2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Starling Marte

Starling Marte

Following an All-Star campaign in 2016, the buzz around Marte in 2017 was high, especially if he could regain the power stroke from recent seasons. However, he was hit with an 80-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs, hurting many fantasy owners for over half of the fantasy season. In 77 games last season, he hit seven home runs and stole 21 bases, which would have equated to double-digit home runs and approaching 40 stolen bases. From 2013-2015, Marte hit at least 12 home runs with 30 stolen bases and a .280 average each season. While the power regressed in 2016, the batting average skyrocketed to .311, due in large part to an outlandish .380 BABIP.

With the suspension behind him and a full season roaming center field for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the outlook on Marte is rather mixed.

For starters, a soft contact rate of 29 percent last season is worrisome in and of itself, considering that his career high beforehand was 21.1 percent. Additionally, his hard hit percentage dropped to 26.2 percent, nearly three percentage points below his previous career worst. In fact, of players with at least 300 plate appearances last season, there was only one player (Jarrod Dyson) that had a higher soft contact rate than Marte. One. Eins. Uno.

The high rate of soft contact and lack of consistent line drives certainly explains why his ISO has declined each year since 2014. Despite the decreased ISO, his slugging percentage remained in the .440-.460 range, but the bottom fell out last year to a measly .379. Could the bottoming out of many of Marte’s numbers in 2017 be justified that an 80-game hiatus in the middle of the year? It could be, but a 28.4 soft contact percentage over 100 plate appearances in September in October isn’t encouraging. In fact, as their careers have progressed, in terms of exit velocity, there isn’t all that much separating the likes of Marte, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton.

A guy with Marte’s speed is incredibly value in all fantasy formats, seeing as he’s just one of a handful of guys currently playing that has stolen 40 or more bases in two seasons, with the potential of doing it in 2018 as well. Pittsburgh lets him run and so far in spring training, things are looking on the up and up for Marte. At the time of writing, in 15 games, Marte has 17 hits, seven of which have gone for extra bases, and three of those have sailed over the fences. Additionally, he’s a perfect 6-for-6 on the base paths, which is just icing on the cake at this point. Marte is hitting .362, but his OBP is just .388, because he doesn’t walk and he never really has throughout his career. His 5.9 BB% in 2017 was the second highest of his career (6.1% in 2014). There are a lot of if’s with Marte, but if he were to walk a few more times, that would help save any sort of batting average regression he were to sustain if his BABIP were to remain around last season’s .324.

Is expecting 20 home runs out of Marte realistic in 2018? Not quite. Is expecting a .311 batting average like he displayed in 2016 realistic? Probably not. What about 40 steals? Absolutely. That is certainly well in the realm of possibility. He doesn’t strikeout a bunch, which certainly helps, and hitting around the likes of Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell is better than what many may believe. He’s been slipping in drafts, and while we don’t want to fully buy into spring training, Marte has been inspiring plenty of faith in fantasy owners. If your league hasn’t drafted yet, he may enter the top 12 outfielders in terms of pull on draft day, but he should be able to perform as such.

Currently, he’s the 14^th outfielder off the board per the Mock Draft Army and with a .285 average, 13 home runs and a minimum of 40 steals, he should easily pay off the draft capital that was invested in him. In the current state of fantasy baseball, speed is incredibly value, and if Marte wasn’t such an established threat on the base paths, his ADP would likely fall tenfold. However, he can run and he does it well, and Pittsburgh has shown no inclination of slowing him down.

In 2018, fantasy owners can expect the line mentioned in the paragraph above. With a batting average around .285 and 13 long balls, Marte should have a floor of about 35 stolen bases, with an upside of closer to 50 stolen bases.