2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Cody Allen

Cody Allen

The emergence of Andrew Miller in Cleveland led many to believe that Cody Allen’s tenure as the team’s closer was in jeopardy, due to the fact that Allen didn’t carry the nasty stuff that was in Miller’s arsenal. However, Allen’s workload has remained incredibly consistent over the last three seasons. He’s appeared in at least 67 games each of the past four seasons, notching at least 67.1 innings in each of those, while registering 30 or more saves in three of those four campaigns.

During this time as the Cleveland closer, Allen has posted an ERA below 3.00 each season, while posting a K/9 of 11.5 or higher each season. His strikeout rate may surprise many, but he doesn’t get the love of other top flight closers, despite really pitching like one over the past couple seasons.

Over the last four seasons, among qualified relief pitchers, Allen ranks….

Sixth in innings pitched and strikeouts.

Eighth in WAR.

Ninth in saves.

22^nd in ERA.

Is that surprising? He rarely gets the credit he should, and even though he doesn’t have the elite skills of a Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, Allen is a good, consistent closer at a position that arguably has the most parity over recent seasons. Sure, he’s had a losing record each of the last three seasons, but he’s averaging a hair under four blown saves per year, which is far from terrible. Allen blew four saves last season, which was the same as Boston’s Craig Kimbrel, Colorado’s Greg Holland and New York’s Chapman.

At a brutally fickle position in fantasy baseball, consistency is key, and Allen surely checks that box.

The strikeout rate is above-average and perhaps better than most people want to admit and/or realize. His 33.4 strikeout percentage over the last three years is about eight percent lower than Jansen and Kimbrel, but it’s better than other popular closers like Roberto Osuna (29.7 percent) and Alex Colome (25.8 percent). Allen won’t ever likely strike out 100 guys in a season, or post strikeout rates along the likes of Kimbrel and Jansen, but he’s far from a liability in that department. Slot him in for around 90 strikeouts and a K/9 that overs around 11.0. Pretty solid.

What are the knocks on Allen?

Like many pitchers with decent strikeout stuff, control can become a problem for the 29-year-old reliever. His struggles are directly indicative of his control, and whether or not he is issuing free passes. For example, in March and April of last season, he had a K/BB ratio of 20:1, but in May, his 12:7 K/BB ratio resulted in a 4.22 ERA. However, his 7.5 BB% was the lowest mark of his career, which bodes well for his 2018 outlook.

Typically with closers, strikeouts and groundballs are the way to go. Well, Allen doesn’t generate groundballs all that often. In 2016, he had a huge spike in ground balls and fewer fly balls, not to mention a .232 BABIP that resulted in a sparkly 2.51 ERA. However, in 2017, his batted ball marks returned closer to the career norms, and in fact, were his third-lowest and second-highest ground ball and fly ball rates respectively in his career. His marks in 2018 will be much closer to his career 0.83 GB/FB ratio, compared to 2016’s outlier season of 1.26 GB/FB.

Despite the success of the Cleveland Indians in recent seasons, they are one of the league’s worst in terms of save opportunities. Take a look at the team’s save opportunities and ranking in the league over the past handful of years.

Believe it or not, the Indians have presented their closer the fewest of second-fewest save opportunities in each of the last three seasons. With a loaded pitching staff, elite swingman Andrew Miller and another above-average offense, save opportunities could be among the league’s fewest yet again in 2018. The AL Central is much weaker than in years past, so that’s worth noting as well. Sure, Miller will take a couple of saves from Allen here and there, but even with limited opportunities in recent years, Allen’s ability to close out ball games gives him a reliable floor in fantasy formats.

Terry Francona is locked in with Allen in the ninth-inning and the thought of Miller becoming the full-time closer is a distant memory. At the very least, Allen remains a reliable, consistent closer in fantasy formats in 2018 and is capable of being your lead bullpen arm. While he does strikeout batters at an above-average rate, pairing him up with a higher-upside strikeout arm could create a lethal back end of your fantasy bullpen. Concurrently, his floor in terms of saves and effectiveness could balance out such volatility with guys like Corey Knebel, Edwin Diaz, Ken Giles, etc. He’s never eclipsed 35 saves in his career, but even if that trend continues, his floor of 30 saves is more than what can be said about the majority of closers in Major League Baseball.

At a brutally fickle position in fantasy baseball, consistency is key, and Allen certainly checks that box.