Anthony Rendon

Age:27
Bats/Throws:R/R
Height/Weight:6'1", 195 lbs
Position:Third Base

The affinity for Anthony Rendon as a viable fantasy asset came after a breakout 2014 campaign where Rendon hit 21 home runs, stole 17 bases, scored 111 runs, drove in 83 runs and posted a quality .824 OPS as a key member of the Washington offense. The praise and evaluation on Rendon was high in 2015, but he struggled mightily, disappointing anyone and everyone. The following season was a nice bounce back campaign for Rendon, which was the first stepping stone to a huge 2017 season.

Last year, Rendon set career highs in home runs (25), RBI (100), doubles (41), batting average (.301), on-base percentage (.403), slugging percentage (.533) and OPS (.937). Rendon will turn 28 in June, which places him in the prime of his professional career. When a player sets so many career highs in one season, the obvious comment is to beware regression with that particular player. However, that’s not the case with Rendon. In fact, he could actually post even better numbers in 2018.

In spring training thus far, Rendon leads the Nationals in at-bats out of the cleanup spot in the lineup. Daniel Murphy has been out of action, but even upon his return, he could hit fifth in the Washington lineup, with Rendon in between him and Bryce Harper. This move would make sense, because slotting Rendon in at the four spot would prevent two lefties (Harper and Murphy) back-to-back in the lineup.

Rendon isn’t going to run as much as he did in recent years, so a move to the four spot wouldn’t hurt his stolen base totals much at all. He’ll still come close to 10 on the year, but the days of approaching 20 seem to be in his past. This potentially permanent move would result in increased RBI opportunities for Rendon, considering the guys ahead of him in the lineup are Adam Eaton (.358 career OBP), Turner (.348 career OBP) and Harper (.386 career OBP). The 27-year-old third baseman could push for 110+ RBI in 2018.

The three aforementioned guys have a knack for getting on base and in 2017, Rendon hit .315 and .375 with men on base and men in scoring position respectively. It wasn’t luck (.314 BABIP in 2017, .312 for his career), but more so a product of being focused at the plate and having a very efficient season.

He made good contact more often than not and avoided soft contact per usual in 2017. His 13 percent soft contact rate was the 18th-lowest in baseball, while his 52.8 percent medium contact rate was 18th-best in baseball, tied with Houston’s MVP Jose Altuve. In terms of hard hit percentage, Rendon (34.3 percent) was comparable to Anthony Rizzo (34.4 percent), Andrew Benintendi (34.3 percent) and Brian Dozier (34.1 percent). In the image below (via Baseball Savant), you can see that softly hit balls (blue-colored) are few and far between in his spray chart from last season.

Rendon has no split weakness, hitting both lefties and righties equally throughout his career. He’s a career .306 hitter against southpaws, and a career .272 hitter against right-handers. There’s only a five point difference in his batting average at home compared to on the road, and while he tends to heat up when the weather warms, he’s not a slow starter by any means.

Washington’s everyday third baseman walked more times than he struck out last season, thanks to being more disciplined at the plate and not chasing bad pitches. His O-Swing% dropped by nearly full two points, and he cut his swinging strike percentage down over a full point. These sort of adjustments likely don’t get enough praise, but it’s a huge factor as to why Rendon posted his first .300+ batting average in 2017.

While Rendon’s average draft position in the Mock Draft Army is 38.77 and has him as the sixth third-baseman off the board, he tends to drop to seventh, sometimes getting selected behind Houston’s Alex Bregman. Rendon will cost you a third or fourth round pick in 15-team formats, but he has the opportunity to be worth every penny and then some. If the rest of your league is wary of taking him due to the lack of perceived upside after such a fantastic season, let them believe that.

Buy into the fact that he could serve as the team’s cleanup hitter for the majority of the season, responsible for driving in Eaton, Turner and Harper. He was an elite performer in 2017, and an increased role and prominence in the Washington lineup should produce more elite counting stats on par with his performance. The 27-year-old will have ample at-bats with runners on base and despite such an electric 2017 campaign, he could best many of his numbers this season. His floor for 2018 is very high, making him a high-floor, yet relatively high-upside selection.