MLB ADP Trends and Analysis: Gardner vs. Benintendi

As always, Happy Monday! No better way to start the work week than by taking five to ten minutes away from that Excel spreadsheet or intricate software and read this article, highlighting some ADP trends we see between Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army and the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

In this week’s installment, we compare two rivals that have a vast difference in their average draft positions, yet their 2017 stats weren’t very different. Additionally, with the industry ranting and raving about Arizona pitchers with the humidor in full effect, what happens with an elite hitter at Chase Field? Last but not least, with Jake Arrieta signing a multi-year deal with the Phillies, what will happen to his average draft position in the coming days? Weeks?

Discrepancy Between a Boston and New York Outfielder

You might know the names that are about to be compared, but it’s worth noting, given somewhat similar production at far different prices. There is a pretty simple reason for the large discrepancy, but we’ll ignore that for the time being, but don’t worry, I promise we will come back to it.

Consider the following:

Aside from some RBI production and run totals last season, these two guys were similar producers in numerous statistical categories in 2017. However, the outfielder in Boston is going around 130 picks before the outfielder in the Bronx.

Here’s the kicker: What if I told you that the outfielder in Boston was 11 years younger than his counterpart in pinstripes? AHHH it makes sense now.

Brett Gardner was very good last season and enjoyed a nice power surge from a disappointing 2016. However, in his 34-year-old season, he’s clearly well beyond his prime and on the downturn of his career. On the other hand, Andrew Benintendi, a third-round fantasy pick in 15-team formats this year, is on the rise in his young career and like Gardner, will hit near the top of one of the league’s most potent offenses.

Given that Benintendi is still ascending the ranks, it’s no surprise he goes much higher than Gardner, but in 2018, even with some regression, Gardner is a poor man’s Andrew Benintendi. At a reduced rate with a few less counting stats, you can do much worse than Gardner and you shouldn’t be upset if yourself if the likely leadoff hitter in the Bronx is your third or fourth outfielder.

What to do with Paul Goldschmidt?

As mentioned in the introductory paragraph, the humidor talk has increased the evaluation on Arizona pitchers, including Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke, Taijuan Walker and Zack Godley. Additionally, the humidor could hurt the home run totals of some mid-tier power guys like A.J. Pollock. Other hitters’ names have come up, but there has been minimal talk about Paul Goldschmidt, arguably the best hitter and most potent offensive weapon in the Arizona lineup.

Despite the humidor news, Goldschmidt remains the No. 3 pick in the Mock Draft Army, behind Mike Trout and Jose Altuve. In the Mock Draft Army, the Arizona first baseman has yet to fall below the seventh pick in the draft. However, things are a bit different in the NFBC, where Goldy is No. 5, with Trea Turner and Nolan Arenado being selected ahead of him. Additionally, Goldschmidt has fallen as low as the 17^th overall pick.

Say the humidor drops the stadium to a neutral field, because in all honesty, the humidor won’t negate all the home runs and big flies to travel six rows deep in the grandstands. Is Goldschmidt going to see his home run total drop by 15-20 this season? No, because that just seems too steep. Could it knock it down by anywhere from five to eight? Perhaps, sure, but that still places Goldschmidt in the 27-30 home run range. He’s still going to approach 20+ stolen bases and his batting average and OBP floor are incredibly value in any format.

The corner infielder can spray the ball to all parts of the field and he rarely makes soft contact. In fact, he only makes soft around just 11 percent of the time, meaning he generates medium or hard contact nearly nine out of every 10 times when making contact! That’s exceptional to say the least!

Furthermore, his PwrSpd rating of 24.0 led the league in 2017 and his 5.8 WAR was eighth-best in the National League. While the humidor may damper some of his offensive numbers, it doesn’t warrant him sliding too far in fantasy drafts. If you pick in the back half of your draft and Goldschmidt falls to you, be incredibly grateful and don’t think twice about adding him to your roster.

Jake Arrieta’s ADP Moving Forward Will…

Rise. No doubt about it. His current ADP in the Mock Draft Army is 88.40, while his mark in NFBC is 101.50. Rostering him at such a price was rather risky, considering he wasn’t on a team and there were doubts as to whether or not he would sign before the season started. However, Arrieta, the 2015 Cy Young winner, inked a multi-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, making Citizen’s Bank Park is home stadium. Yes, the stadium certainly skews to the hitters, but all in all, this is actually a fairly good landing spot.

In the National League East, the Nationals are the only ball club with a consistently imposing offensive presence. The Atlanta Braves have plenty of potential behind Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, but they are prone to slumps and inexperience could loom large in Atlanta. The Mets’ offense is far from daunting and the Marlins cleaned house this offseason. While the ball park itself wasn’t the best landing spot, this is a good division to pitch in, given the dearth of offensive firepower.

Arrieta was the 23^rd starting pitcher off the board, on average, in the Mock Draft Army, but given this signing, he’ll likely approach the upper-teens, passing the likes of Houston’s Gerrit Cole and Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani.