The SMART System and Rules of Engagement for 2021
There is a great debate out there in the fantasy sports community about whether strategy is important. Many terrific fantasy sports experts stick to their values and projections and say with absolute conviction: “let the draft come to you.” While we respect those of our peers who follow that path, when we hear that, we turn into John and Jeremy Ryan of Wedding Crashers fame and think “stop projecting” (see what I did there?). Seriously, we have found that we need a system, a set of guiding principles and a plan that stays true to those principles in order to succeed in the cutthroat world of fantasy baseball. Not surprisingly (at least to us), when we stick to our SMART System, things tend to go well. When we don’t, well, it gets ugly in a hurry. Stated another way that loyal readers and listeners will understand: “never ever leave your wingman”. That is simple Top Gun code for stick to what works, stick the fundamentals and stay SMART. Admittedly it is not always easy to stay SMART but if you want to maximize your chances of winning a fantasy baseball title in 2021, play SMART and follow the Rules of Engagement (after all, now channeling Tom Skerritt’s “Viper,” “those rules exist for your safety and the safety of your fantasy baseball team”).
S in SMART Stands for Scarcity
Each year, different positions or categories in different formats are scarce. The first step is to identify those scarce positions/categories and adjust the prices that you pay. By successfully rostering a top-flight producer at a scarce position, you gain an immediate advantage over your opponents and avoid bottom feeding in the waiver trough trying to find someone to give you anything at that weak position. Warning: paying for scarcity does not mean paying for mediocrity. Rather, it means paying a scarcity premium for top quality players or proven performers at scarce positions. In 2020, we ended up with a lot of José Abreu given the weakness of first base.
Scarcity also looks at scarce categories like steals.This means go the extra money for guys who will get you those swipes while producing in other categories (like Trevor Story , José Ramírez , Francisco Lindor and more). Otherwise, you will either be at the bottom of a category or be forced to roster the one trick pony like Myles Straw whose swipes may be nice but bottom 5% HR and RBI will not.
M in SMART Stands for Management
Management means managing not only the draft but the entire season. In the draft, that means religiously following the SMART system and the Rules of Engagement. Specifically, it is critical to have a plan AND contingency plans. One should never be so surprised by the currents of a draft or auction that you are forced to deviate from your plan or one of your contingency plans. Bottom line here is that if you make reasonable plans, you will never ever have to leave your wingman! If you plan on paying $20 each for Fernando Tatis and Mookie Betts , well, that plan will not work. You want both those guys, you better budget around 90 and stay close to that range. You get the point. One thing Rick Wolf and I have been doing over the last couple of years that has really helped is make a list of the guys we WANT at certain price levels rather than guys we think are just properly priced at those levels. Managing your auction or draft in this manner allows you to take full advantage and roster the guys you believe in. In other words, don’t just budget by numbers, budget by numbers with lists of players you actually like and think you can get at those numbers. If the guy is not on your list, don’t reach. After all, it took you three months to make that carefully crafted list so why would you throw all that work away on a split-second whim?
As noted above, many fantasy experts advocate that you “let the draft come to you” or “take what the draft gives you.” Ha! That always reminds me of the old TV commercials where the announcer solemnly states, “do not try this at home.” Yes, if you are one of the true greats like Fantasy Alarm’s Adam Ronis, or Jason Grey, Steve Gardner, or the late great Lawr Michaels, you can probably react on the fly and survive “trying this [in your] home [league].” Rick Wolf and I cannot do it and if readers are being honest, you know most of you cannot either.
Management in season means watching all the news and not being afraid to make a move to make your team better. Specific steps to take include: 1) track prospects that may be coming up and if your league allows (like Tout Wars), grab them before they come up; 2) search for spot starts for good teams and those in good parks against bad teams; 3) find the vultures – watch who managers bring in when the game is tied as they will get more cheap wins; 4) spot playing time changes by tracking injuries/poor play; and 5) watch who your competitors cut and see if the advanced metrics portend a rebound (i.e., if a player is cut because his ERA is way above his norm yet his BABIP is inflated and strand rate suppressed, you may have a waiver wire opportunity).
A in SMART Stands for Anchors
Before the draft, identify and target specific starting pitchers who will give you production in the four non-save categories. As a general rule, it is safer to make substantial investments in hurlers who throw hard. Simply put, those who throw gas get away with a lot more mistakes and are more likely to jump to their next level and thus yield a bargain. Remember, do not invest too much in pitchers who have only done it once or worse, not at all. Anchor means a pitcher who is as sure of a thing as there is to start atop your rotation and stay healthy to toss a substantial number of innings. Where have you gone Mike Mussina? A lonely fantasy sports nation turns its lonely eyes to you! Bottom line here: anchor doesn’t mean get the best pitcher in baseball as the cost is often way out of whack. A classic candidate for Anchor this year once again is Walker Buehler , a pitcher who will not likely go in the top 3 but has great stuff, strong years under his belt and plays on a championship team that will earn him wins (oh and his 2020 “down” year was 42K in 36 IP with a WHIP under 1.00).
R in SMART Stands for Relievers
Get a steady solid closer on a good team that throws hard. I know that many say do not pay for saves. Ok, once again, we do not agree. Pay for your one closer and then speculate thereafter. Make sure that you have at least two other relief pitchers that either get saves or are second in line – preferably on teams with shaky closers or on bad teams that will trade their closer by July 31. If you did that last year and rostered Matt Barnes or Ryan Pressly you got yourself a bargain second and third closers.
T in SMART Stands for Team
A very important part of the SMART system is to make sure that when in doubt, pick the player from a better team. Good teams score more runs making it easier for hitters to get RBI/runs. Good teams also provide more opportunity for pitchers to get wins/saves. Plus, players on good teams do not get traded to be backups or set up men in July.
The Rules of Engagement
No rule is absolute but these will help in staying focused and making good decisions at the draft and all year long.
Age Matters: When looking at your big money/high draft pick selections, pay for prime players (loosely defined as 26-32) with a proven track record. Players without a track record may produce full value but why risk it? 2019 Vladimir Guerrero provides the perfect example. Despite not having seen a pitch that counts in the major leagues, Vladito was going for big bucks and in early rounds in 2019. Those who violated the Rules of Engagement and paid the price were “punished” to the tune of 15 HR and a .272 average. Neither of those numbers is terrible but hardly the stuff of a third-round pick or $20+ player. Stated another way, that investment suffered a loss as you passed on some really good more reliable players to own Vladito that year. This year, that player could be Kyle Tucker . I have seen him ranked as a 3rd round pick in a 15-team mixer. I like the player and the skills but no way am I paying third round value for a guy with only 300 MLB plate appearances and a batting average in those 300 PA under .270.
For your mid-range investments, focus on young players with decent baselines and more than 1000 ABs or 300 IP but who have yet to reach full potential. Those players made the majors at a very young age precisely because they are that talented. Once they have the experience to go with that talent, they break out. You time it right, you profit.
Injuries Matter: Do not invest heavily in players who have undergone off-season surgery or who are oft-injured. Predicted medical recoveries do not always go according to plan. It may sound simple but never forget that injury prone players get injured. Note, this Rule does not say do not draft such players at all, it simply means do not pay full price. For example, if you think a healthy Aaron Judge will be worth $40+, do not pay $40 (he simply seems to always miss time) but be prepared to pounce at $30. I always shake my head when I hear “if Giancarlo Stanton did not get hurt, I would have run away with it.” Yeah, who could have seen that coming?
Big Money Free Agent Signings Matter: Do not pay big bucks for free agents who signed big money deals to play in a new city. Same rule applies to those traded to a new team. Adjustments (to a new city, new teammates, new place to live, etc.) take a couple of months and as a result, year-long stats suffer. [Note that the same rule as above applies. Be ready to pounce at a discount on the big money free agents, just do not pay full freight.] I have seen projections that predict very big things for George Springer in Toronto (or Buffalo or Dunedin or wherever they call home) but I am not going to pay the price in 2021.
Throwing Gas Matters: Do not invest anything but a very late round pick or end game $1 (if that) on a Devin Smeltzer type (no offense Devin). Hard throwers are more consistent roto performers and easier to track. Plus, Ks come from hard throwers with late movement. Thus, a hard thrower is much more likely to become a K pitcher and one less reliant on his fielders.
Upside Matters: All late round picks and low dollar amount players should be those with upside and not aging veterans that you could write down their max stats now.
Hype Matters: Do not pay full value for predicted but as yet realized upside – instead pay for baseline performance with the indicators of a breakout.
Protection Matters – Ratio Protection That Is: In the average categories (BA, WHIP, ERA and if you play OPS, OBP), do not take any players at high values that will cripple your ratios. There is always another player there.
Home Park Matters: You need to get a discount on Coors Field and Camden Yards Pitchers. Look at Ballpark Ratings for other examples.
Speed Matters: Take one trick pony speed only guys if you get a huge discount. It is better to fill your roster with players who run some so that you have a balanced approach to speed and do not become reliant on one player (usually one who does not help in other categories).
Conclusion: The SMART system and the Rules of Engagement will not guarantee you a fantasy baseball title. What they will do is provide critical structure to your draft preparation, actual drafting, trading and in-season management. What the SMART system and Rules of Engagement will do is give you the best chance to be celebrating with a Yoo-Hoo shower this October!