Fantasy Baseball The Week That Was: June 17
Glenn Colton takes an in-depth look at the past week of the MLB season and goes over how everything turned out for fantasy baseball owners.
German Márquez : German Márquez got a win at home Saturday but that is where the good news ends. He tossed five and two-thirds innings giving up seven earned runs and a whopping fourteen base runners. Yes FOURTEEN. On the year, Marquez has an unsightly 4.57 ERA (especially given his draft day cost) but a decent 1.23 WHIP. The real issue is how bad he has been at home. On the year, Marquez has a 5.70 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home. Ewwww. So, avoid him at home right? Duh! My big question is why is anyone surprised at his Coors struggles? Last year, Marquez’s home ERA was almost two runs higher than on the road and his home WHIP was a full half a point higher than on the road. Lesson – do not overpay for Coors pitchers! Strategy – hope he does well in this next two road starts (though one is at the Dodgers) and then sell!
Jordan Yamamoto : Jordan Yamamoto had a very good debut tossing seven shutout innings against the Cardinals this week. It is a nice story but not one you should buy for your 2019 fantasy teams. Yamamoto skipped AAA entirely. While in AA this year, he posted a decent ERA of 3.58 but a FIP of over 4.00 – in AA. Moreover, Yamamoto was not striking out a batter per inning in AA, so why would one think he will immediately rack up the Ks in the majors. He probably will not. Finally, he was walking almost 3.5/9 innings in AA which does not bode well for a rookie pitcher facing hitters with far more trained eyes than those in AA. Bottom line – feel free to stash him in a keeper or dynasty league but pass in the redrafts.
Tyler Beede : Tyler Beede ’s stat line this week was a mixed bag. The four earned runs in fewer than five innings were not good but the seven strikeouts were solid. In the end, this entry really is not about what Beede did last week but what he has shown below the radar this year. Here is the good news: velocity up over two MPH; swinging strike rate is up to over 12%; first pitch strike rate is up to close to 70%; ground ball rate is up to close to 50%; FIP is three full runs lower than ERA (yes three); strand rate and BABIP show he has been very, very unlucky; chase rate is up; and line drive rate is way down. Yes, the roto results have not been there but given his pedigree (14th pick overall), good home park, and the advanced metrics signs of development, I am stashing Beede where I can.
Aaron Bummer : Aaron Bummer notched his first save Thursday night, closing the door on the Yankees. Will he supplant Colome in the next 30 days? Probably not. Does he have the skills, despite being left-handed, to provide value now and take over as closer on July 31 once Colome finds his new home on a contender? Yep. Here is why: Bummer has posted a ground ball rate of over 71% on the year; his velocity is up over two MPH to over 95; his batting average against shows he gets both righties and lefties out; his hard hit rate is a miniscule 21%; and his line drive rate is an equally mini 13%. In!
Mike Moustakas : Last week, we wrote: “Mike Moustakas went yard for the 20th time this year Sunday. On the day, Moose was one for four with a run, two RBI and of course, the dinger. With a .275 average, an OPS well over .900 and 53 RBI to go with those 20 dongs, Moose is just killing it. Indeed, he has 4 dingers over the last four days so he is hardly cooling off. The question is whether 2019 is the year Moose finally puts it all together. I say yes. He is in year two in Milwaukee so he is obviously more comfortable. Moreover, this is his first year playing a full year in a hitter’s park. Finally, the advanced metrics are Moose-friendly: highest hard hit rate of his career; highest line drive rate of his career; and a BABIP that actually signals a bit of bad luck in those impressive numbers. If the Moose owner in your league thinks Moose is performing over his head, pounce. I am all in!” Boy, is the Moose ever loose! Since this article appeared last Monday, through Saturday, Moose raised his average on the year from .275 to .280 and increased his hitting streak to nine games. Pay the full freight if there is anyone actually willing to move the Moose.
Finally, the moment you have been waiting for (sort of) -- Schultz says: “Politely speaking, Yankee fans are gushing over the impending return of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge with visions of round trippers and post-season glory dancing in their heads. (To say nothing of the recent trade for Edwin Encarnación ). From a roto-standpoint, Judge and Stanton's roto-owners have also been agnostically awaiting the Yankee sluggers return with equal fervor, seeking some return on what was assuredly a significant draft/auction day price. Getting a returning superstar back might possibly be the most existentially satisfying occurrence in any roto-season . . . at least until the injury prone slugger goes down again. (In case Yankee fans are too giddy to recognize it, Schultz is learning the art of throwing shade).
Out on the west coast, the A's are expecting Sean Manaea to return to the rotation shortly after the All-Star break. Although nowhere near the game-changing needle mover as any of the returning Yankees, it's easy to forget that before shoulder surgery ended his 2018 campaign, the talented lefty was started to live up to the potential that has tantalized roto-owners for the past couple years. Never a dominating strikeout pitcher, Manaea has the potential to provide late-season stability in the ERA/WHIP categories, provided he doesn't experience any setbacks. Once managers start monitoring late-season inning, this could become extremely significant.
With more immediacy, Scooter Gennett begins a rehab assignment this week, having missed all of 2019 with an unfortunate groin injury. Many thought Gennett's 2017 line of .295, 27 HR, 97 RBI was an outlier. However, last year's .310, 23 HR, 92 RBI established Gennett as a near-elite roto-second basemen, even if the roto-intelligentsia didn't uniformly take notice. Given that Great American Ballpark is one of the most-hitter friendly stadiums in baseball, it's worth checking out his availability in your league.”
Response: Good points all though I would say Schultz already has his black belt in throwing shade!