Mike Zunino’s huge Saturday night highlights the Memorial Day edition of the Week That Was.

Mike Zunino:  Don’t look now but the Mariner backstop is on fire.  Saturday Z hit one of the many grand slams of the night Saturday, adding 7 (yes 7) RBI for good measure.  Over his last seven games through Saturday, Zunino is hitting a cool .474.  Will he challenge for a batting title? Heck no.  Will he hit his dingers?  You bet.  The real question is how much to invest.  Answer – a pretty fair amount.  Zunino seems like he has been around forever but he is just 26 and has already amassed well over 1,000 AB in the show.  It would hardly be a surprise for him to emerge as a post-hype sleeper passed over by many after his surprisingly cold April.  Want some statistical backup for the investment? You got it.  In May, Zunino hit the ball hard – well over 40% (Miggy territory), and made precious little soft contact (approx. 6% according to fangraphs).  I am buying and you should too.  

Nick Castellanos:  Castellanos went yard Saturday and scored two runs in the Tiger win.  The HR was only his 5th and fantasy owners can hardly be psyched about his .214 average through Saturday.  Buying opportunity!  Buying Opportunity!  Castellanos may not reach the heights many (including me) predicted for him this year.  However, he will be much better than he has been so far in 2017.  The batting average will surely rise.  Nick is hitting the ball very hard (47%), rarely hitting it softly (under 10%), and yet his average is in the toilet.  I am sure the fact that his BABIP is 50 points below his career average has something to do with it.  Want another reason for optimism?  Ok, his walk rate is up a few ticks which shows increased maturity at the plate.  As the weather continues to warm, so will the Tigers 3B.  Buy.   

Jordan Zimmermann:  Staying with the Tigers, Jordan Zimmermann pitched six innings of one run ball to get the win Saturday – his fifth of the year.  Sell high alert!  Sell high alert!  As much as I want JZ to succeed, I do not see it.  His ERA is an ugly 5.98 but the FIP is even worse at over 6 so no relief there.  What about the skills indicators? Nope, no help there – the swinging strike percentage is a pedestrian 8% and the ground ball rate is low at 30%.  Oh, and hitters are squaring him up with a hard contact rate over 38% (30 is about average).  I think you get the point.  Sell high with the nice outing and 5 wins while you still can.

Alex Cobb:   Alex Cobb was roasted Saturday, giving up 9 ER and 14 hits in just 5 innings (and no, not in Colorado or Baltimore, but in the pitcher park in Seattle).   Eek!  On the year, Cobb has a 4.52 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a K rate of only 6.35/9.  Frankly, there is not a lot to get psyched about here.  The swinging strike rate is very low (worse than Jordan Zimmermann’s), FIP/xFIP/SIERA all say the ERA is accurate at around 4.50, and hitters are squaring him up just as much as they are squaring up JZ above.  Cobb gets Oakland next week.  If you own Cobb, hope for a good outing and sell while there is any market for his fantasy baseball services. 

Aaron Hicks:   Last week we wrote: “Aaron Hicks filled the stat sheet Sunday with a hit, run, rbi, sb and even a bb for good measure.  With Jacoby Ellsbury on the shelf, Hicks will play every day.  If he is somehow available in your league, remedy that.  Hicks is off to a strong start in semi-regular playing time hitting .290+ with 8 dingers, 21 RBI, a whopping .984 OPS and 7 SB thrown in for good measure.  Is this a fluke? No, Hicks is an athletic 27 year old OF hitting in a good park and lineup who made the majors at the tender age of 23 and is just coming into his own now.  Want evidence of signs of maturity?  Ok, his BB rate has jumped from 8 to 19%.  Satisfied?  How many times have we pointed to that Rule of Engagement that tells you players who have already notched 800-1000 at-bats before age 27 are players likely to find the next level?  Well, Hicks is one of them.  Buy!”  Well through Saturday of this week, Hicks has hit a cool .400+ with 10 RBI.  Believe us now?

And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “There's an insult in fantasy football that only roto-aficionados understand as it plays on the intense statistical analysis that underlies the narrow-minded comparison of rotisserie sports to Dungeons & Dragons. Whenever someone wants to insult a receiver or running back that appears to have respectable overall statistics, it's fun to point out "yeah, but it was all in one game." Unless you're talking about Jonas Gray, it's usually an unfair comment. In roto-baseball terms, the insult doesn't really carry over, if someone could hit 40 home runs in one game (or even one week), it wouldn't really matter if they bunted in every other at-bat. That doesn't mean that there aren't one category wonders that pose unique problems for the savvy roto-owner.

The poster child for this dilemma mans centerfield for the Cincinnati Reds. When healthy, Billy Hamilton is unquestionably the greatest speed asset in the game with overly-optimistic prognosticators always speaking wistfully of the speedster reaching the vaunted Henderson realm and hitting triple digits in the stolen base category. Only problem with Hamilton meeting such lofty expectations (besides his fragility) is the pesky baseball rule that you have to be on base to steal the next one. A dreadful hitter whose lifetime OBP is below .300, Hamilton's 28 steals (11 more than Dee Gordon's second place 17) and 37 runs (10 behind league leader Paul Goldschmidt) come at a dear cost, a .251 average, a single home run and 17 RBIs. Nonetheless, for the team that's not suffering inferiority in those categories, Hamilton can be a tremendous roto-asset for the 2017 season - provided his latest shoulder injury isn't serious.

Another statistical conundrum is presented by the bizarre numbers being put up Ryan Schimpf. Of his 26 hits (51 behind Charles Blackmon), 14 have left the ball park - a Valbuena-like achievement - which puts Schimpf only 4 behind Aaron Judge for the league lead. Normally roto-heads would be salivating over the prospects of garnering 40 homers from their second basemen. However, the drooling ceases when it comes with the potential of extending a .165, 14 HR, 25 RBI and 24 runs to its logical endpoint. Schimpf's power has always been there, however, he struggled to hit .250 over 7 years in the minors so there's no reason to believe he will suddenly become a productive contact hitter. If you can survive the crippling damage Schimpf could inflict to your other categories, he will boost your homer count.”

Response:  Perhaps my favorite Schultz-ism: “pesky baseball rule that you have to be on base to steal the next one.”  Somebody write that down.  Oh, wait, we did.  Ok, seriously, Schultz making roto owners think about total roster construction and category management rather than the fleeting jollies of seeing Hamilton run or Schimpf homer was worth the price of admission.