Keon Broxton heating up and a sell high pitcher highlight this week’s Week That Was.

Keon Broxton:  Keon Broxton went yard Sunday with his fourth round-tripper of the year.  After an abysmal start, the Milwaukee power/speed guy is starting to hit and hit a lot.  Over his last 14 games, Keon is hitting a cool .396 with 3 dingers, 4 swipes and an OPS of 1,150.  Is he suddenly Mike Trout?  No.  Will he have cold streaks?  Yes.  Can he carry a fantasy team when hot?  Yes.  So the question is, will he continue to hit or be that guy who couldn’t hit a lick in April?  Answer – some of both.  This guy is not for those fantasy owners with weak stomachs.  Guys who strike out once every three at bats go into ugly cold streaks.  If you cannot live with that, then sell high now.  If you can, you will have the dingers and swipes in your column by years’ end.  [Note – some reason for hope that he cuts down on the K’s and the see-saw production can be found in the fact that he is going oppo far more often this year].  

George Springer:  George Springer helped put a damper on Derek Jeter day by hitting two dingers in Houston’s Sunday night win.  Springer has been a bit of a puzzle.  On the plus side, he has 9 dingers and a .340 OBP after 6 weeks (the 9 HR projecting out to approximately 35 on the year).  On the down side, Springer has no swipes and a mediocre .261 average.  So, will the real George please stand up?  I think there are good reasons to think Springer will continue to improve and, therefore a good chance he is undervalued in your league.  First, he has a .280 BABIP – a number far depressed from his career norms (translation – he has been unlucky).  Second, his K rate is down and contact rate up.  Third, he is hitting the ball harder (making the low BABIP even more likely to be an aberration).  I am not sure he steals a lot of bases but I am confident the other numbers will be there.  Buy!

Gio GonzalezGio Gonzalez twirled 6 2/3 innings of 1 run ball striking out 5 on Sunday.  On the year, the Nats lefty boasts a sweet 2.47 ERA.  However, there are warning signs.  First, his K/BB sits under 2/1.  Second, his BABIP is a lowly .243 which screams “caution, beware of the correction fast approaching”.  Third, he has an unsustainable strand rate of almost 90%.  Fourth, as if you needed more proof, his groundball, swinging strike and first pitch strike rates are all down from where they were last year – a year in which he posted a 4.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Sell!

Jose Berrios:  Jose Berrios was worth the wait in 2017.  Saturday he went out and pitching 7 and 2/3 innings of one run ball, allowing just two hits.  The real question is what kind of value will he bring in 2017?  I am a bit concerned.  Here is why.  First, he did not get a lot of swings and misses Saturday (and indeed was not getting a lot in AAA).  Second, he did not get that many grounders Saturday or in his AAA starts in 2017.  Third, he was so bad last year in the show that I wonder how the first inevitable bad outing will affect him.  Long term, I am in.  This year, I think he will be overvalued.

Joe Biagini:  Last week we wrote:  “In his first start of the year, Biagini tossed 4 shutout innings.  Yes, one wants more length but it was his first start.  The Jays rotation is a mess with the injuries to Happ, Sanchez, etc.  Moreover, the rotation was never thought of to be the Braves of the 90s anyway.  In comes Joe B with his 95 MPH heater, 7:1 K:BB ratio and WHIP under 1.  Yes, those numbers will rise some in the rotation but those in AL only leagues could do a whole lot worse than banking on a guy who not only has those gaudy numbers but also has skills indicators that back it up, i.e., solid ground ball and first pitch strike rates.  Team CTW owns Joe B in both Tout Wars and LABR-AL so we are in.”  I hope you listened.  In his second start, Joe B tossed 5 shutout innings, walking none in the process.  I give him a stronger “Buy” rating than even last week.  

And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “In the Batman comics, the sociological theory that one bad day can alter the trajectory of one person's life has been explored in a variety of hypothetical scenarios. In Alan Moore's The Killing Joke, it's even posited that that's all it takes to drive someone insane.  In the roto-context, this comes into play when one bad inning destroys a pitcher's entire line and distorts the perception of what's in store for the future.

Any Indians fan or longtime roto-owner of Danny Salazar knows that your view of the Tribe's young hurler often depends on when you check in on him. Early in the night, Salazar has yielded a base runner or two and struck out half a dozen. Check back an hour later, he's given up 4 earned runs and his WHIP has jumped to a high 1.something due to a single bad inning. From a roto-standpoint, it truly doesn't matter whether your pitcher's bad outing results from one bad inning or from a lengthy bout of mediocrity - numbers are numbers and bad stats are simply bad stats. However, when looking towards the future, as any savvy roto-player is wont to do, there's a tremendous difference. Young pitchers that crumble at the first sign of adversity become veteran hurlers by learning how to handle unavoidable bumps in the road. Future roto-studs like Salazar and Seth Manaea have career number inflated by the "one bad inning" conundrum that obscures how well they typically pitch. Doing a little digging an investigating can truly benefit those who thrive by investing at a discount.

In that regard, it's worth noting that Jose Berrios turned in the best outing of his career this Saturday in Cleveland. Along with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, Berrios is a key cog in the Twins' future. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and it looks like his miserable introduction to the bigs in 2016 might be in his rear-view mirror. If it’s not going to cost you dearly, there's potentially great value here for the rest of the season.”

Response:  Now that is more like it – Schultz and I write separately before the pieces are put together and sometimes we disagree.  One of us will be eating crow on Jose Berrios come September!