The Rules of Engagement coming back to haunt those who ignored them highlight this week’s Week That Was.

Loyal readers of this space and loyal listeners to Colton & the Wolfman on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio with Fantasy Alarm President Rick Wolf and me (and with weekly appearances by the First Lady of Fantasy Stacie Stern) know we live by our SMART system and by our Rules of Engagement in managing fantasy sports teams.  One of the key Rules of Engagement is to never pay full value for a big money free agent just starting out in a new home.  In a substantial number of those situations, the big money free agent struggles out of the gate making it impossible for them to return enough value to justify the big price tag required on fantasy baseball draft day.  While there is an exception or maybe two this year, the Rule has once again prevented many a fantasy disaster for those who heeded its teachings.

Zack Greinke:  Yeah, it did not take any Rule for the even moderately sophisticated to figure out that Zack was not going to post a 1.66 ERA or 0.84 WHIP again – especially not in Arizona.  However, there are still those that are surprised he has struggled as much as he has.  Why are they surprised?  The Rules of Engagement foretold the difficulties and disciples just nod knowingly when they read Greinke’s line:  5.26 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.   The good news is that Greinke presents a buying opportunity IF (big IF) you are willing to accept the 2014 version (i.e., 2.71 and 1.15).  Why you ask?  The answer is that the indicators show little difference between 2016 and 2014 – particularly the ground ball and swinging strike rates.  Buy low if you can and be glad someone else ate the bad stats thus far that the Rules of Engagement predicted. 

Justin Upton:  Ok, I admit it.  I like JUp.  However, that is why Rick, Stacie Stern and I strive to never ever leave our wingman and to stick to the Rules of Engagement.  Going into Saturday, Upton had 140 AB (about 1/3 of last year’s total) with a paltry .214 average, only 2 HR and 9 RBI (yes only 9 RBI).  Is he predictably pressing to justify the big contract and endear himself to his new mates?  Oh yeah.  JUp is flailing at everything.  His contact rate has plummeted to 59 percent (even Chris Carter posted a 61 percent last year – a year in which was on the interstate with a .199 average) and Upton’s walk rate has dropped from around 11 percent to under 5 percent.  That is just ugly all around.  You know it – you should have known better!  There really are no signs of improvement to which I can point to give Upton owners hope other than his age (28), history of production and the resurgence of his older brother Melvin (the last one not being serious of course).

Jason Heyward:  Remember – fantasy is not reality.  In real baseball, the real Cubs team is hot and whatever each player is doing to contribute to the whole is working.  However, our game is fantasy and the Rules of Engagement said to discount Heyward.  Those who did not listen have been saddled with a .281 average and NO dingers.  That is one less dinger than Bartolo Colon!  OK, that was not fair.  I imagine Heyward’s wrist is bothering him more than he lets on publicly.  But again, that is the risk of a player in a new home with new teammates trying to justify his worth – they are less likely to admit how bad they are hurting.  Of course, I am guessing about the wrist here but the fact remains that if you paid full value in March for Heyward in fantasy you will be hard-pressed to recoup value on that investment.  (NB: With a 13+% BB rate, Heyward is contributing to the Cubs and to those in OBP leagues).

Scott Kazmir:  Yep, another bad start for another free agent in a new home.  Going into Saturday’s start, the former Mets farmhand had an unsightly 5.54 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9 HR allowed in just 37 innings (7 of which have been hit in distinctly pitcher’s parks).  Eek!  To make matters worse, Kazmir is actually lucky to have those numbers as the low strand percentage says they should be even worse.  Move along.   If you invested full value at the draft table in 2016 remember this when you consider violating the Rules of Engagement next year.  [NB – the solid start that occurred after I wrote this should be seen as a selling window.  Do not get suckered in.]

David Price:  Last week, we wrote:  “Saturday against a Yankee team that has hardly lived up to the moniker Bronx Bombers, Price allowed 6 ER and 10 baserunners in 4.6 innings.  Yuck.  His ERA now sits at 6.75.  Double Yuck.  Often I advise fantasy owners to hold such players if they invested as players do settle in to new situations.  Price is showing an even better swinging strike rate than in year’s past and his ground ball rate is stable.  So, while the fact that Price is sporting an average fastball velocity of over 2mph less than in 2015, has me worried, I still think you have to hold – at least until a good start or two raises the market value.”  Well, in the 12K performance against the Astros this week, Price’s average fastball velocity was back up to 94 (at least according to our friends at fangraphs) which if maintained will erase the aforementioned reason to worry.  That said, it will take a herculean effort for Price to return the huge price tags paid back in March.  

Jordan Zimmermann: On the surface, a 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP are good – really good.  With those numbers, it is hard to argue that JZimm has underperformed in Detroit.  However, a deeper dive shows that he has been lucky as proven by his stratospheric 90 percent strand rate and substantially reduced BABIP.  Indeed, that good luck has covered up a K rate that has dropped to just 5.25 per 9 innings, an increased BB rate, reduced velocity, a reduced ground ball rate, a reduced swinging strike rate and a reduced first pitch strike rate.  I am a big JZimm fan in real life but if you paid full value for him in violation of the Rules of Engagement, consider yourself lucky rather than SMART and sell high while you still can.   

Daniel Murphy: In the interests of fairness and completeness, I have to admit that there are exceptions to every rule and Daniel Murphy is that guy in 2016.  As of Friday night, Murph was hitting a ri-donk-u-lous .405 with 5 HR and 22 runs and RBI.  If you paid full value for Murphy then you got your thrill, tempted fate and won.  Count your blessings and as Lou Brown said to Willie “Mays” Hays in Major League after a silly basket catch: “don’t ever [bleeping] do it again!”   OK, seriously, with a reduced contact rate, increased K rate and a ridiculously elevated BABIP over .430, selling super high might not be a bad plan.  Just sayin'. 

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates -- aka Schultz says: “The conventional and prevailing wisdom at the start of the season recommended that every roto-owner invest heavily in the starting rotations of the New York Mets and the Cleveland Indians. With the Mets already securing a World Series appearance at the expense of the much-salivated-over Chicago Cubs and the Tribe's quartet of vaunted starters armed with an additional year of experience, didn't this seem like a no-brainer. Well, if you are one of the roto-owners who heeded such advice, you may know where this little coda to the Week That Was is going. 

Matt Harvey has been having trouble getting to the last three innings of any game because he can't pitch the middle three nearly as well as he throws the first three. Steven Matz is presently on the shelf with a troublingly vague diagnosis of "arm trouble" and Bartolo Colon - who has been solid - gets more press for defying logic and hitting a home run. Over in the AL, Carlos Carrasco is recovering from a relatively serious hamstring injury, Corey Kluber is off to his habitual slow start and Trevor Bauer is still recovering from being sent to the bullpen amidst the swirl of trade rumors.  Surely, while the roto-owners of Jacob de Grom, Noah Syndergaard and Danny Salazar have to pleased, pundits and prognosticators can't be pleased with the less than 50 percent success rate.

Meanwhile, can anyone recall being advised to hoard the Philadelphia Phillies' pitching staff? I'll wait, while you research that one. Couldn't find it either, could you? Aaron Nola - 2.89 ERA with a 85 WHIP and 58 Ks over 53 innings; Vince Velasquez - 2.70 ERA with .99 WHIP and 49 strikeouts over 43 1/3 innings (granting most of them came in one game) and Jeanmar Gomez has 14 saves. 

If you're an optimist, you believe everything you were told at the beginning of the season and are seeing this as an opportunity to buy low and sell high. If you are a pessimist, you're reveling in Schadenfreude over so much misguided prognostication. I would tell you which one is more likely but I think we've pretty much established that may simply be folly.”

Response:  Who is this Schadenfreude guy? Did he pitch for the Dodgers?  Oh wait, that was Tom Niedenfuer.  All I really want to say is that those of us who spent big FAAB on Jeanmar Gomez should do a collective high five.  Fourteen saves on May 15. Sweet!