There might be snow in various parts of the country but we are playing baseball for real! Drafts are over (I did six) and now it is time to play the game we love. Thanks to the great folks at Fantasy Alarm, I get the honor and privilege of writing for you each week trying to help you achieve fantasy nirvana in October (oh, yeah, the Baron of the Bottom of the Page returns as well – more on that later). So, without further delay, the first Week that Was for 2016:
Kyle Schwarber: In what can only be described as awful news, Kyle Schwarber will miss the entire 2016 season with torn ligaments in his knee. This is not only a loss for the Cubs but a loss for every baseball fan. There is an element of excitement when Schwarber steps to the plate that exists for precious few players in the league. One silver lining for Schwarber – he is young and speed was never his game, so he will be back. The silver lining for the Cubs and for fantasy players alike is that the Cubs are super deep with talent. Many pundits predict that Jorge Soler will be the primary beneficiary of increased playing time and I am pretty sure that is true in the short term. If the talented Cuban import is on your waiver wire, bid and bid big. However, I would not go all in as Javier Baez is due back shortly and he is also a huge talent who, for fantasy purposes, has the advantage of being 2B eligible. Look for Baez to log AB’s in the OF, at 2B, SS, and 1B (and maybe even 3B) making him a super valuable roto-piece. Think Marwin Gonzalez flexibility with superstar potential.
Robinson Cano: Loyal readers know I cannot help but write about Robbie Cano – my roto crush. Did team CTW roster Cano in three leagues? Yep. Are we helplessly biased when it comes to the former Yankee? Yep again. However, Cano has more than earned the love and continues to do so again this year. Through Saturday, the second-sacker has a 1,223 OPS and a 21-game hitting streak. Fluke? I think not. After all, in the second half last year, Cano was a monster hitting .333 with 15 HR, 49 RBI and a 927 OPS. If there is a Cano owner in your league who thinks s/he is selling high, jump in with both feet. Cano was, and continues to be, a roto-stud.
Eugenio Suarez: Eugenio Suarez went 2-for-3 with 3 RBI, 3 runs scored and his third dinger of the year Saturday to lead the Reds to a win over the Pirates (then added a fourth dinger Sunday while I was finishing this draft). While I doubt Suarez will remain this hot, he is a player to watch and one who could well be for real. Last year, Suarez hit a cool .280 with 13 HR in just 372 AB. Suarez will not turn 25 until mid-year. That means his power is still growing – a nice thought for a young player in a hitters’ park on a team that can afford to be patient since they are going nowhere in 2016. Invest.
Avisail Garcia: If you look up "post-hype sleeper" in the dictionary, you will see Avisail Garcia. Well, he woke up Saturday going 2-4 with a three-run homer and two runs scored. Remember when Garcia was dubbed little Miggy (because of his apparent similar appearance to superstar Miguel Cabrera)? Who could live up to that? Yup, no one. However, Garcia need not be nearly that good to help your team win a title. Given that he was supposed to ride the pine and was only rescued by Adam LaRoche’s surprise retirement, Garcia is undervalued. With over 1,000 AB under his belt at the tender age of 25, Garcia is a prime prospect to take a leap to the next level. Grab him from an unsuspecting owner now before it is too late.
Rick Porcello: Considering that he was on the road against the stacked Blue Jays lineup, Rick Porcello pitched pretty well. On the day Saturday, Porcello gave up four runs on seven hits over six innings. However, on the bright side, he mowed down seven against only one walk. I admit that I sat Porcello for this start but I firmly believed he is undervalued this year. His 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP from 2015 are ugly indeed. However, the advanced metrics paint a different picture. The 67 percent strand rate, 14 percent HR per flyball rate and .337 BABIP say he was unlucky. The xFIP backs that up as it was more than a run lower than his ERA at 3.72. When you add in the fact that Porcello actually threw harder last year and that his xFIP in the second half was a very solid 3.23, you have all the makings of a bounce back season. I am buying. You?
CC Sabathia: Sabathia pitched well Saturday, giving up just three runs on four hits against a pretty strong Tigers lineup. When you consider that team CTW nabbed CC on reserve in the Tout Wars 12-team AL only, you realize how little faith folks had in the big man. Personally, I think that judgment was a bit hasty. Yes, I know that a 4.50 ERA is not helpful and that a 1.33 WHIP is well, just as bad. However, people forget that his xFIP says he pitched better at 3.99 and that CC kept his solid GB rate and swinging strike rate. Of course, I am not saying he will be the CC of old – he won’t. However, in AL-only leagues, he will be a valuable commodity who will win a bunch of games with the Yankee offense supporting him.
Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey was atrocious Saturday. While working slowly and letting his fielders freeze, the accidental import allowed six runs on eight hits over just 3 2/3 innings. Seriously, I do not understand this signing at all. Do not be tempted to invest in Pelfrey as the Tigers did. Quick quiz: When was the last time Pelfrey had a WHIP of 1.35 or less. Answer: NEVER. Question 2: How many times has Pelfrey posted an ERA of 4.25 or better in his 10 years? Answer: two. Question 3: How many times in 10 years has Pelfrey posted a K rate of 6 per 9 innings or better? Answer: NEVER. Shall I go on? Didn’t think so.
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And now the moment you may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of the Bottom of the Page pontificates aka Schultz says: “In SchultzWorld, the only event that matches the excitement that accompanies the start of the baseball season each April is the moment when Schultz learns that The Overlord has picked up his option for the upcoming season. Without this little section of the roto-Internet, this penchant for periodically referring to myself in the third person might come across as pretentious.
Without question, the biggest story of the first week of the season has been every roto-pundits use of some variation of the line "The biggest Story in baseball is Trevor Story." While the phenomenal start of the Rockies' rookie shortstop has been extremely noteworthy, it has obscured the similarly astounding commencement of Tyler White's major league career. Unlike Story, who was a highly touted, first round draft pick thrust into a starting role due to Jose Reyes' domestic issues, White was selected in the 33rd round by the Astros and, within the Houston organization, may be a bit of an afterthought. Over the past two seasons, Houston has clearly had their hopes set on Jonathan Singleton emerging as their franchise first baseman and has even hedged their bets with A.J. Reed, a slugger with prolific power. White has undoubtedly turned heads with his .667, 3 HR, 9 RBI debut but it’s worth keeping in mind that (i) this power surge is anomalous to his minor league numbers and (ii) the Astros are eyeing Singleton and/or Reed as their future at first base and DH.
The other significant, though underpublicized, story from Week 1 is the weather. It absolutely bewilders Schultz that with the bevy of teams that play their home games in California and the southern states, MLB persists in scheduling early-April opening dates in Ohio, Illinois and New York. Nonetheless, it's worth keeping in mind that 90 percent of all hitters and 100 percent of all pitchers (all percentages wildly fabricated yet likely accurate) dislike playing baseball in the cold. Before worrying about slow starts and underwhelming first week stats, wait until the weather warms up, there will be plenty of time for panicking later in the season.
Game on, my friends. Game on.
Response: Drat, Schultz came out of the gate on fire. Great stuff and welcome back to the Carlton the Doorman of fantasy sports!