Another self-critical look back at last week highlights this Week’s Week That Was

Mitch Moreland:  Last week we wrote “Mitch Moreland had a nice night Friday going 2-3 with a dinger.  At .300+ with 6 HR and 21 RBI in just 133 AB, Moreland is proving why he was a hot commodity before the injury bug kept biting.  With the contact rate and walk rate up and the K rate down, Moreland looks to have improved upon his skills – skills were good enough to yielded 23 dingers just 2 short years ago.  With the summer months coming to Texas where balls fly out of the yard more than many places, Moreland should produce a lot for fantasy owners whether in AL only or mixed leagues.”  Well in the last week as of Saturday, Moreland hit .375 with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 5 runs.  I call that a win!  Fantasy Lesson:  Guys with track records are still in their prime and who get healthy during the year can be FAAB-u-lous bargains! 

Williams Perez:  Last week we wrote:  “Williams Perez had a clunker Friday giving up 4 runs, 5 hits and 5 BB in just 5 innings.  I still believe.  Why you ask?  Good question.  He throws a lot of groundballs.  In fact with a 55% GB percentage and Andrelton Simmons and Jace Peterson to gobble most of them up, Perez should provide sneaky value in NL only deep leagues.”  Not only did he go out and toss 7 innings with no earned runs, 4 hits, 2 BB, and 5K, he got himself and his fantasy owners a nice cheap save to boot!  Fantasy Lesson:  look for ground ball pitchers on teams with good infield defenses and you will have a guy who rarely gets bombed and often pitches well.  They are not often sexy but they are often productive.

Trevor May:   Last week we wrote: “Trevor May was great this week going 7 shutout innings while giving up just 2 hits and no walks.  Oh and he struck out 9 on the night.  The window is closing on the buy low opportunity but it still exists.  May has a 4.45 ERA that will excite exactly no one.  However, that number will come down as his strand rate and BABIP normalize.  Indeed, it should come down to around where his 2.88 FIP currently sits.  In his last two starts, May has a 2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14K/1BB in 13 innings.  I do not know if he will be THAT good the rest of the way but given the above info, the almost 10% swinging strike rate, improved GB and first pitch strike rate and uptick in velocity, there is little reason to doubt May has arrived this spring.”  What did he do?  He was ok.  May tossed 6 innings of 7 hit ball with 1 ER, 3 BB, and 5K.  In all, a good K rate, good ERA and bad WHIP.   A pitcher who gives up just one run in his start should get a win but his team did not hit for him so no win.  Fantasy Lesson:  If you snoozed last week, wake up and get yourself some May before June ends!

Kyle Gibson:   Last week we wrote:  “Odd night for Kyle Gibson Friday.  The bad news is that he gave up 5 ER in 7 innings.  The good news is that he struck out 9 while walking none.  Gibson has taken a lot of grief in fantasy circles for his low K numbers.  Those 9K could quiet some of that chatter.  However, it remains to be seen whether this big mow down day was an outlier or not.  Other than the K rate, owners have to be happy with Kyle’s 3.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.  So am I as high on Gibson as I am on May?  Unclear.  Yeah, I know that helps.  On the downside is that the strand rate and BABIP say a correction is coming.  However, Gibson’s 53%+ GB rate together with a strong jump in first pitch strike percentage say the solid performances will continue.  In all, I like Kyle but until he K’s more guys consistently, I will take May over him.  [Note, team CTW owns both in Tout Wars and feels pretty good about that back end of the rotation].”  This week, Kyle went out and tossed  6 innings while giving up just 5 hits, 4 ER, 2 BB and 6 K.  The real question after the 9K last week was whether the K’s were real.  So far, they are.  Fantasy Lesson:  With his groundball rate increasing every month this year – all the way to almost 69% in June – there is every reason to think Gibson will continue to be effective.

Alex Rodriguez:  Last week we wrote:  “Let’s leave aside all the politics.  I do not care if you like him or if you don’t but Alex Rodriguez has been a major bargain this year and is likely on a lot of first place teams (indeed, the one team on which I have ARod is leading the league).  Thus far, the should be hall of famer (my view, let’s not get distracted) is hitting .283 with 11 HR, 28 RBI, 32 runs scored and an OPS over .900.  Solid numbers for a guy whose price was so low just three months ago.  Indeed, ARod seems to have taken to the DH role and should be able to stay healthy not having to flash the leather.  Some may think they are selling high if they move ARod.  Find that seller and purchase a bargain for the remainder of 2015.”  As of Saturday, ARod had a week where he hit .280 with a .455 OBP, 5 RBI, 3 runs.  Fantasy Lesson:  Older players who still have a quick bat and keep themselves in shape and finally admit they are DH only rejuvenate.  ARod is certainly doing that.

J.A. Happ:  Last week we wrote: “J.A. Happ, long a CTW favorite, tossed 7 shutout innings Friday, giving up just six hits and one walk while mowing down 7.  For those who believed Happ would thrive in his first opportunity to call a pitcher’s park home, good for you as Happy is doing just that.  On the year, J.A. has a solid 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 49:14 K:BB rate through his first 11 starts.  The advanced metrics all look very similar to previous years.  I guess it is just better to pitch in Seattle and go on the road to Oakland then to pitch in Toronto or Philly.  I am buying.”  Sorry folks, got this one wrong so far.  I still believe but hey, no one is perfect.

Chris Tillman:  Last week we wrote:  “Chris Tillman was solid Friday, going 6+ innings and giving up just two runs.  Tillman’s roller coaster of a season just keeps chugging along, as it headed back uphill in Friday’s victory. Simply put, until Tillman’s WHIP reads something well short of 1.62 and his ERA gets well below its current 5.51 level, fantasy owners will doubt Tillman’s ability to return to form.  For me, that screams buy low opportunity.  For the last two years running, Tillman has tossed 200 innings and posted ERAs in the 3’s.   All of the advanced metrics say the ERA should come down.  The strand rate is low and BABIP high (both signs of bad luck).  Moreover, his velocity, GB rate and swinging strike rate have all increased.  This guy is not a roto star but he should be solid in the last 2/3 of the season.  He can probably be had for a song so start singing!”  Results since this missive:  5 2/3 innings, 5 hits, 5 runs, 2 BB, 2K but a win.  If I am being honest, I have to say this is a miss so far.  Fantasy Lesson:  No HR in June is the key to this turnaround.  Know your players – when Tillman keeps the ball in the park, he is a fantasy asset.  Let’s see if it continues.

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “Lets spend our little time together talking about one of the strangest things that is presently occurring in the major leagues. It is halfway through June and Luis Valbuena has already hit 13 home runs. This is bizarre enough that I actually had to research whether this was the same Luis Valbuena that had a relatively unmemorable stint as a utility infielder for the Indians a few years back. If the wonderful wealth of information on the Internet couldn't confirm my suspicion, his present batting average of .178 might have held up in a court of law as admissible evidence of identification. Like everyone on the Astros, Valbuena has been imbued with the ability to hit a prodigious number of home runs  without being able to do much else with a bat in his hand. Seriously - he has a total of 37 hits - which, for the mathematically inclined, means that more than 33% of his hits have cleared the fence. If you need me (or anyone else) to tell you that this is unsustainable and any reliance you are placing on Valbuena to lead you to roto-success in anything but the deepest of AL-only leagues, you probably should not be engaged in the fantasy sport of roto-baseball. 

Now, you may not be going too far to the left of the dial if you are counting on Dee Gordon to help you over the summer months. However, tread circumspectly. Last year at this time, Gordon was the darling sleeper of the roto-world, making everyone forget about Billy Hamilton by stealing 34 bases through May while spending most of the time before the All-Star break hitting above .300. However, once the weather heated up, Gordon cooled down and his production dwindled by about 50%. (Schultz Says is into ratios this week). Other than robustly disappointing numbers from his well-hyped prospect years, there's not a lot of historical data to gauge whether last year's swoon will follow Gordon to Florida. Someone is likely to overpay for Gordon if you dangle him out there to your league, if you can manage to get a more reliable option, you might sleep better over the summer months.”

Response:  Love the legal references and mathematical wizardry!