Trevor May’s coming out party highlights this Week’s Week That Was
Trevor May: Trevor May was great this week going 7 shutout innings while giving up just 2 hits and no walks. Oh and he struck out 9 on the night. The window is closing on the buy low opportunity but it still exists. May has a 4.45 ERA that will excite exactly no one. However, that number will come down as his strand rate and BABIP normalize. Indeed, it should come down to around where his 2.88 FIP currently sits. In his last two starts, May has a 2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14K/1BB in 13 innings. I do not know if he will be THAT good the rest of the way but given the above info, the almost 10% swinging strike rate, improved GB and first pitch strike rate and uptick in velocity, there is little reason to doubt May has arrived this spring.
J.A. Happ: J.A. Happ, long a CTW favorite, tossed 7 shutout innings Friday, giving up just six hits and one walk while mowing down 7. For those who believed Happ would thrive in his first opportunity to call a pitcher’s park home, good for you as Happy is doing just that. On the year, J.A. has a solid 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 49:14 K:BB rate through his first 11 starts. The advanced metrics all look very similar to previous years. I guess it is just better to pitch in Seattle and go on the road to Oakland then to pitch in Toronto or Philly. I am buying.
Kyle Gibson: Odd night for Kyle Gibson Friday. The bad news is that he gave up 5 ER in 7 innings. The good news is that he struck out 9 while walking none. Gibson has taken a lot of grief in fantasy circles for his low K numbers. Those 9K could quiet some of that chatter. However, it remains to be seen whether this big mow down day was an outlier or not. Other than the K rate, owners have to be happy with Kyle’s 3.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. So am I as high on Gibson as I am on May? Unclear. Yeah, I know that helps. On the downside is that the strand rate and BABIP say a correction is coming. However, Gibson’s 53%+ GB rate together with a strong jump in first pitch strike percentage say the solid performances will continue. In all, I like Kyle but until he K’s more guys consistently, I will take May over him. [Note, team CTW owns both in Tout Wars and feels pretty good about that back end of the rotation]
Mitch Moreland: Mitch Moreland had a nice night Friday going 2-3 with a dinger. At .300+ with 6 HR and 21 RBI in just 133 AB, Moreland is proving why he was a hot commodity before the injury bug kept biting. With the contact rate and walk rate up and the K rate down, Moreland looks to have improved upon his skills – skills were good enough to yielded 23 dingers just 2 short years ago. With the summer months coming to Texas where balls fly out of the yard more than many places, Moreland should produce a lot for fantasy owners whether in AL only or mixed leagues.
Chris Tillman: Chris Tillman was solid Friday, going 6+ innings and giving up just two runs. Tillman’s roller coaster of a season just keeps chugging along, as it headed back uphill in Friday’s victory. Simply put, until Tillman’s WHIP reads something well short of 1.62 and his ERA gets well below its current 5.51 level, fantasy owners will doubt Tillman’s ability to return to form. For me, that screams buy low opportunity. For the last two years running, Tillman has tossed 200 innings and posted ERAs in the 3’s. All of the advanced metrics say the ERA should come down. The strand rate is low and BABIP high (both signs of bad luck). Moreover, his velocity, GB rate and swinging strike rate have all increased. This guy is not a roto star but he should be solid in the last 2/3 of the season. He can probably be had for a song so start singing!
Williams Perez: Williams Perez had a clunker Friday giving up 4 runs, 5 hits and 5 BB in just 5 innings. I still believe. Why you ask? Good question. He throws a lot of groundballs. In fact with a 55% GB percentage and Andrelton Simmons and Jace Peterson to gobble most of them up, Perez should provide sneaky value in NL only deep leagues.
Alex Rodriguez: Let’s leave aside all the politics. I do not care if you like him or if you don’t but Alex Rodriguez has been a major bargain this year and is likely on a lot of first place teams (indeed, the one team on which I have ARod is leading the league). Thus far, the should be hall of famer (my view, let’s not get distracted) is hitting .283 with 11 HR, 28 RBI, 32 runs scored and an OPS over .900. Solid numbers for a guy whose price was so low just three months ago. Indeed, ARod seems to have taken to the DH role and should be able to stay healthy not having to flash the leather. Some may think they are selling high if they move ARod. Find that seller and purchase a bargain for the remainder of 2015.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “With the slow slide into the summer months that mark the true heart of the roto-baseball season, it may be time for some roto-owners to take the "don't" away from the Adamsian maxim that should guide all wise and prudent purveyors of our fine fantasy sport and begin to panic. With almost 1/3 of the season in the books, you likely have a good idea where your team may be headed. If you banked on Adam Wainwright and David Wright anchoring your team, you may be properly motivated to look ahead to 2016. If you've leaped into your league lead on the backs of Stephen Vogt and D.J. LeMahieu, perhaps you are living on borrowed time.
Long time readers of these weeks that were addendum know that Schultz abhors dumping. Too many owners gleefully abandon ship in the hopes of the elusive "next year" but do so out of the weakness of character that prevents them from admitting to and remedying the mistakes that have set them in this course. If you look around your league, these owners are likely the ones dumping year after year after year. If you feel you just have to look ahead, Schultz recommends looking south of the border to the recent influx of talent from Cuba. Look elsewhere for the sociopolitical ramifications of the United States' new relationship with Cuba. Keep in mind though that the Cubans know how to play baseball and can hit a ton. Yasmani Tomas, Jorge Soler, Alex Guerrero and Rusney Castillo are destined to be substantial contributors and are likely acquirable by trade in any keeper league. If you must circle the wagons and give up on 2015, roto-imports from Cuba make a fine investment.”
Response: Schultz on foreign policy. In a word – scary. However, I also abhor dumping and agree that if you must, there are some Cuban stars who are likely still undervalued in your fantasy league.