The Week That Was: “Prado Pinstripes and Pride”
Martin Prado looking good in pinstripes highlights this week’s Week That Was.
Martin Prado: Martin Prado returned to the Yankees lineup Saturday, laced three hits and scored twice. Since being installed as the Yankee 2B, Prado has been hot and become a key cog in the lineup. Indeed he hit 3rd Saturday during what for the Yankees is an epic offensive performance (6 runs). Prado is hitting .378 with an OPS over 1,000 over the last two weeks. He clearly likes playing in NY and it shows. For fantasy purposes, a multi-positional hot hitter in a hitters’ park who is eligible at the weak 2B position is fantasy gold. Dig in that mine if you are in a pennant race. [Note, I admit I am a Yankee fan and this sounds like I am being a homer but if you watch Prado play in pinstripes, you will see what I have seen].
Drew Smyly: Drew Smyly kept making the Rays smile Saturday giving up just one run on four hits while mowing down eight over six innings. Yes, David Price is great but Smyly has actually been better since the deal as his 1.63 ERA since August 5th shows. Can he keep it up? His K rate is down, his walk rate is up and his FIP says some correction coming. However, as the Baron of the Bottom of the Page writes below, he is hot now and if you are in a pennant race, who cares if he sees a 2015 correction? [footnote: there is some risk the Rays shut Smyly down so monitor reports carefully].
Chris Carter: Chris Carter just continues to rake. Friday, he went 2-4 with a dinger, 3 RBI and a run scored. Yes, his batting average is poor (.235) but 36 HR and 85 RBI are pure power. What is really impressive however is that Carter is getting better as the season progresses. Over the last 30 days, Carter has hit a solid .281 with a whopping 13 HR and 32 RBI. Ride him as far as he will take you this September. As to next year, what you see is what you get. Carter has not hit for average since his AA days in 2009. Add that to the decrease in his 2014 walk rate and increase in his 2014 K rate and to repeat, what you see is what you get – power with a weak average.
Devin Mesoraco: Devin Mesoraco went yard again Friday – the 22nd time he has left the yard this year. Not too shabby considering that those 22 taters have come in only 336 AB. Simply put, he is a good bet to produce at the weak C position in your pennant race and is a keeper league darling. He will be in his age 27 season in 2015 and will hit in a hitters’ park. Add in the facts that his K rate is down, his contact rate is up and he hit .289 or better in his final stops at AA and AAA and you have every reason to believe that Mesoraco will hit for average and power and thus should be kept for or targeted in 2015.
T.J. House: T.J. House delivered Friday, giving up just one earned run while striking out seven over seven innings. Carrasco and Salazar are more high profile, but recently House has been good too. Over the last month, House has a 3.65 ERA and a K rate close to 9. He does not throw as hard as Salazar or Carrasco so his margin of error is lower. Watch the matchups and if you like what you see, pitch him with confidence.
Donovan Solano: Donovan Solano continues to show the form for which the Marlins have been waiting. Friday, the second sacker went 4-5 with one RBI and three runs scored. In a word, he is HOT. Over the last week, Solano is hitting .429 with a ridiculous 1.020 OPS. Is he that good? Uh, no. Can he produce at the weak 2B position for September and beyond? As to September, ride him until he fails you. As to next year, he will be entering his age 27 season with between 800 and 1000 ABs under his belt – prime breakout territory. Add in the fact that he already hit .295 in half a season in the show back in 2012 and you have a good bet to keep up the production. Remember this name when you are struggling to find a 2B this year or next.
Hunter Pence: Last week in this space we wrote “Hunter Pence had a big night Friday going 3-4 with three RBI and a pair of runs scored. Yes, he would be the last player in the major leagues whose swing and approach would be used to train youngsters but the dude can hit and he is sharpening his arrows for the pennant race. Over the last two weeks, Pence is hitting .327 with 3 HR and 10 runs and RBI and over the last week, his average is a cool .417. This guy never gets enough respect so capitalize on that and grab him for your fantasy pennant race if you can. [Note, he is also consistent as his three year average coming into this season was .282 with 24 HR, 100 RBI and 11 SB].” So, what did he do this week? He hit .400 with a HR, 9 runs and 6 RBI to go along with his 1,000+ OPS. Hmmm.
And last and but not least, this from the Baron of the Bottom of the Page. Schultz says: “In roto-columns like the one right here, there's always a lot of talk of BABIPs and fielding neutral earned run averages and other indicators that are perceived to be guides to roto-baseball success. Whether are not you are a believer in predictive mathematics, those stats do give some empirical data on which to make any assumptions. However, we are at the time of year when you can toss those numbers out the window. The roto-baseball season is a marathon but every race ends with a sprint to the finish.
With the season winding down and championships being sought, it doesn't matter whether a certain hitter's batting average can be sustained or whether the league will get around to figuring out a pitcher's repertoire. Leave it to others to worry about that next year. What you want are players playing well now, regardless of whether it carries into next year or bears any relation to past performance. Just ride the wave to the end of the season.
Ignore Mike Fiers' historical numbers, he's pitching better than anyone else in Milwaukee's rotation. Jarred Cosart didn't have the greatest stats in Houston, he's flourishing in Florida. If the last 15 innings are any indication, Danny Salazar has reached the level people thought he would be at in April. Josh Harrison may never be this productive again, he doesn't seem like he's slowing down in September.
Don't worry about how it looks in "expertland," ride the hot hands to the finish.”
Response: Yep, what he said.
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