If you’ve seen the movie “Moneyball” you know that baseball analytics haven’t always been what they are today. Many managers and GM’s remained old school, relying on scouts and generic statistics well into the saber-metric era, thus inhibiting success as other teams embraced these metrics. Today it is everywhere, even television networks and scoreboards inside stadiums are posting statistics like FIP and BABIP. Baseball Twitter is flooded with these statistics and for good reason, they have proven to be excellent predictive numbers for future production. Knowledge is power.
Over the next couple of weeks we’ll take a look at a few advanced statistics and see which managers should be more proactive with them based on lack of usage from players who are excelling in said stats. First, we’ll start off with one of my personal favorites, wOBA. Weighted On-Base Average is a stat that accounts for every outcome of an at bat and determines how well a player contributes to run scoring. Here are a few managers missing the boat on players who are excelling in wOBA.
Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals
Jedd Gyorko is a player who had a lot of hype surrounding him in San Diego as a top prospect and it never really worked out. He showed signs of being really good but had a very up and down career as a Padre. Since becoming a Cardinal however, Gyorko has come into his own hitting 50 home runs combined in two seasons and increasing his walk rate to career highs in 2016 and again in 2017. Off to another hot start in 2018 begs the question to Mr. Mike Matheny, what are you doing sir?
Gyorko ranks second in all of baseball in wOBA with a .503 mark yet only has 42 plate appearances. In comparison, typical starting third baseman Matt Carpenter is sporting a .288 wOBA through 123 plate appearances and his numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons. As mentioned previously, wOBA takes into account every outcome of an at bat in relation to run scoring. It’s a full spectrum of what a hitter is accomplishing at the plate. Gyorko has four less hits than Carpenter as of today in 81 less at bats. Even with regression coming from Gyorko, he’s well above Carpenter at this point of their respective careers. It’s not even close Mike, make the move!
Brian Snitker, Atlanta Braves
Another Snitker sighting! A regular in the managerial tendencies series, Snitker has done many things very well en route to a 19-14 start good enough for first place in the National League East division. This is a bit of a stretch to say he is missing the boat here as it’s more of a good problem to have but they need to get Johan Camargo in the lineup. A bit of a utility player defensively, he can play second base, short stop and third base. Hot starts from Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson have left Camargo to fight for the third base role and have afforded him only 38 plate appearances thus far. Recent injuries to Swanson and Ryan Flaherty however have opened up two spots for Camargo until the signing and call up of veteran José Bautista .
These circumstances have given Camargo a shot to prove he is who he’s shown himself to be early on in 2018 and will be Swanson’s replacement until he returns from the disabled list on May 13th. His .390 wOBA this season is a little higher than his 2017 number of .330 but with his BABIP being an unlucky .238 and his improved approach evidence by his career high 18.4% walk rate, Camargo is showing sustainability. It’s unwise to think his .390 wOBA will hold up all season long, it’s just that his peripherals show it isn’t a fluke. Even if it falls to .350, Camargo and his solid walk rate would be in Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer of 2017 territory. Camargo also fits the bill of not having a ton of power, but a strong ability to get on base, as do Santana and Mauer. There is a bright future in Atlanta and while Johan Camargo isn’t likely to be a star, he’s showing the ability to be a very solid piece of the puzzle.
Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox
Ladies and gentleman, Mitch Moreland is absolutely raking! A .446 wOBA is an elite number, although likely pointing to regression since his previous career high in a full season was .348 with the Texas Rangers. Even with regression there are a couple things to consider. He’s in the best lineup that he’s ever been in, he’s getting better pitches to hit in this stacked lineup and he’s seeing the ball very well with an increased BB/K ratio well above his career numbers. Cora has to find a way to DH him more if he isn’t going to be overtaking Hanley Ramírez who is doing very well himself.
The move here would be to get J.D. Martínez in the outfield more and to start Jackie Bradley Jr. less. JBJ just isn’t very good and outside of his .267 average and 26 homer 2016 campaign, he’s been average at best. They don’t even really need his speed with Betts, Benintendi and Bogaerts in the lineup. If Boston wants to maximize the potential of this championship ready lineup, Mitch Moreland needs to be in the lineup more. His 81 plate appearances rank ninth on the team and his wOBA ranks second behind only Mookie Betts and fourth among all major leaguers with at least fifty at bats. Something’s gotta give!