The Chalk

Texas Heat

The Angels are visiting the Rangers tonight, and those two teams have the highest projected run totals per Vegas, primarily thanks to high 90-degree temperatures in Dallas. Right-handers Ariel Jurado and Taylor Cole will face off on the mound. Jurado has an ERA and xFIP over 5.00 in three starts this season, and Cole didn’t make it out of the second inning on Sunday, which was his first start of the season.

Los Angeles’ best active hitters against right-handed pitchers this season have easily been Shohei Otani and Justin Upton . Assuming Otani is in the lineup tonight, that pair should hit 2-3 in the order and would make for a good mini-stack. Leadoff hitter Kole Calhoun is also an option to include given that he almost has himself back to league average on the season against righties after a dreadful start.

For the Rangers, left-handers Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor lead the team in wRC+ vs. RHP this season. Those two have been hitting 1-2 in the order recently, so they make for a good mini-stack or base of a larger Texas stack. Joey Gallo is always fun to include in a stack given the upside that comes with his team-leading .254 ISO vs. RHP, and lefty Ronald Guzman has been Gallo-esque lately with four home runs in the last seven days. Right-hander Elvis Andrus is above average without the platoon advantage and could be used to bridge the gap between the top of the order and Gallo/Guzman if you’re going with a full Rangers stack.

Not the Chalk

While it is tempting to go with a Pirates team that has the fifth lowest projected run total of the night against a struggling Jon Lester , ultimately weather has us leaning towards the Nats as opposed to the Bucs. There’s going to be a light rain falling possibly throughout the entirety of the game in Pittsburgh, which is a pitcher-friendly park to begin with. But in St. Louis, the Nats will get warm, humid air with the wind blowing out a bit, which is good for hitting.

The Nats will face Luke Weaver who has had trouble missing bats recently as well as trouble limiting hard contact. His strikeout rate in his last four starts is well below average at 17.2 percent, and his soft contact rate generated is second lowest among any of tonight’s probables who have made at least two starts in the last 30 days.

Lefties are preferable against Weaver as he has moderate splits, and the Nats have five lefties in the order tonight. Their three best lefties against righties in the lineup tonight are Bryce Harper , Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy who will hit 3-5-7 in the order. Sandwiched between them are right-handers Anthony Rendón and Ryan Zimmerman . Zimmerman has struggled without the platoon advantage this season, but Rendon has a healthy 119 wRC+ vs. RHP, so he’s the guy to use to string together a stack with the lefties.