The Chalk
New York Yankees
The Yankees easily have the highest projected run total tonight at almost six runs. They’ll host Baltimore with Yefry Ramírez on the mound for the O’s. Ramirez has a 3.79 ERA in his last four starts, but his 4.53 xFIP indicates he hasn’t been pitching quite that well, primarily because of a 10 percent walk rate in that stretch. Ramirez faced the Yanks earlier this month and only lasted four innings allowed four runs on nine hits and two walks.
The Yankees have eight active hitters who have been above average against right-handed pitching this season, but none of those eight has been more than 25 percent better than league average. That means virtually the entire Yankee lineup tonight will be in play, making it easy to string together a stack. Get some exposure to them in cash based on what the rest of your roster allows positionally and budget-wise.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D’Backs have the third highest projected total per Vegas tonight and are one of four teams with a projected total over four runs. They’ll host the Rangers tonight with Bartolo Colón on the mound for Texas. Bartolo is struggling mightily of late with an ERA and xFIP over 5.00 in his last four starts. Whatever magic he had going at the beginning of the season is completely gone.
The D’Backs have five hitters who have been more than 25 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching this season, which is five more than the current Yankees roster can claim. Those five are (in order of wRC+ vs. RHP) David Peralta , Eduardo Escobar , A.J. Pollock , Daniel Descalso , and Paul Goldschmidt . The last time Arizona faced a right-handed starter, those five hit between two and seven in the order.
Not the Chalk
Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s a bit strange that nine teams have a higher projected run total than the Dodgers tonight. They’re at home hosting Milwaukee with left-hander Wade Miley on the hill for the Brewers. Miley ranks dead last in xFIP among tonight’s probable starters over the last 30 days, and his 2.25 ERA in that stretch is a complete fluke as he has walked more batters than he has struck out. Miley is ripe for some regression.
The Dodgers have three hitters who have been well above average against left-handed pitching this season, Manny Machado , Matt Kemp and Max Muncy . Assuming they’re all in the lineup tonight, they should be close enough in the batting order to form a stack or at least the base of a stack. Chris Taylor is also an option to include as he has a 110 wRC+ and .203 ISO vs. RHP this season. Yasmani Grandal is also worth considering given that he’s arguably been the team’s best hitter in the last 15 days hitting .323 with four home runs in that stretch.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are oddly one of the teams with a higher projected run total than the Dodgers, though only slightly. Despite having the higher projected total, the Sox figure to have the lower ownership rates. Chicago will host Kansas City tonight with left-handed Danny Duffy going for the Royals. Duffy affords opponents some home run potential as he leans toward the fly ball end of the spectrum with a 0.81 GB/FB ratio. He also has a HR/FB rate that’s a bit higher than average, and his soft contact rate is below average at 16.1 percent.
The White Sox have three hitters who have been well above average against left-handed pitching this season (min. 50 PA): Leury García , Matt Davidson and José Abreu . If you go back to last season, Avisail García has been their best hitter against lefties with a 168 wRC+ since then. The last time the Sox faced a left-handed starter those four hit 2-5 in the order, making a Sox stack easy to pick today.