Below are stacks to consider for Thursday’s MLB DFS action.
The Chalk
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are the clear chalk this evening as their 5.3 projected run total is about three-quarters of a run higher than the team with the next highest projected total. The Cubs are -160 favorites in Cincinnati against Matt Harvey and the Reds. Harvey has been terrible this season striking out only 17.8 percent of batters faced with a soft contact rate generated of only 14.2 percent.
The Cubs rank eighth in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and 10 of their hitters have a wRC+ that is above average against righties. Kyle Schwarber , Ben Zobrist and Javier Báez have been their best hitters against righties, with Schwarber and Baez doing their damage with pop and Zobrist doing his by getting on base at a .401 clip.
Studs Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are also obviously in play, and Jason Heyward is also worth a look given that he regularly hits second against righties. But again, there are 10 Chicago hitters who have been better than average against righties this season, so you can really go in all kinds of directions with a Cubs stack. Because they’re so chalky they’re really only a great cash option, so just be sure to have plenty of exposure to them in cash.
It should be noted that the weather in Cincy looks to be the diciest of the night, so you’ll have to check the weather closer to lock. If there’s any real risk of a postponement, the Cubs become more dangerous in cash lineups, but it could add to their GPP appeal if the game could get rained out and you want to gamble.
Milwaukee Brewers
If it does in fact wash out in Cincy, the chalk would likely shift to the Brewers who have the second highest projected total of the evening. They’ll host the Cards who will send Carlos Martínez to the mound. Martinez has an unsightly 26.5 percent walk rate in his last three starts, and his 6.25 xFIP in that stretch is easily the worst among tonight’s probables over the last 30 days.
Milwaukee has four hitters who have been at least 35 percent better than average against righties this season: Travis Shaw , Jesus Aguilar , Eric Thames and Christian Yelich . Aguilar and Yelich have been hot of late, as has Lorenzo Cain who has arguably been their best hitter in the last two weeks. Those five guys hit 1-5 in the order last night, so stacking Brewers should be easy.
Not the Chalk
Cincinnati Reds
The rain in Cincy tonight is actually a plus for a Reds stack as their slightly lower projected run total makes them more of a GPP option, and any serious rain threat should push their ownership levels lower. They’ll face Kyle Hendricks who has struggled over the last 30 days with an unusually high 10.3 percent walk rate that has his xFIP at 4.93 over that stretch.
The Reds offense is running hot right now as they trail only the Astros and Dodgers in wRC+ over the last 30 days. They have four lefties they can throw at Hendricks who have all been above average with the platoon advantage this season: Joey Votto , Scooter Gennett , Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker . Votto and Gennett have been particularly good with wRC+ marks of 168 and 138 vs. LHP. There’s also right-hander Eugenio Suárez who has a healthy 140 wRC+ against same-handed pitching this season. The last three times Winker has been in the lineup against a right-handed starter, those five guys have hit in the top six of the order, so it should be easy to string them together in a stack.