Below are breakdowns for each of the games on Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate along with optimal lineups.
FLA @ TOR
Both the Panthers and Leafs are a bit spotty defensively as they’re both below average for the season (on a weighted basis) in expected goals against (xGA). Thankfully, both teams have well above average goaltending to make up for their defensive weakness. Toronto is a bit weaker defensively, but they have the fifth best team save percentage in the league while the Panthers rank 11th in the same stat.
If you can do the mental math here, Toronto’s defensive weakness is a plus for their goalies from a fantasy perspective because the Leafs give their goalies plenty of chances to get +0.2 points for a save (on DK, anyway). Florida is one of three teams playing tonight in a virtual tie for shot attempts per game at even strength, so Frederik Andersen has as much upside as any goalie tonight, making him a solid GPP option.
As discussed with Jonhenry Holt on the Fantasy Alarm NHL DFS podcast earlier this week, it’s usually a good idea to stack your goalie with some skaters from the same team in GPPs. For that reason, Leafs are also worth a look in GPPs. The best individual matchup Florida presents for opposing skaters is Vincent Trocheck’s second line. Auston Matthews’ line almost always gets opposing second lines in home games, so that’s the Leafs line to target. William Nylander joins Matthews at even and on the PP, and Zach Hyman rounds out the line. Defenseman Jake Gardiner plays primarily with the Matthews line at even and joins Matthews/Nylander on the PP.
As for the Panthers, they’re not our favorite play tonight since we’ll be on Andersen to some degree, but it cannot be denied that collectively they’re priced very well on FD (as usual). Evgenii Dadonov continues to be criminally underpriced on FD. He is one of four forwards in action tonight averaging more than two primary points per 60 at even strength this season yet there are 19 forwards more expensive than Dadonov on FD. You could certainly stack him with center Aleksander Barkov and D-man Keith Yandle as Dadonov plays with both at even strength and on the PP.
NYR @ WSH
This game is very simple to breakdown. Skaters from both teams are squarely in play and the goalies are not options. These two teams are the only teams with plus fantasy matchups relative to league average tonight, so you want exposure to both teams.
Washington will be heavily owned as a -260 home favorite, so they’re the obvious cash game play here. Alex Ovechkin will see heavy ownership, so it’s hard to leave him out of your cash lineups. That said, we also like the second line, so we’d get some exposure to that line as well, and that line could be considered in GPPs given that their ownership percentages won’t be quite as high as Ovi’s.
New York’s top line is a half decent possession line, which can’t be said for the rest of the team, and it’s Ovi’s line, centered by Evgeny Kuznetsov that should draw that matchup. For that reason, the line of Nicklas Backstrom, Andre Burakovsky and T.J. Oshie should get excellent matchups. Backstrom and Oshie will be on the top PP unit with Ovi while Burakovsky plays on the second unit. That Backstrom line is priced very well on FD, though they’re priced entirely reasonably on DK. D-man John Carlson is also obviously an option as he runs the point on the top PP unit. Carlson is, as always, priced much better on FD.
As mentioned, the Rangers are also a good option tonight, and they’ll make for a nice, contrarian GPP option as a heavy road underdog. The Kuznetsov line is the better matchup for opposing skaters, so you’ll want to go with New York’s top line who should draw that matchup. Mika Zibanejad centers the top line and is joined by Chris Kreider both at even strength and the PP. Jesper Fast rounds out the line at even strength, but Fast does not see PP work. Ziba and Kreider are the rare players who are priced better on DK than FD, so they’re a strong GPP option on DK. Fast could be added to that stack, but he’s not as cheap as he should be.
Rookie defenseman Neal Pionk plays primarily with Zibanejad’s line at even, and he joins Ziba/Kreider on the PP. Pionk is playing 23-plus minutes per game in his last nine games, and he has 10 points in his last eight. He’s an excellent option to add to the Ziba/Kreider stack.
ARI @ VGK
The Golden Knights join the Caps as a -260 home favorite tonight, but Vegas isn’t nearly as good of an option as the Caps are. Vegas will face Arizona who is middle-of-the-pack defensively while the Rangers are arguably the worst defensive team in the league. Arizona also has good goaltending with Antti Raanta ranking sixth among 69 qualifying goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) while the Rangers are about league average in team save percentage.
You still have to have some exposure to Vegas in cash games just because they’re a huge favorite, but it’s not nearly as important as it is to have healthy Washington exposure. The best bet is probably just to pay up for leading scorer Jonathan Marchessault, though his center, William Karlsson, gets you some exposure at a slightly lower price. There are also a few value options you could sprinkle in like third liner Alex Tuch who plays on the top PP unit and is priced very well on FD. Defenseman Shea Theodore is also priced well on FD and plays on that top PP unit. D-man Brad Hunt is priced well on both sites and plays on the second PP unit.
In net, Marc-Andre Fleury is an obvious cash game option with Vegas being one of two huge home favorites tonight. It’s ludicrous that fellow heavily favored goaltender Braden Holtby is more expensive than MAF on FD and within $100 of MAF on DK. Fleury ranks second in GSAA this season while Holtby ranks an abysmal 58th. There’s no logical reason to roster Holtby rather than MAF in cash games.
Literally the only play from Arizona we can recommend in good conscience is Raanta in net as a pure contrarian option in GPPs. Raanta is having an excellent season, as mentioned, and there’s upside in the matchup as Vegas is one of the three teams playing tonight that’s essentially tied for most shot attempts per 60 at even. Arizona gives up a healthy 60-plus shot attempts at even on average, so Raanta could post a big number if he’s on his game tonight. If you do go with Raanta in net and want to stack him with skaters, go with the top line pair of Derek Stepan and Clayton Keller, who stay together on the PP. They’re joined on the PP by D-man Oliver Ekman-Larsson who is priced well on DK.
PHI @ COL
Philly is in a tough spot tonight playing in the altitude in Colorado after playing last night in Dallas. That’s an extremely tough back-to-back. For that reason, Flyers would be difficult to trust tonight. All that said, you’d think the Avs would be a solid play, especially as a -145 home favorite, but the Avs are tough to find a spot for tonight.
With Vegas and Washington being huge favorites to which you must get some exposure (and likely expensive exposure), and with the Rangers being a team we also recommend getting exposure to, there’s not a ton of room left for Avs. There’s also the problem of Philly being a tough matchup as they have the seventh lowest xGA on the season (weighted).
No one could fault you for going with Colorado’s top line who has been spectacular recently, so go for it if you’re inclined to do so. But if we’re going to use Avs, the second line might be the better option. The second line centered by JT Compher generally sees opposing depth lines in home games, and Philly isn’t a team with strong checking lines in the bottom six. Compher is joined by Tyson Jost, who has the added advantage of playing up on the top PP unit with the top line.
If you’re looking for a cheaper alternative to MAF as a cash game goalie, both Semyon Varlamov and Toronto’s Andersen are options. As mentioned, Andersen has upside in his matchup and is a home favorite just like Varlamov, so Andersen would be the preferred cheaper cash game play. But Varlamov is a bit cheaper than Andersen on both sites, so if you need the few extra hundred in savings, Varlamov is in play. (UPDATE: Varlamov is ill and missed morning skate. He may still play tonight, but even if he does, he's much riskier than originally expected.)