Below are game breakdowns and optimal lineups for tonight’s three-game NHL DFS slate. As a reminder, we suggest playing a smaller percentage of your bankroll on short slates, and it’s not a bad idea to lean a bit more heavily on GPPs than you normally would.
VAN @ PHI
This is by far the least fantasy-friendly game of the night. Both teams attempt shots at a below average rate and allow shot attempts at a lower-than-average rate, so, on paper, this should be the lowest shot volume game on this slate. And when pucks do get put on net, they’ll be directed at two goalies who have been above average this season per Corsica’s adjusted save percentage. Only three of the six probable goalies tonight have been above average this season.
Philly is the big home favorite in this one at -170, so they’d be the team to which you were more inclined to get exposure. Their most reliable options are Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek who skate together on the top line and top PP unit. Neither is priced all that well, but Couturier is closer to reasonably priced on FD and Voracek is closer on DK. Were you to stack them, you could add Shayne Gostisbehere who joins them on the top PP unit. If you needed a value option, D-man Ivan Provorov from the second PP unit is priced well on DK.
The only option from VAN would be the first line/first PP unit combo of Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser. Both guys have points in three straight games. Of the two, Boeser is the better value and would make for the better one-off play. If you stack them, Alexander Edler could be included on the stack as he joins them on the top PP. Edler is priced much better on DK.
Due to the low expected shot volume in this game, neither goalie is that attractive of an option. However, Michal Neuvirth, who is likely to start for Philly, is a cash option by way of Philly being a big home favorite. He’s not an option on DK where he’s the most expensive goalie, but he is an option on FD where he’s the cheapest of the three home favorite goalies.
EDM @ STL
This is a much more fantasy-friendly game, especially for St. Louis. The Blues rank fourth in goals scored this season, and the Oilers have the tenth most goals allowed. Edmonton’s top six lines have two of the three highest expected goals allowed averages of all lines in play tonight.
St. Louis’ top line has been far and away their most productive line this season, and they’ll likely match up with Edmonton’s second line, which is truly one of the best individual matchups of the night.
Stud Vladimir Tarasenko is absolutely worth paying up for in cash. He’s averaging over four shots on goal per game and is fourth in the league in shots on goal. He has five or more SOG in seven of his last eight. His linemate Brayden Schenn has been out of his mind lately with points in seven straight games and a total of 15 points in that stretch. That’s an expensive mini-stack, but one worth paying for in cash if you can. Their other line mate, Jaden Schwartz, joins them on the top PP unit and is priced a bit more reasonably. Alex Pietrangelo joins them on the top PP unit and is a better play on DK.
As for the Oil, you can completely ignore them on DK where no one on the team is priced well, but you could consider their second line on FD as a contrarian play so long as Leon Draisaitl stays on the second line tonight. Second line center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and winger Milan Lucic are priced reasonably, and Lucic and Draisaitl play up on the top PP unit, which gives them a little exposure to Connor McDavid. If you were looking for salary relief, you could consider Drake Caggiula on FD so long as he stays on the top line with McDavid.
In net, Jake Allen is one of the more appealing options of the night. For starters, the Blues are a -145 home favorite, and they have the highest win probability according to Corsica.com/predictions. That gives him cash appeal. But he also has GPP appeal due to the Oil being an excellent matchup for opposing goalies. Edmonton ranks fourth in shots on goal but next to last in shooting percentage, which makes for an excellent matchup for goalies: lots of shots, not a lot of goals.
MON @ DAL
There was no line in Vegas on this game as of this writing, but Dallas is expected to be the favorite at home. Corsica win probabilities have Dallas as a safe favorite. You could also see the over/under on this game being higher than the normal 5.5 goals. Montreal has allowed the third most goals this season, and Dallas has allowed a slightly higher-than-average number of goals.
The Stars have jumbled their lines of late and split up Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, and it’s Benn who has the more favorable line mates at the moment. He has also been Dallas’ most productive player recently with points in five of his last six including two multi-point games. He’s priced more affordably on DK. Alexander Radulov would be the obvious option to stack with Benn, but given Radulov’s salaries, Benn’s other line mate, Antoine Roussel, might be a more reasonable mini-stack partner. That said, Tyler Seguin's line saw opposing depth lines in their most recent home game while Benn's line got the opposing top line, so it's difficult to choose between the two.
Value options from Dallas are Jason Spezza on DK and Devin Shore on FD. Spezza has started to get his head above water of late with three points in his last five. He’s unquestionably struggling this season, but he’s so cheap on DK that he’s worth a look. Shore is skating with Seguin at even and on the top PP unit, which makes him a nice salary relief option at his price point on FD.
As for the Habs, their third line could be an interesting contrarian stack option. Charles Hudon, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher all have an above average ixGF/60 (individual expected goals for per 60), and the entire line stays together on the second PP unit. They all also happen to be priced very well on both sites but especially on DK. D-man Jeff Petry joins them on the second PP unit and is also cheap on both sites.
Max Pacioretty leads the team in ixGF/60, but with other expensive options like Benn and St. Louis’ top line being such good expensive options, today might not be the day to spend on Patch.
In net, Ben Bishop is a decent cash option as a home favorite. Allen is preferable to Bishop given that he’s performed better this season, but Bishop is slightly cheaper on both sites, so if you need an extra hundred bucks or two you could move down to Bishop. Both teams are above average matchups for opposing goalies, so Bishop or Charlie Lindgren would work in a GPP. Lindgren would be a more contrarian option as a road underdog.