As you’re likely aware, the shift has become a hot topic in baseball recently. Teams have started shifting much more in recent seasons, and “much more” is actually a huge understatement. The first season for which Fangraphs has shift data is 2010 when teams combined to use the shift about 3,300 times. Last season teams combined to use the shift almost 35,000 times. We’re literally talking about a tenfold increase in shifts in a span of seven seasons.

Given that this is the Managerial Tendencies series, it’s worth pointing out that how much a team uses the shift may not be directly attributable to the manager. The front office tends to have a lot of influence on defensive alignment as well. But whether a team’s manager or its front office is driving its defensive strategy, the point is that someone not on the field of play is having an impact on what happens on the field of play. Analyzing those kinds of decisions is the entire point of this series.

That said, we can point to two teams with new managers this season who have seen a dramatic difference in their usage of the shift compared to last season. The White Sox used the shift 15th-most last season, but so far this season under Rick Renteria they rank fifth in shift usage. Going the other direction are the Rockies who used the shift eighth-most last season but rank 25th in shift usage so far this season under Bud Black.

In theory, using more shifts should result in teams turning a higher percentage of balls in play into outs and vice-versa. That bears out in the numbers for the White Sox who turned 74.8 percent of ground balls into outs last year with an improvement to 76.1 percent so far this season. However, the Rockies do not fit into the hypothesis as they’re also converting more ground balls into outs with a 75.1 percent conversion rate last year compared to 76.2 percent this season.

White Sox pitchers have benefited slightly from this extra shifting with a team BABIP allowed that is six points lower than it was last season even though the team is allowing hard contact on 2.4 percent more batted balls this season. Their 32.8 percent hard contact rate is 10th-worst in the league. Harder contact generally leads to more hits, so the improved defensive efficiency is helping mitigate a weakness of Chicago’s arms.

If there’s one Chicago pitcher that has potentially benefitted from the extra shifting, it’s Carlos Rodon. Rodon hasn’t made any obvious improvements to his game compared to last season, but his ERA is a bit better at 3.88 in 10 starts this season compared to 4.04 last season.

Rodon’s SIERA is a bit higher than last year and his xFIP is a bit lower, so his talent level is roughly the same. He’s striking out more batters this season, but he’s also walking more batters, so his skills in that regard are essentially a wash compared to last year. He’s also allowing more hard contact and giving up more ground balls and line drives, which go for hits more often than fly balls. Given that shift in his batted ball profile, you might expect his BABIP to be up this season. But his BABIP is down 26 points from last season, which must be due in some part to improved defensive efficiency behind him.

It should be noted that Rodon is literally the only White Sox starter with more than 20 innings pitched this season who has a xFIP under 5.50, so he’s the only guy we can examine to say if the change in Chicago’s shift strategy is having any measurable fantasy impact. But given that the only interpretation of Rodon’s numbers is that the shift is helping, even if only slightly, we have reason to give a little bump to any pitcher Chicago brings to town in the future if they’re coming from a team that doesn’t shift much.

As for the Rockies, two of their starters from last year, Chad Rusin and Chad Bettis are no longer in their rotation. And guys like Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and German Marquez weren’t in the rotation last year. That leaves us with Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Tyler Chatwood.

The Tylers don’t help in providing us a good case study on the effect of the team’s decrease in shifting because the Tylers are struggling to keep the ball in the yard this season. Both had HR/9 marks under 1.00 last season, but this year Chatwood has a HR/9 of 1.37 and Anderson’s is a whopping 2.17. Each guy is also walking about a batter more per nine innings this season, so it’s impossible to potentially attribute some portion of their struggles to the lack of shifting when they’re doing most of their damage to themselves.

The best example we have of the team’s decrease in shifting potentially having a fantasy impact is with Jon Gray.  Gray is the team’s best pitcher as the only starter this season with a sub-4.00 xFIP. His xFIP is almost exactly where it was last year, and his ERA isn’t too different either as it’s only 13 points higher than last season.

What is different is Gray’s BABIP which was .308 last season but currently sits at .357 this season. Part of the increase has to do with Gray’s batted ball profile as he’s inducing a lot more ground balls this season with a ground ball rate 7.6 percent higher than it was last season. A corresponding 5.2 percent drop in his fly ball rate has occurred as well. As mentioned, fly balls go for hits less often than ground balls, so the simple fact that Gray is allowing more ground balls partially explains the rise in BABIP. Tough luck has to be playing some part as well with a BABIP that high.

But we cannot say that the decrease in shifting is contributing to Gray’s increased BABIP simply because the Rox are converting balls into play at the same or higher rates on all batted ball types as they were last year. This one example does not prove that a decrease in shift usage will never hurt a pitcher’s numbers, but it does show it’s by no means a death sentence. What a pitcher does himself still largely controls his numbers, and Gray’s substantial change in batted ball profile is affecting his BABIP much more than the shift theoretically could.