As a prompt for this week’s Managerial Tendencies article, consider this tweet from an old colleague of mine, Seth Klein.
Randal Grichuk’s manager, Mike Matheny, is likely putting Grichuk in the lineup for one of two reasons or a combination of the two. First, Grichuk posted a 137 wRC+ in 2015 and was still at least slightly above average with a wRC+ of 102 last year. Matheny could well be leaning on Grichuk’s past production. It could also be a matter of defense as Grichuk has graded out above average defensively in his first three seasons. Whether it’s past production, defense or a mix of the two, Matheny is wrong to keep giving Grichuk more playing time than Jose Martinez.
As for the past production, Grichuk’s numbers from the last two seasons explain that his dip in production this season is not just a long slump or the result of bad fortune. Grichuk has always struck out about 30 percent of the time while walking at a pedestrian six percent clip for his career. A high BABIP drove his breakout 2015 season and without it he’s susceptible to very low batting averages and on-base percentages. As for his defense, he was playing a solid center field in years past, but now that he has moved to a corner outfield spot, his defense is significantly less valuable.
#FreeJoseMartinez
Let’s now turn to some other examples of managers making curious lineup decisions.
This has been mentioned here before this season, but Houston’s A.J. Hinch is too committed to Carlos Beltran. Beltran has a wRC+ of 88 this season yet he has nearly 200 more PA than Jake Marisnick who has a wRC+ of 124. Marisnick has played more recently with George Springer on the DL, but the Astros might want to consider keeping Marisnick in the lineup at Beltran’s expense when Springer returns. That’s primarily because Beltran is almost exclusively a DH now, while Marisnick is a well above average fielder. He has hit and flashed pop both for the season and recently, so fantasy owners would like to get his bat (and his legs) in the lineup more often.
#FreeJakeMarisnick
In Toronto, you could make the case that John Gibbons should be getting Ezequiel Carrera in the lineup more often. Carrera has a 121 wRC+ this season while fellow outfielders Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar have more than 200 PA more than Carrera but have wRC+ marks in the 80s. Pillar is in there every day because he plays an excellent center field, but Bautista getting significantly more work isn’t defensible on those grounds.
The biggest mistake is not getting Carrera more work against right-handed pitching. He has a 135 wRC+ vs. RHP this season, but Bautista has a 150 more PA against RHP and a wRC+ of only 99 against them. Or perhaps it’s DH Kendrys Morales who is stealing Carrera’s work. Morales has 123 more PA against RHP than Carrera and a wRC+ of only 88 against them. Maybe Bautista should move to DH while Morales moves to the bench to free up work for Carrera.
You’d think Gibbons might start to pick up on this the further we get into the season, but Carrera has just 39 PA since the Break while Bautista and Morales both have more than 100 PA. In those 39 PA, Carrera is 14-for-36 with seven extra-base hits and a wOBA of .489.
It’s difficult to understand why Gibbons is underutilizing Carrera. Most likely, he’s simply deferring to his veteran hitters on the roster because it’s not as if they provide any defensive value whatsoever. But as we’ve discussed in past articles, Gibbons isn’t the greatest manager.
Sometimes managerial incompetence works to the benefit of fantasy owners like when Gibbons stubbornly sticks to defined bullpen roles at the expense of using his best relievers in the toughest spots. For fantasy purposes, we like knowing Gibbons is going to use his closer to get saves rather than to get out of jams in innings prior to the ninth. That rigidity he displays in bullpen management could well be the same philosophy he applies to sticking with his veteran bats. But in this instance, Gibbons’ failure to get Carrera in the lineup more often is hurting fantasy owners.
#FreeEzequielCarrera