Aside from perhaps a manager’s rate of calls successfully challenged, there are no stats associated with managers that are independent of the players they manage. Who makes it into the lineup, how long a starting pitcher stays in the game, which relievers pitch in high leverage situations. These decisions managers make are dependent on what their players have done in the past and are expected to do in the future.

As a result, it is difficult to distill a manager’s impact on the game. Last week we focused on how long managers leave their starters in the game and noted that St. Louis starters have the fourth highest average number of pitches thrown per start and the best staff ERA in the league. That Cardinals pitchers are going deeper into games this season tells us much more about the quality of those pitchers than it does about manager Mike Matheny.

But as was discussed last week, we can more easily ascribe impact to a manager when his decisions do not align with what would be expected based on the performance of his personnel. As an example, it would tell us something about Matheny if his staff had the best ERA in the league but they were averaging a lower-than-average number of pitches thrown per start.

This week we’ll look for discrepancies between player performance and managerial decisions as it relates to steals. If you’re looking to add some speed on the waiver wire or via trade, it would be beneficial to know which managers are going to let their guys run even if they’re not stealing successfully at a high rate. On the flip side, it would be advantageous to know which managers are more conservative on the base paths even if they have players who rarely get caught stealing.

**Note: If you happen to play in a roto league that has replaced the steals category with net steals, then this article is not applicable to your league type. Similarly, the analysis within is not applicable to points leagues that have deductions for being caught stealing.

Clint Hurdle – Pittsburgh Pirates

Let’s start with the “fantasy friendly” managers that let their guys keep running even if they get caught a lot.

Hurdle’s Pirates have been abysmal when leaving early this season with a 53.2 percent success rate that is the second worst mark in the league. But despite all the outs they’re losing on the base paths, the Pirates rank seventh in stolen base attempts with 47. Last year they were more successful when stealing with the 13th highest success rate, but they still ran a bit more than would be considered optimal with that rate of success as they ranked eighth in stolen base attempts.

If you need steals and you’ve got the roster space to stash the suspended Starling Marte, he could easily get you 20 steals once his 80-game suspension is over. Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison can also reach double digit steal totals from here on out. Polanco is likely owned in all but very shallow leagues, but Harrison might still be available in something past 10-team leagues. And if either guy is owned in your league, they aren’t bad trade targets if steals are a need.

Craig Counsell – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers might well be the best team to target if you’re looking for speed. Milwaukee is slightly above average with the 13th highest success rate this season, but they run much more often than you might expect with the second most stolen base attempts so far. Last year they had the sixth best success rate, which is obviously good, but it wouldn’t lead you to expect that they had the highest number of stolen base attempts in the league and had 46 more attempts than the team with the second most.

If you’re desperate for speed and want to acquire a stud player, you wouldn’t be wrong to make a play for Jonathan Villar. If you’re looking to make a more moderate attempt to add steals and just add someone off the wire, Keon Broxton is a guy that will be available in some shallower leagues that could get you 15 steals or more the rest of the way. And in deeper leagues, guys like Hernan Perez and Orlando Arcia could steal 10 or more bases from here on out.

Don Mattingly – Miami Marlins

We’ve officially moved to the “fantasy unfriendly” portion of this article. Mattingly’s Marlins have the best success rate in the league so far at 84.4 percent, and yet they rank 22nd in stolen base attempts with 32. The Reds are the only team that is close to the Marlins in success rate with an 83.1 percent mark, and Cincy justifiably leads the league in stolen base attempts.

Miami’s conservativeness on the base paths was evident last year as well. The Marlins ranked 12th in success rate in 2016 but only 20th in stolen base attempts. The Dodgers were also conservative on the base paths in 2015 when Mattingly was there, but they also had a low success rate, which made the conservatism justified. But in Miami, Mattingly is making a mistake and, more importantly, costing us fantasy points by not being aggressive.

You might think this is a problem of Dee Gordon being the only one on the team who can steal bases and doing it at such a high level that it’s skewing the numbers. But when you remove Gordon from the equation, non-Gordon Marlins have a success rate of 76.9 percent, which would be the seventh best mark in the league.

Prior to Mattingly coming to town, Gordon averaged .54 stolen base attempts per game in 2015. But in the 132 games he has played in the last two seasons with Mattingly in the dugout, Gordon is only averaging .42 stolen base attempts per game. Christian Yelich’s number of stolen base attempts per game has almost been cut in half under Mattingly. In 2015 Yelich attempted .167 steals per game, but in the last two seasons he has attempted just .087 steals per game.

Mattingly is the most exaggerated example of a manager being more conservative than he needs to be based on his personnel, but there are other managers who have an established tendency to run less than they should.

Joe Girardi’s Yankees rank fifth in success rate this year, which is also where they finished in that statistic last season. Last year they ranked a puzzling 22nd in stolen base attempts, but they’ve thankfully been less conservative this season with the 12th most stolen base attempts.

John Gibbons is also more conservative than he needs to be with Blue Jays. Toronto ranks top 10 in success rate so far but has the sixth fewest stolen base attempts. Last year they were right around average in success rate but still had the sixth fewest stolen base attempts.