We have another game seven, as well as a game one to complete this NBA weekend. The projected game totals today are nothing to get really excited about, and today may be best to just watch the games, and focus on some NASCAR and MLB action. Having said that, it’s still the NBA, and the sites continue to have their largest gpp’s for NBA out of all the sports. Below are my game breakdown thoughts, and then some example lineup routes to consider.
Please feel free to use our chat to share your thoughts, and ask any questions. Example lineup routes will be posted later today. Good luck!
Indiana @ Cleveland -5 T: 199
I feel that this game seven is more key for the Cavs organization than the Pacers tonight. LeBron has yet to lose a first round series, and a loss today could mean seeing LeBron is a Lakers or Philly jersey next season. The Pacers ave looked liked the better team, both in winning three of four during the regular season, and in forcing a game seven after beating the Cavs 121-87 at home the other night.
LeBron James is the overall top priced option today, and is coming off his worst game of the series. Of course, he didn’t play in the fourth quarter last game, but he can’t be watching his teammates takes poor shots today while he’s on the court. I expect something similar to the game in which he scored the majority of the team’s first quarter points, and then drive and dunk or dish. Getting the Pacers into some earlier foul trouble may be key for them today. After LeBron, Kevin Love’s 11 points per game is not going to cut it as the Cavs second leading scorer in the playoffs. He’s 7-31 over his last three games, while going only 2-10 from three point land. Love is still the top priced PF on FD today, and once again that position makes for some salary relief plays. It will be difficult to figure out if any other Cavs outside of LeBron steps up today. Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith continue to have the potential for big games, but there are some solid SG options today. I like them both best on DK. Hood, Nance Jr, and Green are the other three targets if looking for some higher risk plays.
Victor Oladipo led the Pacers with a triple double good for 73 DK points in game six, which was more than double his previous two fantasy point games. He shot 11-19 in that game after going just 7-35 over the previous two. He is roughly the same price as Mitchell, and would like exposure to at least one of them, and suggest choosing them based off how you see the games taking place tonight. If the Cavs fully trap Oladipo again, Domantas Sabonis will have another strong game. He’s shot over 74% from the field over his last three games, producing at least 19 actual points in all three. The rest of the Pacers roster is loaded with $4-$6K type players, that all could make for solid plays depending on how much you think the Cavs can keep the ball away from Oladipo. While Thad, Turner, and Collison are solid options, I would rather stick with the Pacers bence in Lance Stephenson and Cory Joseph. Lance is a very active defender that will try to get in the Cav’s heads earlier today. He could also pick up some quick fouls if too aggressive. With Rubio out for the Jazz, their guards will be the popular value options, which makes Joseph the sneaky pivot option. He’s gone for over 20 DK points in back to back games now.
Utah @ Houston -11.5 Total: 207
We saw Golden State make a statement last night in their game one at home, and the Rockets are hoping to do the same in their series opener vs the Jazz. Houston swept the Jazz 4-0 during the regular season, winning by an average of 17.5 points.
James Harden had little issues racking up his stats vs the Jazz this year, as he averaged 34.3 points, 6.3 boards, 6.8 assists, and 2.3 steals over the four games. He didn’t really blast off vs the T-Wolves in the opening round, and feel that he works best as a pivot off of LeBron. Those two are the top two priced options today, with a roughly $2-3K price gap to the field after those two. On DK, Chris Paul is cheaper than the PG/SG options in Mitchell and Oladipo, but leads the PG field on FD, and priced $3.1K over the next best option. On FD, you have the option to plug and play Paul, or just go cheap with both spots. Unfortunately, I feel that you need to shell out the $8.7K for Paul on FD due to the lack of quality options. I would even make the case that Paul could outscore the rest of the FD point guard options combined today. Eric Gordon struggled early in the T-Wolves series, but started to hit his shot when the Rockets pulled away. He hit for his season high 33 actual points earlier this year vs the Jazz, and will continue to jack up his three pointers throughout this series. Clint Capela vs Goberty should be a fun matchup, but if the Rockets drive to the basket, expect plenty of dump offs to Capela for the dunk once Gobert tries to stop Harden and Paul from easy layups. Finally, if feeling the blowout, the Rockets have some plenty of role player options. If Luc Mbah a Moute returns today, and is without any minutes restriction, I prefer him on DK over Anderson, Green, and others.
While the Jazz ended the Thunder’s playoff run, they now have to face the top seeded Rockets without Ricky Rubio, at least for game one. The Jazz have been pretty quiet about their game planning for this series, and with it being the later of the two games, we may not have an idea of what they are thinking before lock time. Donovan Mitchell took at least 20 FGA in every game vs the Thunder, including going for over 30 actual in two games, and grabbing double digit boards in two as well. He averaged only a little over 16 points in the four regular season games vs the Rockets, but as mentioned above, the Rockets won all four by an average of over 17 points. Rudy Gobert had a double double in the last five games of the first round, and is your top priced DK center option. On FD though, he’s a solid $700 less than Capela if thinking he steps up big time today. I’m not big on Favors, but going with some cheap Jazz players may be your best route today. Jae Crowder works for cheap on FD paired up with Sabonis, while Royce O’Neale is your perfect pivot off of a Pacer or Joe Ingles on FD today as your #2 SF. O’Neale may receive the start today, while Ingles may join Mitchell in running the point for Utah. Ingles played 42 minutes in each of the last two games vs OKC. Finally, with Rubio out, one of their backup guards will have to receive some of his minutes. Alec Burks received that chance in game six. He barely played in this series until Rubio went down, and then played 17 minutes, and scored 11 actual. He’ll likely receive the first crack, as the Jazz will likely need some offense, while a Dante Exum may also receive a nice bump in minutes if this game really gets out of hand. I do like Burks for salary relief, but stuck in a tough SG spot on FD.