Houston @ Detroit

This game checks in as the highest projected run total game of the early slate, and features Collin McHugh making just his second start of the season, and Matt Boyd, who has a career 7.20 ERA vs the Astros.

McHugh did not get out of the fifth inning in his first start while allowing four earned runs, and two homers. He was sharp last year vs the Astros, but may need a few more innings under his belt before he regains his full strength. Castellanos and Cabrera are a combined 11-20 off McHugh, and both went deep to start this series last night. Overall, the Tigers are batting .369 in their last 65 AB’s ve McHugh.

Boyd was sent down in June after a poor early start, but has won both his starts since returning on July 18th. He still allowed three runs in each inning, and even a banged up Houston team can do some damage as we saw last night. Opponents are hitting .548 against Matthew Boyd on the first pitch of at-bats this season (Rank: 122nd of 123 qualified SPs in MLB) Astros hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position 28.2% this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB). while Boyd has walked 18.2% of batters with RISP this season (Rank: Tied for 158th of 161 qualified SPs in MLB). Altuve continues to be hot, and is 2-5 with a homer off Boyd.

Detroit: Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, Mikie Mahtook

Houston: Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Carlos Beltran

Baltimore

The Rangers will be a popular option again tonight as this game checks in with the highest projected total. I don’t mind a full game stack here, but will be more heavy on Baltimore tonight vs Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Austin has only pitched 3 ? innings in the second half, allowing eight hits, four runs, and walking three. Before then, he gave up six homers over his previous three starts. Austin is pretty much filling in for a spot start today on a 90 plus degree Texas evening. The O’s are 6-13 with a homer and two walks off of Bibens-Dirkx. As a starter, Austin Bibens-Dirkx has allowed an OPS of 1.312 (16 PAs) on pitches in the strike zone over the last 30 days (Rank: 161st of 164 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .843).

The Orioles have hit at least one home run in each of their last 11 games (this is the longest active streak). Although their price tags have increased for this matchup, they are the top projected scoring team tonight, and believe they get one back from Texas tonight.

Top Suggested Stack: Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Seth Smith

Pairing option: Instead of fully stacking this game, I would go back to either the Cubs or the Marlins tonight. Both will be lesser owned compared to this game, and more than likely the Indians tonight.