Although not listed below, the Pirates @ Rockies game is in play, and will be a popular game to target tonight.  Also, there are a few games with weather concerns tonight, so please make sure to monitor the games up until lineups lock.  Good luck!

 

Marlins @Reds

This game was on my radar for a full game stack last night, and disappointed with only a 3-1 final score.  There is no reason not to go back to this matchup again tonight with O’Grady vs Stephenson on a 90 degree Saturday night.  Both these teams have projected run totals in the top ten tonight, and their game total is second to only the Coors game tonight.

Stephenson is making his first start of the season after sporting a 8.03 ERA as a relief pitcher to start the season.  He was sent down in late May, and has shown control lately in the minors, but his 1.99 WHIP in the majors, and facing a powerful Marlins squad equals trouble for him. Stanton has hit nine homers over his last 11 games, and slugging .935 versus RHP over the last 30 days (Rank: 1st of 180 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .424). Overall, the Marlins hitters have an OBP of .337 on the road this season (Rank: 3rd of 30 in MLB).

O’Grady will be making his third start for the Reds tonight, and is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA though 10 ? innings.  There’s not much to go on about O’Grady, as he hasn’t been rocked yet, but also hasn’t shown the greatest control, throwing only 48 of 81 pitches for strikes in his first game.  While the Reds have drawn only 67 walks in 956 PAs (7.0%) versus LHP this season (Rank: 28th of 30 in MLB), we can still target their power left-handed bats as they  are slugging .512 in lefty-lefty matchups this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .384).  While I do prefer Bour adn Gordon in this stack, Votto and Gennett make for nice pivot options as well.

 

Marlins:  Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna

Reds:  Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall, Tucker Barnhart or Devin Mesoraco

 

 

Royals

The Royals had their third walk off victory of the week last night, and the temps may be sitting at triple digits for the first pitch tonight at Kauffman. They are facing Mike Pelfrey tonight, who comes in with a 1-5 record, and 6.33 career era in 11 appearances (10 starts) vs the Royals.  Vegas like the Royals tonight as well, as they are projected to score over six runs tonight.  They have some great BvP numbers as well, with Cain and Hosmer hitting a combined 17-33 off him.  Escobar and Gordon are both .350 or over off Pelfrey, and Mous is 7-17 with two homers.  There is also Moss and Whit, who are both great options for tonight if starting.

Pelfrey has allowed six homers and 13 runs over his last four starts.  That doesn’t include the three runs in ? inning vs the Rockies either.  Opponents have a miss rate of just 11.3% (27/239) against Mike Pelfrey as a starter with two strikes this season (Rank: 164th of 166 qualified SPs in MLB), and on the flip side we have the Royals, who have a swing rate of 52.0% versus RHP this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB).

Pairing Options: I like the idea of keeping it in the A.L. Central, and that includes sticking with this game, and the White Sox.  Vargas is 12-3 this year, but is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA in July.  He’s also as bad as Pelfrey with  career numbers for this matchup.  Vargas is 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) vs the Sox.  Moncada had a bases clearing triple last night, and is still cheap across the board.  The Tigers would be by other central team to pair up with KC.  Kyle Gibson has an ERA of 7.25 (44.2 IP)  at home this season (Rank: 126th of 129 qualified SPs in MLB), and you already have Hosmer so no need to worry about Miggy being questionable for tonight. 

Will most likely stay away from 4x4 here, and stick with the Royals paired with other divison players.

Royals:  Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar or Brandon Moss depending on stack structure.

Secondary option:  Alex Avila, Brian Dozier or Ian Kinsler, Tim Anderson, Zack Granite or Jim Adduci