Nationals

The Nationals face the rookie Luis Castillo tonight for the second time this season.  He made his debut vs the Nationals back on June 23rd, walking five batters while allowing two long balls. 

He has pitched better since then, and has the K upside, but the Nats have the power, and batting eye for Castillo’s fastball tonight.  Nationals hitters have chased just 22.8% of pitches out of the zone (382/1,675) on pitches 94 mph or greater this season (Rank: 5th of 30 in MLB).  The Nationals also are batting .270 (142-for-526) on high fastballs this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .225)

Both Goodwin and Rendon took Castillo deep in that June matchup in Washington, and Vegas has them as one of the handful of team projected to score over five runs tonight.  Harper was a popular play last night with a double HR game, and may be pitched to again tonight if the Castillo has control issues.  Zimmerman disappointed last night, and Murphy was held out, but both are in play again if starting.  If looking for salary relief, Drew or Difo should supply that again.

Nationals:  Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, Stephen Drew (Difo if Drew is out), Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

 

Cubs

The Cubs offense started the second half on a tear with a homer run parade off Gausman, and face Miley tonight, who is next to Gausman as having the worst WHIP in the league at 1.75. Miley has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50.4% (136/270) of opposing right-handed batters this season (Rank: 165th of 167 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63.3%). We more than likely won’t have a Schwarber sighting today, as left-handed batters are hitting .184 against Wade Miley (9-for-49)  this season (Rank: 9th of 159 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264). If they start a lefty, Jay is 5-7 off him. Zobrist will bat righty, but is 1-13 lifetime vs Miley. He had a great game last night, and don’t mind using him at a cheap price leading off again. The Cubs also have some affordable salaries tonight if paying up for pitching.

If off of Cubs pitching as well, feel free to full stack this game with Arrieta’s former teammates in the O’s. This game does highest the highest projected total of the night.

Cubs:  Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant

 

Angels

The Angels make for a higher risk stack that provides a late night hammer option outside of the Indians.  They face Alex Cobb tonight for the Rays, and can make the case in the opposite direction to take Cobb, but if looking to find tonight’s version of the Met’s from last night, I like the Angels. 

Opponents have a groundball rate of 78.8% (41/52) against Alex Cobb on low curves and sliders this season (Rank: 1st of 101 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 52.9%). Even though Angels hitters have put 38.5% of their swings in play (495/1,285) on curves and sliders against RHP this season (Rank: 2nd of 30 in MLB), they have a Well-Hit Avg of just .102 (71/695) on curves and sliders against RHP this season (Rank: 30th of 30 in MLB).

If Cobb has control problems with his off-speed stuff, opponents have a miss rate of just 8.7% (34/389) against Cobb on fastballs this season (Rank: 166th of 170 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16.3%). The good thing about stacking is that sometimes you don’t need everyone on a team to produce, just your four players, with the other ones reaching base other ways hopefully.  The good news is that Pujols and Trout have fared very well vs Cobb. Coming off a long ball last night, Albert is 6-9 with 1 homer, and looking to make season long owners happy again, Trout is 5-9 with two homers off Cobb. You can pair up with Maybin and Calhoun at the top, or an Escobar, Valbuena, Maldonado after them. 

Top Stack Suggestions:  Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Cameron Maybin, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Stack:  Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Luis Valbuena