Yonder Alonso Is Not Who You Thought He Was

We’ve had a number of breakout stories and feel-good moments during this 2017 MLB season that have had fantasy baseball owners on their feet. Aaron Judge had a first-half for the ages, Jonathan Schoop brought big-game power back to the middle infield and young arms like Aaron Nola, James Paxton and Luis Severino are dominating the pitching leaderboards. But as we head further into August and become distracted by the inundation of fantasy football prep, there still some “big names” being lauded for their work in April and May who may be undeserving of your continued attention. We look at the overall numbers, cite the breakout, but fail to recognize the lack of consistency, simply because we are too distracted by the name, the hype and the time of year to notice they’ve recently become more of a liability than anything else. A deeper look into the emergence of Yonder Alonso epitomizes this very notion.

A casual glance at the overall numbers tells you Yonder Alonso, recently acquired by the Mariners over the weekend (a lateral move in fantasy value, for the record), is having a career-year. His .266 average may not be anything special, but his current total of 22 home runs is just three dingers shy of his cumulative homer total for the last four years combined. He’s also tied his career best in runs scored and is just six RBI from doing the same in that category. Reports of his changes in his swing and trendy buzz-words like “launch angle” have brought major attention to his performance and while home runs are a-plenty this season, we seem to be stuck on believing him to be something he is not.

So let’s take a moment to remind you that winning a fantasy baseball championship takes more than just looking at surface numbers. It’s also about understanding the trends, catching a player when he is hot and knowing exactly when to let go. Those still clinging to Alonso like he’s going to lead them to the Promised Land are not paying attention and are likely going to be sitting there in third place at the end of the season, wondering why they couldn’t make that final push to the top.

The easiest way to help you see the light is a look at Alonso’s monthly splits this season:

You see what I’m saying here? You do, don’t you? Suddenly all you Alonso owners are starting to cringe. He had an average first month of the season and then busted out big-time in May, much to the delight of waiver-hounds in need of some corner infield help in the wake of all those early-season injuries. But since the calendar flipped to June, there’s been nothing more than below-average numbers hiding behind one good month. His power numbers came crashing back to Earth, his strikeout rate spiked and his declining OPS has put to rest all those cries of “Launch Angle Alert” (credit my BFFs from RotoBaller, RealTalk Raph and Josh Hayes for that battle-cry).

Alonso has gone from early-season stardom and DFS champion to nothing more than waiver wire fodder here in the second half. It’s come to the point where he may not even be worthy of a roster spot in a 12-team mixed league. You certainly can’t rely on him to be your starting first baseman and with names like Matt Chapman, Yulieski Gurriel and Trey Mancini actually producing, you probably have a variety of corner guys from which to choose.

Maybe it’s because we’re seeing a number of other once highly-touted prospects who have begun to bloom late in their careers. Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison and Mike Moustakas have all finally breached the 30-homer plateau, Andrelton Simmons has seemingly revived his career and pitchers like Gio Gonzalez, Jason Vargas and Ervin Santana have become more than just relevant names to stream into your rotation. The list of ho-hum also-rans has now become a list of value-picks and fantasy saviors.

Make sure when you’re evaluating your team and making roster adjustments that you actually take a more in-depth look at your players. Surface numbers are great, but they rarely tell the actual story of what’s happening in the here and now. You have a world of data at your disposal and it’s the owner who takes the extra time to notice these things who consistently wins. I get it…you’ve got a lot on your plate right now what with two months of baseball still to go, fantasy football kicking in and your summer rapidly disappearing. But as we said back in April – it’s a long season. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. You need to dig deep and do the extra work. Break through that wall and grab that brass ring. It’s yours for the taking.

**today’s article was inspired by a discussion I had with Kyle Elfrink on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio on Sunday night. If you’re not listening to Kyle on the Fantasy Drive, you’re doing yourself and your fantasy team a grave injustice.