Week 6 of the baseball season has arrived, and we can now see how rotations are shaking out. Injuries and poor performances are thinning the ranks of starting rotations, and it is possible to spot those pitchers that are struggling as the weather warms and we head into May. Regular readers will note the increase in the population of the bottom tier this week, and the middle tier is not as full as we fantasy owners would like. Still, having 28 options to choose from in the top tiers is not exactly a paucity of possibilities.
Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.
Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:
| Start 'em If You Own 'em |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
vs. DET Anibal Sanchez | vs. MIA Justin Nicolino | |
| Mon 5/9 7:05 PM ET | Sat 5/14 1:05 PM ET |
Jacob deGrom NYM | @ LAD Alex Wood | @ COL Tyler Chatwood |
| Tue 5/10 10:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 4:10 PM ET |
Felix Hernandez SEA | vs. TB Drew Smyly | vs. LAA Hector Santiago |
| Mon 5/9 10:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 4:10 PM ET |
Jose Fernandez MIA | vs. MIL Wily Peralta | @ WAS Tanner Roark |
| Mon 5/9 7:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 1:05 PM ET |
Jon Lester CHC | vs. SD Cesar Vargas | vs. PIT Jonathon Niese |
| Mon 5/9 8:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 2:20 PM ET |
Corey Kluber CLE | @ HOU Mike Fiers | vs. MIN Tyler Duffey |
| Mon 5/9 8:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 4:10 PM ET |
Steven Matz NYM | @ LAD Scott Kazmir | @ COL Eddie Butler |
| Mon 5/9 10:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 8:10 PM ET |
Masahiro Tanaka NYY | vs. KC Kris Medlen | vs. CHW Carlos Rodon |
| Tue 5/10 7:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:05 PM ET |
Drew Smyly TB | @ SEA Felix Hernandez | vs. OAK Kendall Graveman |
| Mon 5/9 10:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:10 PM ET |
Aaron Sanchez TOR | @ SF Jake Peavy | @ TEX Colby Lewis |
| Mon 5/9 10:15 PM ET | Sun 5/15 3:05 PM ET |
This week there are 10 residents of the top tier. I find it difficult to drop Felix Hernandez from the upper group, despite his lack of dominance recently. Another poor outing or two this upcoming week and you can expect him to drop to the middle tier. Aaron Sanchez is a new addition to the top tier, and while I worry that he will not stick in the rotation all season, there is no good reason not to take advantage of his current success.
| Maybe Yes, Maybe No |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Joe Ross WAS | vs. DET Michael Fulmer | vs. MIA Adam Conley |
| Tue 5/10 7:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Adam Conley MIA | vs. MIL Zach Davies | @ WAS Joe Ross |
| Tue 5/10 7:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Rubby De La Rosa ARI | @ COL Tyler Chatwood | vs. SF Jake Peavy |
| Mon 5/9 8:40 PM ET | Sat 5/14 8:10 PM ET |
Matt Wisler ATL | vs. PHI Adam Morgan | @ KC Kris Medlen |
| Tue 5/10 7:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 2:15 PM ET |
Chris Devenski HOU | vs. CLE Trevor Bauer | @ BOS TBA |
| Tue 5/10 8:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Cesar Vargas SD | @ CHC Jon Lester | @ MIL Wily Peralta |
| Mon 5/9 8:05 PM ET | Sat 5/14 7:10 PM ET |
Colin Rea SD | @ CHC Kyle Hendricks | @ MIL Zach Davies |
| Tue 5/10 8:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 2:10 PM ET |
Dan Straily CIN | vs. PIT Jonathon Niese | @ PHI Adam Morgan |
| Mon 5/9 7:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Tyler Wilson BAL | @ MIN TBA | vs. DET Michael Fulmer |
| Mon 5/9 8:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Colby Lewis TEX | vs. CHW Carlos Rodon | vs. TOR Aaron Sanchez |
| Mon 5/9 8:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 3:05 PM ET |
Michael Fulmer DET | @ WAS Joe Ross | @ BAL Tyler Wilson |
| Tue 5/10 7:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Kris Medlen KC | @ NYY Masahiro Tanaka | vs. ATL Matt Wisler |
| Tue 5/10 7:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 2:15 PM ET |
Tyler Chatwood COL | vs. ARI Rubby De La Rosa | vs. NYM Jacob deGrom |
| Mon 5/9 8:40 PM ET | Sun 5/15 4:10 PM ET |
Mike Fiers HOU | vs. CLE Corey Kluber | @ BOS Clay Buchholz |
| Mon 5/9 8:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 1:05 PM ET |
Trevor Bauer CLE | @ HOU Chris Devenski | vs. MIN TBA |
| Tue 5/10 8:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:10 PM ET |
Chris Young KC | @ NYY Ivan Nova | vs. ATL Mike Foltynewicz |
| Mon 5/9 7:05 PM ET | Sat 5/14 7:15 PM ET |
Carlos Rodon CHW | @ TEX Colby Lewis | @ NYY Masahiro Tanaka |
| Mon 5/9 8:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:05 PM ET |
Hector Santiago LAA | vs. STL Mike Leake | @ SEA Felix Hernandez |
| Tue 5/10 10:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 4:10 PM ET |
This week I will divide the middle tier into three sub-tiers as is the usual practice in this series of articles. The top sub-tier opens with Joe Ross and runs down through the second of the Padre SPs getting a couple of starts this week, Colin Rea. Ross has been stellar to open the season, posting an excellent 1.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his five starts. He has only allowed four earned runs on the season. He has a couple of home games coming up this week, but with the way he has been pitching this season, it does not really matter where he takes the mound. Conley is striking out better than a batter per inning (9.46 K/9) and he pitches in a park that favors pitchers. He has turned it on over his past two starts, as he settles into his role in the Miami rotation. The end of the week matchup between he and Ross promises to be a great game to watch.
I would like de la Rosa better as a starting option if he had two home games, but his strikeout upside always makes him interesting. Aside from an initial bad start to open the season and a recent poor outing at Miami, he has been strong as a starter. His inconsistency makes him questionable to trust full time, but again, you have to love the swing and miss potential. Wisler has been allowing a few too many long balls to be totally trustworthy, but he mixes speeds well and keeps hitters off-balance for the most part. Certainly, his team is about as bad a baseball team I have seen fielded, but Wisler is not the reason for the problems. Devenski has slotted nicely into the Astro rotation, but is probably the odd-man out once Lance McCullers comes off the DL. Use him now while you can get his starts for your stat line. He offers great control, and an acceptable strikeout ratio.
Vargas is more of a NL-only option, although he has been looking strong since being called up from Double-A at the end of April. He has earned the right to stick in the rotation with his early success, sporting a fine 1.10 ERA over his three starts. The 1.35 WHIP is a concern, and hints towards a regression at some point in the future. Vargas' teammate, Rea, may not sport the same excellent ERA, but he has racked up three victories against one loss on the season, and he has been pushing his bloated ERA down with a series of effective starts, including three QS in his last five starts. I would certainly prefer the pair of San Diego starters to be pitching at home this week instead of on the road against the Cubs, but I also believe both will acquit themselves well.
Dan Straily starts the middle sub-tier, which ends with the Royals' Kris Medlen. Straily has bounced around in his career over the past few seasons, but looks to have settled into the Reds rotation. He does yield more than his share of homers, but he throws a good percentage of strikes. His .201 BABIP tells of an upcoming adjustment, so do not bank on him sticking in your rotation all season. This week, however, he has a pair of good matchups, and just missed making the top sub-tier for me. Wilson has been anointed the fifth starter for the Orioles, and while he will not give you much in the way of Ks, he does have good control and is backed by a good offense. Minnesota on the road and Detroit at home are decent matchups. Lewis has been consistently good, allowing three or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts, and going at least six innings in each of those appearances. He does not strikeout as many as he once did, and is giving up dingers at a rate of 1.89/9 innings, so do not get too comfortable using him, as regression is surely around the corner.
Fulmer is a bright prospect for the Tigers, and looks to have the skills to be a strong back-of-the-rotation starter. He throws hard with a 95 MPH fastball, but as with many young pitchers, he needs to gain confidence with his off-speed pitches to have consistent success. He will be up and down so long as he is part of the Tiger rotation this season, so watch the matchups carefully. This week, heading to both Washington and Baltimore, you need to be desperate for a SP to start him in both games. Medlen winds up this sub-tier, and if he did not have good matchups against the struggling Yankees and Braves, he would probably drop to the bottom of the tier. He does not offer much in terms of strikeouts, and has been struggling with his control, but pitching for the Royals helps improve his value. He has had three good starts out of his five this season, so there is hope, especially when the schedule plays out like in this scoring period.
The final sub-tier begins with Chatwood and winds up with Hector Santiago. Chatwood is a fine option when he pitches away from Coors Field. Unfortunately for his owners, he is at home for two starts this week. I understand the reluctance to use him, although he does show good control and gets a lot of groundballs. His strikeout rate is below average, though, so beware if you need to plug him into your lineup. Fiers' strikeout rate has dropped significantly this season, but he is showing better control than he ever has in his career. His biggest problem is that he is allowing too many balls to be put in play, resulting in an unattractive 5.35 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the season. His home/road splits are about even this season, so there is no clear advantage to using in at home against the Indians or on the road at Boston. I do like the Astros' chances against Clay Buchholz to post a win, although if Fiers cannot avoid bats, he might not be around to take advantage. Bauer's propensity to walk batters (3.86 BB/9) and yield home runs (1.29 HR/9) makes him risky to use as two-start option, although the matchups are not atrocious. Still and such, he is a low-end option this week due to the lack of control and inability to keep the ball within the fences. Young is merely an AL-only option so long as he gives up earned runs at his current rate, as evidenced by his inflated 5.76 ERA over his six starts, covering just 29.2 innings. Realize that the ERA is the best it has been for the right hander since his first appearance on April 5 against the Mets, and perhaps you see an improving SP. What I would say is that he is borderline unusable, and any more struggles and he will drop to the bottom tier.
Rodon has promise, as shown in 2015, but he has failed to make any significant progress this season. He is inconsistent, and walks too many hitters to be effective. The good news is that he has two road starts, and has been significantly better away from Chicago this season and last. Coupled with the great start by the White Sox this season, and if you can take the risk, he is a useful option in Week 6…perhaps. Santiago is an average strikeout pitcher, but he hands out too many free passes and lets hitters take him deep too often to be a top-notch option. The fact that his offense is in the bottom third of the majors also hurts his value. I do not think much of either of his mound opponents in his two starts this week, with Leake being a bottom tier member and as noted above, King Felix is certainly not his usual dominant self, so if desperate for a starter, you could do worse (hint: just look at the bottom tier).
| Not On My Roster |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Anibal Sanchez DET | @ WAS Stephen Strasburg | @ BAL Chris Tillman |
| Mon 5/9 7:05 PM ET | Sat 5/14 7:05 PM ET |
Clay Buchholz BOS | vs. OAK Sonny Gray | vs. HOU Mike Fiers |
| Mon 5/9 7:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 1:05 PM ET |
Jonathon Niese PIT | @ CIN Dan Straily | @ CHC Jon Lester |
| Mon 5/9 7:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 2:20 PM ET |
Robbie Ray ARI | @ COL Chris Rusin | vs. SF Matt Cain |
| Tue 5/10 8:40 PM ET | Sun 5/15 4:10 PM ET |
Matt Cain SF | vs. TOR J.A. Happ | @ ARI Robbie Ray |
| Tue 5/10 10:15 PM ET | Sun 5/15 4:10 PM ET |
Jake Peavy SF | vs. TOR Aaron Sanchez | @ ARI Rubby De La Rosa |
| Mon 5/9 10:15 PM ET | Sat 5/14 8:10 PM ET |
Wily Peralta MIL | @ MIA Jose Fernandez | vs. SD Cesar Vargas |
| Mon 5/9 7:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 7:10 PM ET |
Ivan Nova NYY | vs. KC Chris Young | vs. CHW Jose Quintana |
| Mon 5/9 7:05 PM ET | Sat 5/14 1:05 PM ET |
Zach Davies MIL | @ MIA Adam Conley | vs. SD Colin Rea |
| Tue 5/10 7:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 2:10 PM ET |
Adam Morgan PHI | @ ATL Matt Wisler | vs. CIN Dan Straily |
| Tue 5/10 7:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 1:35 PM ET |
Scott Kazmir LAD | vs. NYM Steven Matz | vs. STL Michael Wacha |
| Mon 5/9 10:10 PM ET | Sat 5/14 9:10 PM ET |
Alex Wood LAD | vs. NYM Jacob deGrom | vs. STL Mike Leake |
| Tue 5/10 10:10 PM ET | Sun 5/15 8:05 PM ET |
Mike Leake STL | @ LAA Hector Santiago | @ LAD Alex Wood |
| Tue 5/10 10:05 PM ET | Sun 5/15 8:05 PM ET |
Week 6 presents a boatload of bad pitching options. I cannot in good faith suggest that you use any of the residents in the bottom tier, even with them getting two starts in the scoring period. Nova has a chance to become a middle tier SP, taking over CC Sabathia's rotation slot while the big man is on the DL. Just realize that as he has been working as a reliever, he will be on a pitch count until he can stretch out as a starter. With the pitch limitation, though, he has limited utility at present.
I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.