Two Start Pitchers for Week 16: DeGrom, Salazar & More

Week 16 of the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Season is upon us, and starting pitching rotations are still a bit hazy as I write this on Saturday morning in rainy downtown Milwaukee, thus all the TBA entries below. Things will get clearer as the week moves on, and I am not just talking about the cloud cover here in southern Wisconsin. I am putting forth the best guesses about who will actually take the mound in the upcoming week, but realize that these projections about rotations are in flux and subject to change. Keep your options open and be ready to adjust accordingly.

To help you prepare your rotations, I present the Two Start Pitchers as scheduled for the next week in MLB action. One caveat is that these charts assume that your fantasy week begins on Monday. I made that decision because I have no leagues that do not provide for a Monday start, and it seems to be the standard scoring system. Of course, if you have questions about starting pitchers who are going on Sunday and thus will presumably have another start during the week being profiled, do not be hesitant to drop me an e-mail (see my address at the bottom of the article) and I will attempt to get back with you in a timely fashion. Of course, you could also look to my Streaming Pitcher articles for additional SP suggestions.

The pitchers below are tiered, the first being no-brainers (in my opinion), the second tier being those I would consider adding to my roster and the final tier comprised of pitchers I do not trust at all. Of course, opinions differ and you can let us know if you disagree in the comments.

Let us move on to see who can provide those helpful two starts in next week's fantasy contests.

The top tier is of course comprised of those starting pitchers I urge you to start no matter who the opponent is or where they are going to take the hill. These are the pitchers you trust. Do they sometimes deliver a poor performance? Certainly, but the idea in fantasy is to minimize risk and these SPs will help you do that.

Because of the uncertainty about Week 16’s starting rotations, the middle tier is smaller than usual. Thus, I am going to divide it into just two sub-tiers. The first begins with Ventura and runs down through Graveman. Ventura was not exactly dominant in his one pre-All Star Game start after coming off the DL with nerve irritation in his throwing arm, but then again, he did look better than he had for some time now in 2015. He had a breakout season in 2014, so expectations are high, and he does still feature a 96 MPH fastball. The Royals seem on a mission, and I expect Ventura to bounce back in the second half of the season, health permitting. Kennedy is likely on the trading block, but his last two starts before the break were not stellar efforts and he has been allowing an alarming number of home runs this season: 20 so far in just 84.1 innings for a 2.1 HR/9 rate. He still offers good K numbers (8.11 K/9), despite featuring a 90 MPH fastball. Two games at Petco would be a big upside for most pitchers but Kennedy has struggled  at home this season. Still, he should generate some decent K numbers against Miami, although you might want to sit him against the Giants. De La Rosa has a couple of home starts against teams that are not that frightening, especially Miami on the road. He is a good source of strikeouts, despite his inflated ERA (5.06). He will need his control to keep the ball in the park this week, but he has limited the free passes for the most part this season. Heaney is making his case to take over the fifth spot in the Angel rotation with his recent performance. He is demonstrating great control (1.32 BB/) to go with decent K numbers (7.57 K/) over his limited 27.1 innings so far. He is keeping the ball in the park and generating a good number of ground balls. If he is still available on your league’s waiver list, grab him now. Gonzalez pitches well when he can throw the ball where he wants. Unfortunately, his control has been spotty this season as evidenced by his 3.42 BB/9 rate. He continues to generate a ton of ground balls (3.22 GB/FB), and keeps the ball from clearing the wall (0.5 HR/9). His .341 BABIP, 3.40 FIP and 71.8% strand rate all hint that he has been somewhat unlucky in his efforts. I am expecting a rebound to expected levels in the second half of the season for the National hurler. Hellickson is dealing with a blister on his pitching hand, and may miss one or both of his scheduled starts. If he can go, I like both his match ups. He has been an average pitcher for the most part this season, and his peripherals would be better without a couple of major meltdowns over the past couple of months, but he did have those awful starts and you need to be prepared for another to take place. Gibson is coming off a string of four consecutive QS prior to the All-Star break, allowing just four earned runs over the last 27.2 innings he has pitched. His BABIP, FIP and strand rate (.287/3.66/80.3% respectively) all scream regression, thus his lower placement in this tier. He does not do anything extremely well, except keep the ball on the ground, but it is hard to argue with his results on the season. Getting to face the Yankees at home at the end of the week is a plus, if facing the Yankees can be considered a positive factor in analyzing a starter in a scoring period. Wood has not posted any awful stats this season, but has still underwhelmed his owners. Coming off a seven earned run effort in Colorado is not a positive, but then again, he does have a 3.76 ERA on the season and an 80:30 K/BB ratio over his 18 starts (105.1 innings), so he has not been terrible. I would look for him to rebound in the second half, but would still only spot start him. Graveman winds up the top sub-tier, and I will confess to a prejudice toward Oakland starting pitchers. Until giving up four earned runs in 5.2 innings against Cleveland in his last start before the All-Star break, he had strung together a streak of seven QS since June 2^nd against the Tigers. He gets Toronto at home, which is a plus, and his second start is in a favorable road venue at AT&T Park, so despite his rather pedestrian overall stats, if you are searching for a plug-in starting pitcher, Graveman is an option. Not necessarily an exciting option, granted, but an option nevertheless.

The second sub-tier opens with Shoemaker and just three pitchers later out with Johnson. Shoemaker certainly has not lived up to expectations that he generated based on his 2014 performance. He is probably pitching this week to secure his position in the rotation, with Jered Weaver due to return from the DL soon and Andrew Heaney making a strong case to take over the fifth rotation slot. Although both starts are at home, his splits have been fairly even between home and road this year, so I do not see that as a big advantage. Eovaldi is a pitcher that gives you bottom line results with ugly peripherals. His 4.50/1.52 ERA and WHIP combination is scary, but he just keeps racking up victories. The strikeout numbers continue at a below league average level (6.52 K/9), despite featuring a 96 MPH fastball. His superb GB/FB ratio helps him succeed (2.10 GB/FB), although the numbers besides his win total are scary for fantasy owners. He is a back of the rotation pitcher for fantasy purposes. Moore has been laboring since returning to action this season. Coming off Tommy John surgery, he is struggling with both his control and dominance: 5.14 K/9, 4.50 BB/9 over his three starts in 2015, consisting of just 14 innings. Remember that Moore was a dominant force prior to his injury, and show some patience if you own him. Just be judicious in starting him as he gets comfortable on the mound again. Johnson is taking over in the Red Sox rotation for the injured Clay Buchholz. He has been pitching well at Triple-A Pawtucket, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 85.2 innings in 16 starts. He is striking out nearly a batter per inning (8.56 K/9), he is walking a few too many batters for my taste, putting up a 2.75 BB/9 rate in his 16 starts at Pawtucket. He is a highly ranked prospect, but let’s hold off on expecting great things until we see how he handles major league hitters.

Not an overwhelming number of pitchers in the bottom tier this week, but that is likely to change as rotations become established by teams following the All-Star break. Do not rely on any of these SPs this scoring period. I do not trust them to put up one good start, let alone two in Week 16. You will rest better if you avoid these bottom tier pitchers.

Should you have questions regarding fantasy baseball, especially starting pitching, you can reach me at ia@fantasyalarm.com to continue the discussion.