Last week was a difficult week with a lot of low spreads. The biggest favorites were the Cowboys and they lost. There are seven games with a line of at least seven points in Week 13, including two at double-digits.
Here are my top survivor picks for the week.
- Los Angeles Rams: The Rams are the biggest favorites of the week at 12.5 points. They have lost three consecutive games The Rams beat up on bad teams. The combined record of the teams they have defeated this season are 27-50-1. The defense has allowed only 4.7 yards per play during the three-game losing streak, while the Jaguars averaged 13.7 points in the last three games. Even if the Rams offense doesn't get going due to injuries, the Jaguars offense will find it difficult to score. The Rams have 30 sacks on the season and the Jaguars average 11.4 points over the last five games.
- Indianapolis Colts: A road divisional game is always a concern, but the Colts are 5-2 in the last seven games with an overtime loss to the Titans and a loss to the Buccaneers last week in which they lost a double-digit lead in the third quarter due to turnovers. The Colts need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Colts beat the Texans, 31-3, in Week 6 and have a done a good job of handling inferior teams this season. The Colts haven't lost to a team with a losing record. The Texans allow an average of 135 rushing yards per game, which is second worst in the NFL and average only 14.9 points per game, which is the lowest in the NFL. The offense is last in DVOA. The Colts have scored at least 30 points in six of the last seven games.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers beat the Falcons in Week 2, 48-25. The game was close until the fourth quarter when Matt Ryan was picked off for two touchdowns to seal the game and Tom Brady threw five touchdowns. The Falcons offense is much worse compared to then and Ryan has one touchdown and five interceptions the last three games. The Buccaneers aren't as good on the road, going 3-3. The Falcons offense is way better with Cordarrelle Patterson, but they don't have much else. While the Buccaneers defense isn't dominant, they will force mistakes and Ryan has been susceptible to mistakes recently.