Heroic (World rank: #4) vs. Liquid (World rank: #15) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-300) | Liquid (+235)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+105) | Liquid +1.5 (-130)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket semi-final of BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021.
- Heroic - Rating at event: TeSeS 1.10 | stavn 1.08 | refrezh 1.03 | sjuush 0.97 | cadiaN 0.86
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.10 | refrezh 1.06 | cadiaN 1.04 | sjuush 1.03 | TeSeS 1.02
- Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.19 | EliGE 0.97 | Stewie2K 0.94 | FalleN 0.93 | Grim 0.92
- Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.18 | EliGE 1.15 | Stewie2K 1.03 | FalleN 1.01 | Grim 1.01
H2H Data:
- These rosters last faced each other in September at the ESL Pro League Season 14 quarter-finals. Heroic won the series 2-1 (12-16 Overpass / 16-12 Nuke / 19-16 Inferno) after an unbelievable 1v5 clutch from refrezh in round 30 of Inferno to send the map to overtime. Refrezh led the way with 86 kills and a 1.37 Rating across three maps.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
Liquid removes Ancient
Heroic picks Nuke
Liquid picks Mirage
Heroic removes Inferno
Liquid removes Vertigo
Overpass is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (14 maps): 9-6 W/L record, 43.3% pistol round win percent, 75.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (14 maps): stavn +38 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | refrezh +20 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | sjuush +8 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | cadiaN +7 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Mirage past three months (5 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): sjuush +5 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | stavn +5 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | refrezh +2 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Overpass past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 61.1% pistol round win percent, 70.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (9 maps): refrezh +23 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | stavn +28 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | TeSeS +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | cadiaN +9 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): EliGE +18 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | NAF +15 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Grim +6 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Stewie2K +3 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 44.4% pistol round win percent, 77.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): EliGE +6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | NAF +19 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Grim +9 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | FalleN +12 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Stewie2K +2 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 5-0 W/L record, 30.0% pistol round win percent, 80.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): NAF +31 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | Stewie2K +21 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | EliGE 0 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Grim -2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.
Liquid were one kill away from advancing to the ESL Pro League Season 14 semi-finals when refrezh picked them apart in a 1v5, which is easily one of the best highlights of the year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxjbZEO2WDk). You better believe that round is still fresh in the mind of the Liquid players, and for that reason I think that Heroic come into this series with a mental edge over their opponents. The Danes of Astralis have historically dominated Liquid in a one-sided rivalry, and Heroic may follow suit with their talented Danish roster. Beyond that, Liquid are at the heart of several roster change rumors right now, and the lineup that they are playing with will be effectively dead in the future, as far as we know. Meanwhile, Heroic continue to prove that they are an elite, top-five team in the world even on LAN. Thus, the future looks a lot brighter for the Danes, which is certainly something to consider, especially in terms of prep. Liquid did surprise the public with their win over NiP on Friday, but I expect them to fall short here against a better team. This LAN event takes place in Copenhagen, Denmark, so the home crowd should give Heroic an additional edge.
We can be pretty sure that Heroic will pick their favorite map, Nuke. Heroic’s 9-6 W/L record on Nuke in the past three months is far superior to Liquid’s 3-5 W/L record during that time on that map. Plus, Liquid have struggled against some weaker opponents (7-16 against paiN in October / 8-16 against GODSENT in October), and Heroic won on Nuke when these teams last met. Therefore, Heroic should have their map pick locked up. Liquid have been picking Mirage lately, and they just beat NiP 16-4 on that map on Friday, so they may go for it again in this spot. However, Heroic have been tested on that map a bunch recently with wins against NAVI, FaZe and Virtus.pro on LAN in the past month. Liquid come go for their most played map, Inferno, but they’ve lost three in a row on that map, and they’d also probably be tilted just thinking about that refrezh clutch. Overpass would be the other possible option, but Heroic have played that map really well as of late, and Mirage is an easier map to pick for a team that is likely not doing a lot of prepping. In any scenario, I think Heroic should have this series in two maps.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
TeSeS ($5,800) | refrezh ($8,400) | stavn ($9,800) | cadiaN ($7,600) | sjuush ($6,600)
TeSeS is the highest rated player on his team at this event with a 1.10 Rating, yet he is the cheapest on Draftkings. He makes a ton of sense as a value play. My other favorite play here is refrezh. He dominated Liquid last time as the top performer on the server, and $8,400 seems like a reasonable price for his upside here. I’m not looking to play Liquid on this slate, but NAF would be the safest option while EliGE might have a higher ceiling with more risk.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Vitality (World rank: #5) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-360) | Vitality (+275)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-105) | Vitality +1.5 (-115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-170)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket final of BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021.
- NAVI - Rating at event: b1t 1.32 | s1mple 1.30 | electronic 1.19 | Boombl4 1.10 | Perfecto 0.96
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.32 | electronic 1.15 | b1t 1.13 | Perfecto 1.05 | Boombl4 0.98
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.46 | apEX 1.12 | shox 1.02 | misutaaa 0.97 | Kyojin 0.88
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.31 | apEX 1.04 | shox 1.04 | misutaaa 1.01 | Kyojin 0.92
H2H Data:
- These rosters last faced earlier this month at the quarter-finals of PGL Major Stockholm. NAVI did not drop a single map at the biggest event of the year, including their 2-0 sweep against the French (16-11 Dust2 / 16-13 Nuke). Perfecto was at the top of the leaderboards with 50 kills and a 1.44 Rating across two maps played.
Map Projections:
NAVI removes Vertigo
Vitality removes Ancient
NAVI picks Nuke
Vitality picks Dust2
NAVI removes Inferno
Vitality removes Overpass
Mirage is left over
NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past three months (13 maps): 13-0 W/L record, 65.4% pistol round win percent, 76.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (13 maps): s1mple +122 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | electronic +36 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | b1t +53 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Perfecto +4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 75.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): Perfecto +41 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | s1mple +24 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | electronic +17 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Boombl4 +6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | b1t +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past three months (11 maps): 8-3 W/L record, 63.6% pistol round win percent, 78.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (11 maps): s1mple +91 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | electronic +9 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Perfecto +8 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 55.6% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): ZywOo +87 K/D Diff, 1.42 Rating | apEX +1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | misutaaa +3 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 74.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (9 maps): ZywOo +68 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | misutaaa +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | shox +22 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | apEX -9 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 75.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): ZywOo +47 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | shox +10 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-1.
I can’t say enough good things about NAVI. They’re still clearly the best team in the world, and they lead this event as the top rated team with a 1.17 Rating across five maps played. If we want to get nit-picky, then NAVI did look slightly vulnerable on Thursday against Heroic, with the Danes stealing Mirage and all three maps going 27+ rounds. Additionally, Vitality are in a similar boat to Liquid where their roster is ‘effectively dead’ with rumored changes likely to happen after this event. Still, Vitality is one of the few teams in the world that I think can still give NAVI a run for their money, even if the French are in a weird transitional period. These teams have played four times this year and NAVI only swept once, which was at the Major where NAVI were locked in and did not drop a single map to any opponent. NAVI are obviously the favorite, but I expect this to be a closer series than the odds project, and I could definitely see Vitality winning a map.
NAVI have won 19 in a row on Nuke, so it would be foolish to pick against them on that map despite the fact that Vitality have been pretty solid on it. If there is one map that you don’t want to play NAVI on, it would be Nuke, but it take them 29 rounds to beat Vitality on that map last time, so the upset isn’t impossible. As for Vitality, they will likely stick with Dust2, which has been their map of choice as of late. Vitality won their T side 8-7 last time on Dust2 against NAVI, but they couldn’t establish a CT economy after losing the second half pistol round, and NAVI closed out the map 16-11. NAVI aren’t as dominant on Dust2 as they were in the past, and we still have only see them play that map a handful of times since the recent update, so I think that Dust2 would be Vitality’s best shot at winning a map.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($7,200) | s1mple ($10,400) | Perfecto ($7,000) | b1t ($7,800) | electronic ($9,200) | misutaaa ($4,800) | apEX ($5,400)
ZywOo is the highest rated player at this event with a 1.46 Rating across five maps played, and he will almost certainly attempt to hard carry his team to victory on Saturday. If Vitality are able to keep things close, then he would be an absolute lock at his $7,200 salary on Draftkings. I’d still prefer to stack two NAVI members alongside ZywOo with s1mple as the top option on his team per usual, but these prices on Vitality are hard to ignore. Only $4,800 for misutaaa? That seems like a punt play that could easily pay off brilliantly.