K23 (World rank: #48) vs. forZe (World rank: #29) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: K23 (+130) | forZe (-155)
Map Handicap: K23 +1.5 (-220) | forZe -1.5 (+180)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the round of 16 of the REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2 Playoffs.
- K23 - Rating at event: n0rb3r7 1.26 | fame 1.26 | X5G7V 1.15 | neaLaN 1.09 | xsepower 1.08
- K23 - Rating past three months: n0rb3r7 1.11 | xsepower 1.09 | fame 1.08 | X5G7V 1.04 | neaLaN 0.97
- forZe - Rating at event: Norwi 1.06 (with Singularity)
- forZe - Rating past three months: zorte 1.13 | KENSI 1.10 | shalfey 1.08 | Norwi 1.08 | Jerry 1.03
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Both teams have made multiple changes to their rosters since the teams last met in October 2021.
Map Projections:
K23 removes Vertigo
forZe removes Dust2
K23 picks Inferno
forZe picks Mirage
K23 removes Ancient
forZe removes Overpass
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: forZe wins 2-1.
Both of these rosters are still pretty new. This new forZe lineup has won 13 of their 26 maps played together, while K23 have won 12 of their 27 maps played together with their new roster. K23 were the third highest rated team during the group stage of REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2, but they had a fairly easy group, meanwhile forZe got invited directly to the playoffs. Anything can happen with two CIS teams on the server, but I do think that forZe have looked like the clear better team so far, and I expect them to handle K23 in this spot.
The map pool looks less than desirable for K23, who haven’t exactly established a ‘dominant map’ with their new lineup. Their most played map has been Nuke, but they have only won four out of nine times on that map. ForZe have a slightly better record on Nuke at 3-3, and they also beat ENCE & Spirit on that map, while K23 lost to both of those opponents on that map. Inferno might make the most sense as the map pick for K23 here despite their struggles with a 2-4 record so far. ForZe have a 2-2 record on Inferno and have beaten BIG & GamerLegion on that map, so K23 don’t seem to have an advantage on that map, and there aren’t any other go-to maps that they can really look to. ForZe should pick Mirage where they have a dominant 80% 5v4 conversion rate to go along with their 4-2 W/L record. Shalfey leads this lineup with a 1.16 Rating on Mirage, while KENSI leads on Inferno with a 1.12 Rating, so both players are a priority for me on this slate. I’m giving K23 enough credit to steal a map here, but they should be underdogs across the map pool, so forZe should have this series locked up one way or another, and a sweep is certainly possible. A three stack from forZe would be my preference, but I also don't mind having some exposure to K23.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
shalfey ($7,400) | KENSI ($8,400) | zorte ($9,200) | Norwi ($6,400) | n0rb3r7 ($7,600) | Jerry ($5,600) | xsepower ($6,800)
Fnatic (World rank: #32) vs. SAW (World rank: #55) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-1010) | SAW (+650)
Map Handicap: Fnatic -1.5 (-215) | SAW +1.5 (+175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+210) | Under 2.5 (-265)
- This is a best-of-three series for the round of 16 of the REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2 Playoffs.
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: smooya 1.31 | Brollan 1.11 | mezii 1.11 | KRIMZ 1.02 | ALEX 0.99
- SAW - Rating past three months: JUST 1.14 | stadodo 1.08 | rmn 1.03 | arki 1.01 | MUTiRiS 0.99
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Fnatic removes Ancient
SAW removes Mirage
Fnatic picks Overpass
SAW picks Vertigo
Fnatic removes Dust2
SAW removes Inferno
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Fnatic wins 2-0.
With smooya in the lineup, Fnatic continues to be a dominant force. They have won 21 out of 24 maps played together with this roster, and they just won DreamHack Open November 2021 on Sunday with a win over BIG. There is a ton of firepower on this team, and they continue to roll against the tier two scene. We haven’t seen SAW play much recently, and they are always a team that shouldn’t be underestimate. Still, it would be a shock to see SAW even win a map here given the excellent form that Fnatic continues to show. The odds have Fnatic as a massive favorite here, though (-1010) moneyline odds seem steep. I’m not rushing to bet Fnatic moneyline at those odds, but I am heavily prioritizing them as a stack for fantasy.
The only map that SAW have a win rate over 50% on in the past three months has been Vertigo, so I expect them to pick it here. They are 4-2 on Vertigo with wins against decent teams like Apeks & Enterprise, and I do think that they are fairly solid on that map. Still, getting past Fnatic will be a tall task considering Fnatic have a 3-0 W/L record on Vertigo with their new lineup, and they have beaten three solid teams: BIG, Eternal Fire & FunPlus Phoenix. Fnatic have impressed with an 86.5% 5v4 conversion rate and 36.4% 4v5 conversion rate on Vertigo during that time. The rest of the map pool should be well in the favor of Fnatic, and they can comfortably pick Overpass or Inferno here. Brollan leads this roster with a 1.19 Rating on Vertigo, while KRIMZ has also stepped up on that map with a 1.10 Rating, which makes both of them more of a priority for me on this slate. All signs point to an easy 2-0 sweep for Fnatic here, and a three stack is a no brainer.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Brollan ($9,000) | smooya ($10,000) | mezii ($8,000) | KRIMZ ($7,000) | ALEX ($5,800) | stadodo ($6,000)