G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Astralis (World rank: #10)
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-145) | Astralis (+120)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+200) | Astralis +1.5 (-250)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of IEM Cologne 2021.
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.24 | huNter- 1.21 | JaCkz 1.11 | AmaNEk 1.02 | nexa 0.99
- G2- Rating past three months: NiKo 1.20 | huNter- 1.13 | AmaNEk 1.02 | nexa 1.00 | JaCkz 0.94
- Astralis - Rating at event: Xyp9x 1.10 | Magisk 1.06| Bubzkji 1.04 | dupreeh 1.02 | gla1ve 0.98
- Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.09 | dupreeh 1.01 | Xyp9x 1.01 | Bubzkji 1.00 | gla1ve 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other in May for the quarter-finals of DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 and G2 won the series 2-1 (16-7 Train / 14-16 Nuke / 16-8 Vertigo) with NiKo as the top frag (67 kills, 40 deaths, 83.7 ADR, 1.35 Rating).
Projected Maps:
G2 removes Overpass
Astralis removes Mirage
G2 picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
G2 removes Ancient
Astralis removes Vertigo
Dust2 is left over.
Key Stats:
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (15 maps): 10-5 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 76.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.2% round win percent after receiving first death
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (15 maps): huNter +48 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | NiKo +33 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | AmaNEk +7 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | nexa +10 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.4% round win percent after receiving first death
G2 - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): NiKo +39 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | AmaNEk +55 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | huNter- +9 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 67.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): Magisk +4 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Xyp9x +14 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Nuke past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Astralis - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (10 maps): Magisk +56 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | dupreeh +3 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Analysis:
G2 won this match-up pretty easily last time, but Astralis had only played five maps with this roster that no longer includes device, so it was still early days for the Danes. Astralis also typically seem to be better against teams the second time they play them because they are elite at anti-stratting, so there is some hope for them as an underdog here. Still, I think that G2 is the stronger team at the moment, and I have them winning this series. Anything can happen with the map pool at this stage of the playoffs, so we cannot be certain about what these teams will pick. Inferno has been G2’s strongest map and I think it is their best option despite the strength that Astralis showed on Friday with a 16-8 win against Virtus.pro. Nuke seems most likely for Astralis, and the map has historically been good for them, but G2 took Astralis to 30 rounds last time on that map, and it would not surprise me to see G2 steal Nuke. NiKo and huNter- both look like excellent plays, but I project them pretty similarly, so I definitely prefer huNter- at his cheaper price. I like nexa and AmaNEk as value plays with potential upside to top frag, with AmaNEk being my favorite of the two. Nexa used to be more of a fragging IGL, and we know what he is capable of, while AmaNEk has shown flashes of brilliance with the AWP, and AWPers tend to perform well for DFS. JaCkz is the lowest priority for me, but if he is having a hot day then his entry fragging upside could be something to consider. Everyone on Astralis is really cheap and could help open up some salary relief in your lineup, but they are not a priority for me, though you could mix in one Astralis player with two G2 players, and magisk stands out the most at only $7,000. A three stack from G2 with huNter- is my favorite play for this series.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. FaZe (World rank: #17)
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-265) | FaZe (+210)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+135) | FaZe +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of IEM Cologne 2021.
- NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.52 | electronic 1.25 | B1T 1.18 | Perfecto 1.14 | Boombl4 0.96
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.35 | electronic 1.15 | B1T 1.09 | Perfecto 1.04 | Boombl4 0.95
- FaZe - Rating at event: Twistzz 1.19 | broky 1.17 | rain 1.00 | olofmeister 0.96 | karrigan 0.91
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.12 | rain 0.99 | olofmeister 0.95 | karrigan 0.88
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other in June at the upper bracket quarter-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021 and NAVI won 2-1 (9-16 Ancient / 16-14 Dust2 / 16-14 Mirage) with s1mple as top frag (69 kills, 53 deaths, 82.7 ADR, 1.17 Rating).
Projected Maps:
NAVI removes Vertigo
FaZe removes Nuke
NAVI picks Dust2
FaZe picks Ancient
NAVI removes Inferno
FaZe removes Overpass
Mirage is left over.
Key Stats:
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (22 maps): 13-9 W/L record, 45.5% pistol round win percent, 73.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.6% round win percent after receiving first death
NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (22 maps): s1mple +150 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | electronic +40 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | B1T +44 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Perfecto +17 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
NAVI- Key stats on Ancient past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 73.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.5% round win percent after receiving first death
NAVI - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (5 maps): s1mple +31 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | B1T +15 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | electronic +4 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Perfecto +4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 68.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.0% round win percent after receiving first death
FaZe - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): Twistzz +15 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | rain +11 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Ancient past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 74.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.8% round win percent after receiving first death
FaZe - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (5 maps): rain +5 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | broky +16 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Twistzz +6 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Analysis:
NAVI beat FaZe 2-1 last time, but it was a close series with NAVI taking the full 30 rounds to secure both of their map wins, 16-14. This was also the first series for FaZe with olofmeister back in the lineup for coldzera, and FaZe has looked even better on LAN, so there are reasons to have faith in the underdog here. The maps are not obvious for this series, especially since teams sometimes get tricky during the playoffs. FaZe caught NAVI by surprise by the Ancient pick last time and managed to beat them, but NAVI should be ready for it this time. Still, I think it makes sense as the pick for FaZe, and they should have confidence after coming back from a 1-11 deficit on that map against Gambit on Friday. NAVI would be guaranteed 15 rounds on CT side if FaZe do pick Ancient, so that could be a favorable spot for DFS for the NAVI side. S1mple is the clear best play from this series at $9,200 and he should be highly owned as always. He looks to be in great form for this tournament, and it is rare to see a bad day from him in general, so you can feel pretty safe locking him in your lineup, especially as captain. S1mple is the highest rated player at the event with a 1.52 Rating across nine maps played, and NAVI is the highest rated team as well with a 1.21 Rating during that time. B1T would be my next favorite from NAVI at $7,400, and I like electronic and Perfecto too, but at least one of them will probably struggle in this match-up since I do think it will be a bit more competitive than the odds suggest, though I definitely favor NAVI. Boombl4 is a punt play per usual and I do not plan on having much exposure to him. Twistzz, broky and rain are all really interesting in this spot, especially given the projected maps, and I might try to mix them into some lineups, but NAVI stacks remain my preferred option. FaZe can keep this series close, but ultimately, I think NAVI comes out on top.
**Favorite Stacks: G2, NAVI
**Favorite CPT plays: s1mple, huNter-, NiKo, electronic
**Favorite value plays: AmaNEk, B1T, nexa, Perfecto, Twistzz