Virtus.pro (World rank: #9) vs. Astralis (World rank: #10) 

Moneyline Odds: Virtus.pro (+110) | Astralis (-135) 

Map Handicap: Virtus.pro +1.5 (-300) | Astralis -1.5 (+235) 

Map Total: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-110)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of IEM Cologne 2021.
  • Virtus.pro - Rating at event: YEKINDAR 1.16 | Qikert 1.11 | Jame 1.11 | buster 1.01 | SANJI 0.78
  • Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: Jame 1.15 | YEKINDAR 1.06 | Qikert 1.03 | buster 0.99 | SANJI 0.89
  • Astralis - Rating at event: Xyp9x 1.06 | dupreeh 1.06 | Magisk 1.04 | gla1ve 0.97 | Bubzkji 0.95
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.08 | dupreeh 1.02 | Xyp9x 0.99 | Bubzkji 0.98 | gla1ve 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced back in March at ESL Pro League S13, device was still on Astralis instead of Bubzkji. Astralis won that series 2-1 (16-13 Inferno / 23-25 Train / 16-9 Vertigo) and gla1ve top fragged with 75 kills and a 1.16 Rating.

Projected Maps:

                Virtus.pro removes Nuke

                Astralis removes Mirage

                Virtus.pro picks Inferno

                Astralis picks Vertigo

                Virtus.pro removes Overpass

                Astralis removes Ancient

                Dust2 is left over.

 Key Stats:               

Virtus.pro - Key stats on Inferno past three months (16 maps): 10-6 W/L record, 34.4% pistol round win percent, 74.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.0% round win percent after receiving first death

Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (16 maps): Jame +71 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | YEKINDAR -21 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Qikert -20 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | SANJI +4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

Virtus.pro - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 64.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): Jame +16 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | buster -2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating 

 

Astralis- Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 64.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): Magisk -10 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Xyp9x +4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating 

Astralis- Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 68.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.8% round win percent after receiving first death

Astralis - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): dupreeh +25 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Bubzkji +14 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Xyp9x +1 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating 

Analysis:

I have been riding with Virtus.pro throughout the group stage because the Draftkings pricing was way too cheap. In their match-up against Complexity, Jame was $7,400 and YEKINDAR was $6,600 and the odds for Virtus.pro moneyline were identical at (+110). Thus, it is hard for me to get as excited for Jame now that he is $1,000 more in a similar spot in terms of his team’s odds to win, but he does still look like a decent play at $8,400. YEKINDAR still has incredible upside at $7,400 with his entry fragging. We saw him get 20 entry kills in that series against Complexity, which is a nice 10 DK point bonus at 0.5 DK points per entry kill.  Still, Astralis will be the main target for me here since I favor them to win this series, probably in three maps, but if VP do pick Inferno, then we know that Astralis is capable of stealing that map. Magisk is a bit expensive, and I like the spend-up options better in the Gambit/FaZe series, but he looks like a solid play regardless. I think dupreeh should be a smash play at $8,000 and he is my favorite play from this series. I think there is some added upside with dupreeh at the moment since his stats have improved now that Astralis is having Gla1ve take over some of the AWP responsibilities, and Draftkings is yet to catch up with that trend in terms of their pricing. Xyp9x looks like a good value play at $7,000, and his success usually correlates heavily with the team’s success, so he makes a lot of sense in an Astralis stack. My second favorite play here is actually Bubzkji because I think he is simply too cheap at $6,000 and the map pool could work out pretty nicely for him. He has been the lowest rated player for Astralis at this event, so there is risk, but the upside could be massive. Astralis have switched up their map pick recently, even picking Ancient against NAVI (which backfired in a 7-16 loss), but Vertigo makes the most sense here. VP have lost Vertigo eight of their last nine times, including most recently a 5-16 stomping from Vitality. We have not even seen them play the map in a month, so if VP are going to ban away Nuke, then Vertigo has to be the pick for Astralis. Gla1ve is not my favorite play here, but he thrived in this match-up last time and his price is so cheap that he could be worth taking some shots on. A three stack from Astralis is my favorite way to play this series for DFS, but Jame could make a good one off if you wanted to mix in one player from VP. 

  

Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. FaZe (World rank: #17) 

Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-260) | FaZe (+205)

Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+125) | FaZe +1.5 (-155)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of IEM Cologne 2021.
  • Gambit - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.24 | Hobbit 1.20 | Ax1Le 1.19 | nafany 1.18 | interz 0.91 
  • Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.22 | Hobbit 1.19 | Ax1Le 1.19 | nafany 1.07 | interz 0.97
  • FaZe - Rating at event: Twistzz 1.22 | broky 1.14 | rain 1.02 | olofmeister 0.98 | karrigan 0.88
  • FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.11 | rain 1.00 | olofmeister 0.96 | karrigan 0.87

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Projected Maps:

                Gambit removes Nuke

                FaZe removes Vertigo

                Gambit picks Overpass

                FaZe picks Mirage

               Gambit removes Ancient

                FaZe removes Inferno

                Dust2 is left over.

Key Stats:                  

Gambit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (10 maps): 6-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.7% round win percent after receiving first death

Gambit- Notable performers on Overpass past three months (10 maps): Ax1Le +56 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | Hobbit +35 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | sh1ro +15 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating s

Gambit- Key stats on Mirage past three months (19 maps): 15-4 W/L record, 55.3% pistol round win percent, 75.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.0% round win percent after receiving first death

Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (19 maps): sh1ro +148 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | Ax1Le +59 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Hobbit +31 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | nafany -3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating 

 

FaZe - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 72.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.4% round win percent after receiving first death

FaZe - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): Twistzz +16 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | rain +3 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating 

FaZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 83.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.0% round win percent after receiving first death

FaZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): broky +38 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | Twistzz +20 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | olofmeister +12 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating 

Analysis:

I had high hopes for this FaZe roster on LAN with olofmeister back in the mix, and they have not disappointed thus far. Still, I think this is the end of the road for FaZe at IEM Cologne 2021 because they are still severely outmatched against Gambit. I see this match-up as one where FaZe would consider it a win just to take a map against Gambit. The map pool for Gambit is just too strong, and they should come out on top in a best-of-three, whether it is in a 2-0 or 2-1 fashion. Twistzz, broky, and olofmeister all look like decent plays on FaZe with Twistzz being my favorite, but Gambit will be the target for me here for sure. I consider all five members of Gambit to be in play for this slate with Hobbit being a great value play at only $7,600. Ax1Le and sh1ro should both be smash plays as well, and I would pay up for their salaries by finding value in the other series. Ax1Le would be my favorite to put in the captain spot for this match-up based on maps and pricing, but Hobbit is such a good value that he works almost just as well. Nafany has upside similar to YEKINDAR with his entry fragging, but I do not see this as the best match-up for him, so he is not my favorite option here. Interz looks fine at $5,800 as well, but Ax1Le, Hobbit, and sh1ro are all bigger priorities for me in that order. A three stack from Gambit is definitely my preference for this series, though you could also mix one of Twistzz, broky, or olofmeister with two Gambit players if you wanted some FaZe exposure. 

 

**Favorite Stacks: Gambit, Astralis

**Favorite CPT plays: Ax1Le, dupreeh, Hobbit, sh1ro, magisk

**Favorite value plays: Bubzkji, Xyp9x, interz, nafany