UFC 224 rolls into Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with a train full of Brazilian fighters looking to represent the green & yellow inside in the Octagon. We have a 13-fight slate on tap for Saturday night with Amanda Nunes in the main event as a -900 favorite over Raquel Pennington. In the co-main event Jacare Souza is taking on Kelvin Gastelum in a barn-burner of a matchup in the Middleweight division. In the UFC “Masters” division 41-year-old Vitor Belfort is taking on 39-year-old Lyoto Machida where the winner of the bout earns a free hip replacement and prune juice for the next two years! Hopefully they can both stay up until their fight starts around 11:00 PM, as they would have eaten dinner around 4:00 PM earlier that day. Should be an interesting battle with walkers being allowed in the cage of a sanctioned MMA competition for the first time ever!

Without further ado, let’s get on with the preview of a card that has a good mix of young, old, and very old!

 

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Markus Perez

Vs.

James Bochnovic

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

1

Record

8

2

0

1

UFC Record

0

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-300

Vegas Odds

242

40%

% Fights to Dec

0%

-121

Inside The Distance Prop

645

 

Snapshot:

The first fight of the evening has Brazilian Markus Perez (9-1) taking on Midwest based fighter James Bochnovic. Perez is 0-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Eryk Anders in his UFC debut. The Brazilian has shown in the past he’s a well-rounded fighter but now he needs to show that in the UFC. Bochnovic (8-2) is 0-1 in the UFC with a brutal KO loss to Trevin Giles in his Octagon debut. The American had racked up eight-straight finishes prior to the loss to Giles and still has something to prove in the UFC. Both of these guys have some serious holes in their fight games, while Bochnovic, the Ben Rothwell trained Muay Thai fighter, displays probably the biggest hole when it comes to his striking defense and his lack of well-rounded assets that he brings into the cage.

I like Perez in large GPP formats, as he has the ability to end this fight quickly and violently. On top of that, Bochnovic does not have very good takedown defense and I suspect that Perez will expose this and rack up some serious points on the mat before locking up a 2nd round submission and scoring us 100+ points. He’s a risk in Cash games and smaller GPP’s, but I like his $9,200 salary and the odds that he pays that off.

PICK: Perez, Sub, 2nd                                              

Cash Game: Perez (6/10)

GPP: Perez (8/10)

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Alberto Mina

Vs.

Ramazan Emeev

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

0

Record

16

3

3

0

UFC Record

1

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,500

DK Salary

$8,700

166

Vegas Odds

-204

8%

% Fights to Dec

37%

265

Inside The Distance Prop

158

 

Snapshot:

Ramazan Emeev (16-3) is 30 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Sam Alvey in his Octagon debut. The Russian is currently on a five-fight win streak overall and has wins over the likes of Maiquel Falcao and Luigi Fioravanti. The former M-1 middleweight champion is a very-well rounded fighter and should go far in the UFC.

Alberto Mina (13-0) is 36 and he’s 3-0 in the UFC with a knockout win over Mike Pyle in his last matchup. The Brazilian is one of the longest active undefeated fighters in the sport, having not lost a fight in 13 years of competing. He is a very dangerous fighter with a vicious striking game and slick ground skills and all but one of his wins are by stoppage. The problem is he isn’t active and hasn’t fought in two years. Ring rust must be taken into consideration here, and this scares me. Yes, some fighters don’t have any issues with ring rust, while other fighters have a big issue with it. It’s difficult to predict, so you must proceed with caution when rostering a fighter such as this.

Mina has proven to be very resourceful thus far in his UFC career, taking what his opponent gives him to work with. He may have to work off his back – a low probability for picking up a decision or a submission – or catch Emeev on the chin with one of his wild punches. Emeev’s chin has proven very durable in the Russian circuit and I’d be shocked if it doesn’t continue to hold up. I like the Russian’s chances. I think Emeev wins by decision, but any time that you are taking a non-Brazilian fighter to win by decision over a Brazilian fighter when they are fighting in Brazil, you are rolling the dice, as it’s been proven that Brazilian judges seem to view the fight through green and yellow colored glasses. This one should be a wide enough margin of victory for this to not come into play though, but crazier things have happened in the past!

PICK: Emeev, Dec, Split                               

Cash Game: Emeev (6.5/10)

GPP: Emeev (7/10)

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Thales Leites

Vs.

Jack Hermansson

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

27

8

Record

16

4

12

7

UFC Record

3

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,900

DK Salary

$8,300

128

Vegas Odds

-153

43%

% Fights to Dec

20%

400

Inside The Distance Prop

226

 

Snapshot:

Jack Hermansson (16-4) is 29 and he’s 3-2 in the UFC with a TKO loss to Thiago Santos in his last bout. The Swede is a dangerous finisher with 13 career stoppage wins including two knockouts in the UFC. He’s a huge middleweight and although his defense is lacking there’s no doubt his offense is solid. Hermansson was showing great improvements in a pair of wins over Alex Nicholson and Brad Scott, getting them to the ground quickly and pounding them out with a vicious brand of GnP. However, his inability to get Thiago Santos to the mat indicates the strides he made in his wrestling may not be as great as originally thought. Regardless, he may be reluctant to utilize his wrestling – only one opponent has scored a takedown on Leites since 2008 and it isn’t because of Leites’ takedown defense – which means he’ll need to win this contest on the feet.

Thales Leites (27-8) is 36 and he’s 12-7 in the UFC. The Brazilian is a long-time veteran of the sport and has proven over his career to be a dangerous finisher with 19 stoppage wins, and has never been. But he’s lost four of his last six fights and seems to be slowing down. Leites isn’t the most savvy Muay Thai practitioner, but he does have some sneaky power and the ability to chip away in a point contest with low kicks. Still, it is his grappling that opponents fear the most, with good reason.

This isn’t a fight I will be targeting in any format, so you may want to save your roster spots for others. Leites has a solid chin, so I wouldn’t suspect Hermansson to stop Leites in this one. This most likely will be a fight that goes back and forth and really doesn’t score many DK points either way. If you are looking to target some fighters who will be low owned and not targeted by the masses, then these two are right up your alley!

PICK: Hermansson, Decision, Unanimous               

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

                                                           

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Warlley Alves

Vs.

Sultan Aliev

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

2

Record

14

2

5

2

UFC Record

1

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

2

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

-236

Vegas Odds

189

46%

% Fights to Dec

31%

160

Inside The Distance Prop

423

 

Snapshot:

Warley Alves (11-2) is 27 and he’s 5-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian won The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 and is coming off of a decision win over Salim Touahri. He is a submission specialist with 10 finishes by tapout in his career. Alves has a dynamic, powerful striking game that combines power and quickness early in the fight. You probably realized that I just said, “early on in the fight”. There’s a good reason for that. Alves has a shitty gas tank and has proven to fade as the fight progresses. His cardio is his big weakness, but his athleticism often times makes up for that, allowing him to impress the judges over the first few rounds and squeaking out a decision victory if he didn’t lock up a neck in his grasp.

Sultan Aliev (14-2) is 33 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Bojan Velickovic in his last fight. The Russian has a lot of finishing power as evidenced by his 10 knockout wins and a solid wrestling background. A knockout loss to Kenny Robertson in his UFC is very concerning as is the fact he hasn’t fought in well over a year, and this down time is not a good trait to have when fighting an explosive, athletic fighter like Alves. The explosive pace that Alves brings early has the potential to surprise the inexperienced UFC fighter in Aliev. A potential recipe for disaster. Aliev will want to avoid getting caught by Alves early on and getting the fight to the ground and controlling top position as Alves gases will be Aliev’s ultimately, goal, and this does not bode well for our DK rosters if he accomplishes this, and this is the main reason why I don’t love this fight.

This is a close fight, and there are a lot of different ways that this one could go, but the risk posed here are too significant to invest heavily in.

PICK: Alves, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Alves (7/10)

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Vs.

Sean Strickland

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

18

5

Record

19

2

4

1

UFC Record

6

2

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

-136

Vegas Odds

111

30%

% Fights to Dec

43%

365

Inside The Distance Prop

545

 

Snapshot:

Fight # 5 is a great fight to watch as a fan, and one that I’ve had circled, but having it circled on the card doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a great fight to target from a DFS perspective. Dos Santos (18-5) is 31 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Max Griffin in his last bout. The Brazilian is riding a four-fight win streak at the moment and three of those bouts won “Fight of the Night.”

Sean Strickland (19-2) is 27 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC with a decision win over Court McGee in his last fight. The American has mostly turned into a volume-based striker in the UFC who uses his long reach to score points and win decisions. He’s a good fighter, though just a tier below top-15 level.

Both fighters are very difficult to finish, and I suspect that this fist-a-cuffs won’t be any different! They’ll go at it, entertaining the fans in the venue and on their couches, and most likely will earn “Fight of the Night” honors, but this isn’t the type of style we’re looking for when it comes to filling out our rosters. For this reason I’ll be avoiding this one in all formats. Too close to call to roster either fighter in my Cash LU’s, and too difficult to put either of these fighters away to have confidence in rostering either of these guys in my GPP LU’s. I may have a roster or two with one of these fighters within, but it won’t be a common occurrence.

PICK: Dos Santos, Decision, Split (thanks Brazilian judges)

Cash Game: N/A - Too close to call

GPP: N/A - Solid chins and intelligent strikers make for a low scoring DFS affair

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Davi Ramos

Vs.

Nick Hein

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

2

Record

14

2

1

1

UFC Record

4

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,500

DK Salary

$7,700

-143

Vegas Odds

119

33%

% Fights to Dec

63%

290

Inside The Distance Prop

689

 

Snapshot:

Here’s another fight that I just don’t like in our DFS world. Yes, that’s like 3 fights in a row where I just don’t like who we must choose from and how it applies to the DK scoring system. Looking at my DraftKings Algorithm that I created, these two fighters rank 16th and 25th out of 26 total fighters, and their Inside the Distance prop odds are ranked 15th and 25th. These 2 rankings alone should push you along to the next fight, and that’s what we’ll do.

Davi Ramos (7-2) is 31 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC with a submission win over Chris Gruetzemacher in his last fight. The Brazilian has a very dangerous ground game and now that he’s committed to MMA he seems to be evolving his entire game.

Hein (14-2, 1 NC) is 34 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Tae Hyun Bang in his last bout. The German is is a grinding-type of fighter who uses his wrestling to win decisions. He has nine wins by decision overall and hasn’t finished a fight in five years. He is also coming off of a 20-month layoff, so his timing and sharpness will not be what we expect out of our rostered fighters.

I think Hein’s last of finishing ability will finally catch up to him here. I just feel like Ramos is the better grappler and, in a grappling-based fight, I see him getting the win, likely by decision since Hein is so tough to finish but I could see Ramos taking his back and choking him out as well. An interesting fight to wee evolve throughout the rounds, and one that I’ll find entertaining, but one that will not be very high scoring from a DraftKings perspective, and these aren’t the type of fights that we are looking to target when considering rosterable fighters. Enjoy the entertainment value as a MMA fan, but don’t let their elementary DFS skills convince you to put them in your rosters!! Move along...nothing to see here!

PICK: Ramos, Sub, 3rd         

Cash Game: N/A – Too close to call

GPP: N/A - Ceiling is pretty low when considering both of their styles and fighting pasts

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

240

Aleksei Oleinik

Vs.

Junior Albini

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

55

11

Record

14

3

4

2

UFC Record

1

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,000

DK Salary

$8,200

125

Vegas Odds

-150

12%

% Fights to Dec

18%

258

Inside The Distance Prop

124

 
 
Snapshot:

Junior Albini (14-3) is 27 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski in his last fight. The Brazilian was riding a 10-fight win streak prior to the loss to Arlovski and was quickly emerging as a solid heavyweight prospect with finishing skills on the feet and on the mat but the loss to Arlovski really exposed his cardio, or shall I say, lack thereof, while also showing to the world how similarly he can look like a grown man-baby with his fighting attire. Seriously, go back and take a look some pictures from that fight and you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about. Albini had his fight shorts tucked in and he looked just like an overgrown baby! He also fought like a man-child that day too, with Arlovski and his experience just being too much for Albini to handle.

Aleksei Oliynyk (52-11, 1 NC) is 40 and he’s 4-2 in the UFC with a TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes in his last fight. The Ukrainian is one of the most dangerous submission artists to ever compete in the heavyweight division as he has won 43 times by tapout in his long MMA career. He has a ton of experience and with 48 career finishes it shows he knows how to finish a fight. Five TKO losses is a bit of a concern but can be somewhat forgiven considering how many fights he’s had.

While Oliynyk’s ground game is really good and could prove to be a 100+ point attribute for him, his chin scares the hell out of me. Albini is 27 years old and is reaching the pinnacle of his fighting age, while Oleinik may be at the end of his rope when it comes to his fighting career. This isn’t a young man’s game, and I think that Albini has the skills to develop into a contender down the road in a very shallow heavyweight division. Add to these factors that he is a Brazilian fighting in front of his home fans, and the odds of him pulling out a victory increase even more. Albini has the 3rd best Inside the Distance prop on the card at +124! Only 18% of Albini’s fights have found their way to the judges’ cards, while only 12% of the Russian’s fights have! All of these stats bode well for Albini winning this one before the final bell rings! I also think that Albini will be low owned, making him even a more attractive play in GPP’s.

PICK: Albini, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Albini (7/10)

GPP: Albini (7.5/10); Olenik (7/10)

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Cezar Ferreira

Vs.

Karl Roberson

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

6

Record

6

0

8

4

UFC Record

1

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

104

Vegas Odds

-128

44%

% Fights to Dec

17%

338

Inside The Distance Prop

130

 

Snapshot:

Karl Roberson (6-0) is 27 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC with a submission win over Darren Stewart in his Octagon debut back in November at UFC Fight Night 120. The New Jersey native has kickboxing experience against the likes of Jerome Le Banner but has turned into a very complete MMA fighter who has a dangerous striking attack and ground game. The 27-year-old striker is a solid athlete who has picked up the MMA game pretty quickly. It’s only his 2nd appearance inside the Octagon, but he comes in as a slight -128 favorite (down to -115 as of Friday afternoon). Roberson’s price tag of $8,600 was a little too high in my opinion, and I think you’re seeing a correction to this with the betting line coming back towards the middle. With that being said, Ferreira has some pretty impressive odds value at -4 now!

Cezar Ferreira (12-6) is 33 and he’s 8-4 in the UFC with a decision win over Nate Marquardt in his last outing. The Brazilian is a well-rounded fighter with very good wrestling and submission skills, but his striking isn’t quite up to par. The biggest problem is his chin though as he’s been finished by strikes three times in the UFC and his chin looks like it will always hold him back from getting to that next level. I like to call him “Trash Chin”, because he really has a serious issue taking a punch, and when he’s standing in front of an established, powerful kickboxer like Karl Roberson, the likelihood of him snoring in the middle of the cage in front of 20.000+ people is pretty good.

This looks like a dangerous matchup for Ferreira as Roberson has serious power and I think he wins this fight by knockout, probably in the first round. I like Roberson in all formats, and I’ll be targeting him throughout my lineups in both Cash and GPP, but the difficult part is that so will everyone else! Just keep in mind that if you have him in your LU’s, then a good amount of the population will too. Roberson should score 100+ pretty easily though, so he most likely will be in the optimal lineup that we all are so desperately looking for.

PICK: Roberson, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Roberson (9/10)

GPP: Roberson (8.5/10) - popularity is holding him back somewhat.

 

Main Card

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Vitor Belfort

Vs.

Lyoto Machida

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

26

13

Record

23

8

15

8

UFC Record

15

8

2

3

Record Last 5

2

3

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

215

Vegas Odds

-269

26%

% Fights to Dec

48%

435

Inside The Distance Prop

145

 
 

Snapshot:

Here we go! The 1st fight in the UFC “Masters Division”, as 39 Vitor Belfort takes on 41 year old Lyoto Machida! We may joke about these guys being “over the hill” and needing a walker to get to the cage, but in all honesty, these two savages could easily kick the shit out of us, and 99.9% of all humans on this planet!

Machida (23-8) is 39 and he’s 15-8 in the UFC with a decision win over Eryk Anders in his last fight. The Brazilian is one of the greatest strikers the sport of MMA has ever seen and was once a great champion, but he has really tailed off in recent years. Prior to the upset over Anders he had lost three-straight fights by stoppage and failed a drug test. But beating a young gun like Anders shows he does have a little gas left in the tank. Machida is one of the smartest, most technical fighters that has ever stepped into the storied UFC Octagon, and this intelligence should allow him to continue to compete at this level for a few more years.

Belfort (26-13, 1 NC) is 41 and he’s 15-9, 1 NC in the UFC with a decision win over Nate Marquardt in his last outing. The Brazilian is one of the greatest knockout artists the sport has ever seen but before beating Marquardt had been knocked out in three-straight fights and four of fight overall. Belfort is a guy who is dangerous in the first five minutes of a fight but after that tends to wilt and fade. He was on an amazing late career resurgence before the UFC introduced USADA level testing to all combatants - in and out of competition. Once they eliminated the use of Human Growth Hormone (HGH) you saw Belfort decline significantly and rapidly, going from a roided up, muscle-bound machine of destruction to a more normal looking, late 30’s warrior who had some serious miles on his body. If you pull up photos of him before and after the ban of HGH, you’ll see a significant change in the body type that he brought into the cage each fight. If you ask Michael Bisping he’ll say that Belfort and his HGH high kick cost him a fully-functional right eye. Regardless, Belfort still has a long and storied history in the sport, and he’ll inevitably go down as one of the greatest of all time, regardless of weight class! Belfort says that this will be his last fight, and it’s fitting to happen in front of his home country, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a BIG payday from Bellator for one last battle. Only time will tell.

Both guys will eventually be in the UFC Hall of Fame, but at this point in their respective careers, I think that Machida has more left to give. Belfort coming off of HGH was a HUGE factor in his quick decline in the sport, whereas Machida never seemed to have been bulked up like Belfort was, making his decline due to age a more natural, slower one. When it’s all said and done, I think that Machida will have his hand raised in the center of the cage, and Belfort will take his gloves off and leave them in the center of the Octagon - a fitting departure in front of his home country fans for one of the sports all-time greats! I don’t necessarily like this fight in any DFS format though, as they both throw at a pretty low rate. I will have some exposure to Belfort though, as I think he has the potential to end this one quickly and violently early on, and at a salary of $7,300, this would be a great win! I do see Belfort as a Live Dog, but it’s a long shot!

PICK: Machida, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Machida (7.5/10)

GPP: Machida (7/10); Belfort (6.5/10)           

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

John Lineker

Vs.

Brian Kelleher

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

29

8

Record

19

8

11

3

UFC Record

3

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-251

Vegas Odds

202

46%

% Fights to Dec

26%

245

Inside The Distance Prop

609

 
 

Snapshot:

John Lineker (30-8) is 27 and he’s 11-3 in the UFC with a decision win over Marlon Vera in his last fight. The Brazilian is one of the most powerful strikers in the lower weight classes and is known for putting on exciting fights for the fans. He has an iron chin and massive power in his fists and is a lot of fun to watch. His takedown defense can be a problem against elite wrestlers but overall he’s a stud in the bantamweight division.

Kelleher (19-8) is 31 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Renan Barao in his last fight. The American is a very game fighter who is always willing to stand in the pocket and trade with his opponents. Historically submissions have been a problem for him with five tapout losses, but his 15 stoppage wins in the bantamweight division prove he can hold his own against anyone.

I think this is going to be a “Fight of the Night”-type of exciting bout and while I have been impressed with Kelleher so far, I have to go with Lineker here. I just feel like his striking is at a higher level and he has shown no signs of wear with his chin, so I think he withstands Kelleher’s best shots and takes home a decision. Both of these guys throw some serious volume, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the losing fighter throws up 50+ points with the winning fighter easily at 100+! I’ll have exposure to both of these guys, as Kelleher has an outside shot at winning this one, and with a $7,200 price tag he would be a serious LIVE DOG that could pay off huge! Lineker needs to finish in order to pay off his $9k salary, and I think he has a very good chance at winning this one before the final bell rings.

PICK: Lineker, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Lineker (7.5/10)

GPP: Lineker (8.5/10); Kelleher (7.5/10)

                                                           

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Mackenzie Dern

Vs.

Amanda Cooper

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

6

0

Record

3

3

1

0

UFC Record

2

2

5

0

Record Last 5

2

3

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-254

Vegas Odds

204

50%

% Fights to Dec

17%

133

Inside The Distance Prop

425

 

Snapshot:

The uber-hyped Mackenzie Dern is entering the UFC Octagon for only her 2nd time, and a MMA cage for only the 7th time overall, as she takes on the easy on the eyes Amanda Cooper. The attractiveness of both of these fighters was going to be the headline of this contest, but Dern made sure that wasn’t going to be the case, as she weighed in 7 pounds over the 115-pound weight limit! 7 pounds! Yes, 7!!! That isn’t even close, and really is an embarrassment to the sport!

Dern (6-0) is 25 and she’s 1-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Ashley Yoder in her Octagon debut. The American comes from a grappling background and has excellent submission skills. Her striking is pretty gross, and she really doesn’t have any wrestling to fall back on either. Yes, she has probably some of the best submission skills in all of WMMA, but those skills are useless if you can’t get the fight to the ground, and this is the issue that she will run into in this one.

Amanda Cooper (3-3) is 26 and she’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American is coming off of a TKO win over Angela Magana where she looked really good but then again Magana is not a good fighter. All three of Cooper’s losses are by submission and that’s a big concern going forward.

I think Dern is an excellent prospect who will only continue to get better. Her ground game is already elite in the women’s divisions and her striking is going to improve. Dern needs to go to a camp that focuses on striking, and just concentrate on that for the next few years. If Cooper can keep the fight upright, then I think she’ll have a very good chance at winning this fight, but on the flip side, if Dern can get this fight to the ground even once, then there is a good chance that she’ll lock up a submission with how porous Cooper’s ground game is.

Dern being 7 pounds over the weight limit is a concern, and honestly, this is pushing me into the corner of Cooper. For $7,100 I think Cooper is a Live Dog that could greatly apy off for us if she stuff’s Dern’s TD attempts. I’ll be avoiding Dern for the most part, but I’ll have a few large GPP’s with Dern mixed in. Cooper is definitely my horse in this one though.

PICK: Cooper, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Cooper (7.5/10)

GPP: Cooper (8.5/10); Dern (7/10)

;

Fight #:

12

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Jacare Souza

Vs.

Kelvin Gastelum

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

5

Record

14

3

8

2

UFC Record

9

3

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-147

Vegas Odds

122

20%

% Fights to Dec

35%

150

Inside The Distance Prop

197

 

Snapshot:

An awesome matchup in the co-main event of the evening, as Brazil's own Jacare Souza takes on Kings MMA prospect, Kelvin Gastelum in this Middleweight bout. In my opinion, this is the best fight on the card, and really could go either way! Souza (25-5, 1 NC) is 38 and he’s 8-2 in the UFC with a TKO win over Derek Brunson in his last fight. The Brazilian is an excellent fighter who has exceptional submission skills, solid wrestling and very dangerous striking. He’s extremely well-rounded with 21 career finishes while taking on some of the best competition the sport has to offer! It’s crazy that he has never gotten a title shot in the UFC! Even though he’s 38 he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down yet. Yes, he has a TKO loss to Robert Whittaker a year ago, but Whittaker has proven to be an absolute stud, so there is no shame in that for Souza.

Gastelum (14-3, 1 NC) is 26 and he’s 9-3, 1 NC in the UFC with a KO win over Michael Bisping in his last fight. The American is a former TUF winner and has gone on to have an excellent career so far in the UFC. Since moving up to middleweight he’s 2-1, 1 NC with both his wins coming by knockout and his No Contest being a KO win over Vitor Belfort that was overturned due to testing positive for marijuana. His submission loss to Chris Weidman exposed his size as a middleweight but he did catch Weidman early in that fight on the feet and almost finished him. Gastelum has always had issues cutting weight down to Welterweight (170 lbs), so the UFC essentially has forced him to fight at 180. This isn’t the ideal weight class, as he has been exposed as the smaller fighter in a few of his 180-pound contests, but if you can’t make 170 cleanly, you really don’t have anything to complain about.

I believe Gastelum’s combination of speed and power on the feet are going to get him the win here. He’s 12 years younger and looked amazing in his last fight against Bisping and I think he’s going to keep moving up the middleweight ladder with a huge win over Souza at UFC 224. His price tag of $7,800 is fairly attractive to me, as I think he wins this one outright. He’s a LIVE DOG that I’ll have plenty of exposure to in all formats! My only concern is if this fight goes to a decision, will the Brazilian judges truly by unbiased in their decision making? It’s a risk, so I’ll have a few GPP LU’s with Souza mixed in as well.

PICK: Gastelum, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Gastelum (7/10)

GPP: Gastelum (8/10); Souza (7/10)

 

Fight #:

13

5 Rounds

Weight:

135

Amanda Nunes

Vs.

Raquel Pennington

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

15

4

Record

9

5

8

1

UFC Record

6

2

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,500

DK Salary

$6,700

-980

Vegas Odds

628

16%

% Fights to Dec

64%

-175

Inside The Distance Prop

1231

 

Snapshot:

On to the main event of the evening! Amanda Nunes takes her vicious striking game into a battle in front of her hometown fans that will surely bring some fireworks to the arena. Nunes (15-4) is 29 and she’s 8-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian is currently on a six-fight win streak with victories over the likes of Ronda Rousey, Valentina Shevchenko (twice) and Miesha Tate. She is one of the most dangerous female fighters to ever compete in the sport with a vicious striking attack to go along with a dominant ground game. Her one flaw earlier in her career was her cardio, which was exposed in her loss to Cat Zingano, but she seems to have cleaned up that part of her game and looks unstoppable right now.

Pennington (9-5) is 29 and she’s 6-2 in the UFC. The American is on a four-fight wins streak with a victory over Tate in her last fight. However, she has not competed in almost two years. She’s a solid overall fighter with a volume-based striking attack and decent wrestling skills to go along with a nice submission game on the floor. But she lacks finishing power on the feet and it can hurt her against better strikers.

Though Pennington is durable, I believe Nunes is going to be way too dominant with her striking in this fight. Nunes brings a -980 line into this contest, which is insane, so the debate really isn’t over who is going to win this fight, but more so around their salaries and where we can fit Nunes into our LU’s. I’ll have some exposure to Nunes in Cash and GPP’s, but she will be very popular, and if she doesn’t finish this fight within the first 5 minutes, then I don’t think she’ll pay off her hefty $9,500 price tag. I think there are better high-end options on the card to roster than Nunes at $9,500, and you never know….Pennington just needs to land that one clean shot, and BOOM…...she ruins your whole DFS night! I’d rather look elsewhere for a high-priced fighter. Good luck!

PICK: Nunes, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Nunes (8/10)

GPP: Nunes (7.5/10); Pennington (6.5/10)

 

Optimal Lineups

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Perez

$9,200

2

Lineker

$9,000

3

Roberson

$8,600

4

Albini

$8,200

5

Gastelum

$7,800

6

Cooper

$7,100

 

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Roberson

$8,600

2

Nunes

$9,500

3

Cooper

$7,100

4

Gastelum

$7,800

5

Perez

$9,200

6

Kelleher

$7,200