MMA DFS Playbook: UFC on Fox 27 - Jacare vs. Brunson 2

The UFC comes strolling into Charlotte this weekend with it’s 27th installment on big boy FOX, headed by a main event rematch of Jacare Souza vs. Derek Brunson. This is a solid card, but has a 1 hour stretch in the middle with 3 awful female fights that I suggest you make alternate plans for because you will not be able to watch them!

There are 2 absolute studs at the top of heap for this card, and you could argue for bothe being equal, but I see more value in one than the other. If you want to roster both of these studs, then you’ll have to make some sacrifices on the lower end of your roster. There are 3-4 Live Dogs that I see some value in, and in order to go 6 for 6 and win some GPP’s, we’ll have to get lucky and hit on a few that most likely shouldn’t some to fruition.

I really like the Cash lineup that I’ve put together, and I have a special place in my heart for one of my GPP lineups as well. You can determine which one that is at the bottom of this article.

We’ve been on a roll lately, and cashing in pretty much every event that we’ve been ‘capping. We haven’t hit it BIG yet this year and won a GPP, but we’ve been in the top 5% a few times, and recently our Cash LU’s have been on point, and many of the GPP targets that I have backed have been kicking ass. Keep in mind, don’t just focus on the optimal lineups at the bottom of the article. These are there as examples as to what you can do with your own brain power and our in-depth insight. I would highly suggest that you make a listing of my fighter rankings for both Cash and GPP’s as you read through the fight by fight previews. Once you’ve read the entire article, and you have each ranked fighter listed, then start working your way through the ranked fighters, with your own analysis considered, and start putting Cash and GPP LU’s together based on those rankings. This will help considerable, as you should be funneling in some of the ranked fighters I have within my write-ups, and not just using the fighters at the end of my articles within the optimal lineups. With that being said….LETS MAKE IT RAIN…….AGAIN!!!

Undercard

The first fight of the night is a short notice (one week) featherweight bout that is intriguing on paper, but highly questionable from a DFS perspective. Both fighters are making their UFC debut….sort of. Arnett ended up losing his August fight in front of ‘The Dana‘ in Las Vegas under Mr. White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Arnett ended up losing a unanimous decision to Brandon Davis who fought last week, in a fight that was one of the best that the reality show has produced yet! His effort in that fight caused Dana to keep an eye on him, and when a late notice opportunity arose such as this at Featherweight, Dana knew who to call, or text, or DM, or swipe right, or whatever the kids are doing nowadays. Arnett was already training for a fight next month in a regional promotion, so he may not be in “peak” condition, but he isn’t far off. “The Golden Boy” comes in as a +180 dog, carrying a mid-range $7,900 price tag on DraftKings.

Cory Sandhagen is a solid -220 as of Friday night, and carries an underpriced $8,300 salary. Sandhagen only fought 9 days ago, but it was a relatively easy victory with little to no damage incurred. You have to assume he still is in good shape, and will be able to handle a grinding fight that enters the later rounds. Sandhagen also comes from a high level (no pun intended) fight camp in Elevation Fight Team out of Denver, Colorado, so you know his training will be on point when he’s surrounded by savages in one of the best fight camps in the middle of the country!

Sandhagen is a fluid, dangerous striker who has the finishing ability that Arnett does not, especially on the feet. He will have the advantage in the striking game, and he’ll also have the advantage when it comes to in-cage athleticism. Takedowns, scrambles, and all-around quickness will show Sandhagen with a Green Checkmark in all categories and not a Red “X”.

From a DFS perspective you should have Sandhagen targeted in all formats. He has the 5th highest betting odds on the card, while only having the 11th highest DK salary. This is a -6 Rank Value, which does happen very often - usually only when DraftKings decides to release salaries before Vegas releases their odds. This one is even more interesting because of how short notice the fight is. The -6 Rank Value is something we can’t ignore, but anyone else doing their homework will see this as well, making Sandhagen a very popular fighter on the night, so keep that in mind when you are rostering him in multi-entry GPP’s. 

PICK: Sandhagen, Decision, Unanimous (or 2nd or 3rd TKO - depending on gas tanks)                                    

Cash Game: Sandhagen (9/10): I like his value, odds of victory, and overall game, but he will be highly owned at the mid-range price of $8,300.

GPP: Sandhagen (8.5/10): A misprice on DK, or is Arnett better than many think? He will be highly owned, so proceed with caution if you are entering single entry GPP’s. If you are throwing together multiple lineups in a GPP, then don’t be afraid to roster him in a good amount of your LU’s.

The uber-hyped, Niko Price, likes to stay active as he recently lost by submission to Vicente Luque back at the end of October, and had a very impressive win over Alan Jouban back in August of this year. Price gets a lot of hype from the UFC fan base and the organization in general. He has the look, is a flashy, effective striker that can viciously KO people, has a legit team behind him in ATT, and on top of that his 28 and starting to get close to his prime fighting age. The UFC is a business, and they need to constantly be looking for the next “IT”, and when you have someone with the look, age, pedigree, and potential of Price, you have to roll the dice, and hope that it works out! This can also let a lot of people down though, and this is kind of what happened with the lose to Luque. The loss may also be a good thing for Price though, as many of these uber-hyped young fighters don’t know what it feels like to lose in front of these big audiences, expensive cameras, and large crowds. The good thing with Price’s loss is that he has ATT behind him, and often times if you have an upper-echelon camp supporting you, these first time losing fighters can use the experience as a positive for them moving forward, allowing them to grow from the loss, and coming out smelling like roses on the other end.

Sullivan is 8 years older than Price, coming in at the ripe old age of 36! He hasn’t fought in 2 years due to a run-in with USADA, and when you have a 36 year old fighter who has not been active, and is coming off a serious amount of time away from the sport, it really concerns me, as these vets don’t typically bounce right back and perform like they did two years previously. Sullivan has the experience, but the physical absenteeism at this age and at this level of the sport is not a good thing. The down time will not benefit him by allowing his body to recover and come back and perform at the top of his game. Sadly enough, Sullivan’s peak has passed him by, and it may have been during his 2 years away, or it could have been the few years prior to the suspension. Regardless of when it was, this is a beautiful matchup for Price to come in, use his speed, power, and age advantages, and really take it to the Kurt Pellegrino MMA disciple.

Price’s $9,000 price tag is a little steep for my liking, as it may be difficult for him to pay this back if Sullivan gets folded like a lawn chair within the first two minutes. If Price can capture a few knockdowns before finally putting away Sullivan, than he has a good chance of getting 110+ DK points, but without at least 1 or 2 knockdowns, I find it hard to believe that Price will be able to pay off his salary. Price will come out on top, but he has proven to be inconsistent throughout the years, so he’s a gamble if you want to roster, really in any format, but I do like him more in Cash than I do GPP’s.

PICK: Price, KO, 1st                        

Cash Game: Price (7/10): You’ll have to pay for him, but he has a high floor and a high ceiling, but a lot of inconsistency within.

GPP: Price (7/10): He’ll have a tough time paying off his salary knowing his fighting style, and his inconsistency make it tough to put much faith in in him as well. It’s a gamble, but that’s why we do it…...right?

Snapshot:

Can we get any more down the middle than this fight? Ahh…...mathematically…..no. Vinc Pichel and Joaquim Silva are both -110 and $8,100, so something has to give! Vinc Pichel is coming off an impressive KO victory over Damien Brown back in June. This was his first fight in over 3 years due to a slew of injuries. Pichel has a lot of question marks that sill loom over his career, as Brown really isn’t an elite level fighter that would give him much trouble, and with Pichel now being 35 years old, the real question becomes - “what does father time have in store for him?”

Silva is a 28 year old Brazilian who is a solid all-around fighter, but doesn’t excel in any one area. He’s a perfect 10-0 in his professional MMA career with 5 KO/TKO’s, 3 Submissions, and 2 Decisions. He performs well in scrambles, and does a very good job of not allowing his opponent of dictating where the fights going to take place. He’ll often find himself getting taken down by his foe, but will find a way to get back to his feet and keep the fight in a more neutral position. This is great when it comes to the judges perception of the fight, and it’s also great for the DK scoring potential of his opponent, and this plays perfectly into the fighting style of Vinc Pichel.

Pichel averages an astounding 6.69 Takedowns per 15 minutes, and we both know that this is a great way to rack up some serious DK points! If Pichel can secure the takedowns like he has in his previous fights, advance a few positions, and then Silva can work his way back to his feet and have Pichel get him back to the ground, then we have a killer recipe for a 120+ point night for Pichel! I’m talking award winning chili recipe, not some middle of the road “thanks for participating” type of chili recipe! This is a big “IF”, but it make for probably the highest ceiling on the card out of any fighter, and this is someone that we want to roll the dice with, especially when they are priced in the mid-range at $8,100.

I will definitely have plenty of exposure to Pichel in my GPP lineups, but keep in mind, he’s only fought once in over 4 years, so these stats that we are focusing on may be obsolete, and his game may have changed over the years as he’s spent plenty of time on the couch watch The Ultimate Fighter. Regardless of the risk, the style is here, the stats support the style, and the Brazilian has the skills and will to play into Pichel’s game and allow him to rack up the points that we are looking for in a 1st or 2nd position scorer in our GPP LU’s. A gamble, but a gamble with some serious upside!

I will also be throwing a few units on Pichel from a wagering perspective (only in legal territories that is), as Pichel is better in almost every facet of the MMA game.

PICK: Pichel, Decision, Unanimous                     

Cash Game: Pichel (7.5/10): I like his upside, but he also has a low floor with all the question marks surrounding his recent fighting past.

GPP: Pichel (9/10): Not a guarantee of victory here, especially with the fact he has only fought once in over 4 years, but his ceiling is stupid high, and we like this in GPP’s. Tough to tell what his ownership levels will be though.

Kish is 29 and is 2-1 in her UFC career, while the South Korean Kim is also 29 years old and is 0-1 in the UFC. Kish is probably best known for shitting her fight shorts in the cage her last time out, but she tool the shitting incident in stride, and had a good laugh at herself! Kish has a gas tank that never empties (but her ass does empty), and her aggressive style (aggressive with her sphincter as well) can sometimes put her in positions (not on the toilet, which isn’t good) that are not favorable from a judges’ perspective (or really anyone within 10 feet of the cage, because it stinks and can get messy). Ok, enough with the gross play on words having to do with Kish’s bowel problems.

I like Kish to win this fight, and have her way, but I’m not loving Kish at the price of $9,200. Her output is pretty good, but her game is very unrefined and can often lead to her in compromising positions. I don’t trust Kish at this salary range. If she was in the $8,400 - $8,800, then I’d consider her for some action, but not at $9,200. It’s just too much to expect from a fighter who has only showed us that she can score 74 points on DK when winning in the UFC. The upside with Kish just isn’t there, at least not for this salary.

Kim isn’t a bad Live Dog play, and I may have a few rosters with her peppered in, as she’ll save us a serious amount of cap space! Kim isn’t a bad all-around fighter, but I think Kish’s forward pressure, striking variety and volume, and ability to over power her South Korean counterpart, gives her the ultimate edge here, and should allow her to rack up 75 - 85 DK points in a Decision victory. Not enough for me to have any interest. I also think the risk isn’t worth rostering her in my Cash LU’s either. If anything, I’ll probably have some shares of Kim to save some cap space, and maybe a GPP roster or 2 with Kish involved, because you never know.

PICK: Kish, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Kish (7/10): I think she wins, but it’s quite a bit of money, but a safe play.

GPP: Kish (6.5/10): Her ceiling is too low for a $9,200 price tag.                                    

          Kim (7/10): I would rather roll the dice with Kim, save some cap, and possibly pull a win out of a clean butt!

The 2nd of 3 women’s fights in a row on this card. Interesting approach by the UFC, and maybe a good opportunity to go drop a deuce, make a run to the packy, or have a safety meeting with your buddies in the garage, and check the tire pressure on all of your vehicles, including your riding lawn mower. I will also take the opportunity to do that here in this article, as I am going to save your eyes from reading useless banter on a fight that we really shouldn’t be considering if we like our hard earned money to stay in our own accounts.

Both Markos and Lima are very similar fighters in one very important way; both have incredibly low ceilings when it comes to DraftKings scoring. Exactly the opposite of what we want on our rosters. Markos has a better boxing game than Lima, but has many holes in her defensive striking game. You would think that this may provide a big opportunity for her opponent to land strikes at will and rack up some serious DFS points, but when this opponent is Juliana Lima who only lands at a measly 2.08 Strikes per Minute (SLpM) - the worst on the card, then the prospect of rostering Markos’ opponent gets thrown out the window.

Neither fighter excites me in either format, and there are better opportunities to roster fighters who have a higher upside, better all-around skills, for the same or less cost. Grab a beer and I’ll meet you back here after this one.

PICK: Markos, Boring Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Ok, we have finally reached the end of the women’s fight parade on UFC on FOX 27. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for women fighting in the UFC regardless of what Dana said back in the day, and I’ve seen some pretty awesome women’s fights over the past 4+ years, but here’s a little piece of advice for the new UFC brass; if you are looking to convince skeptics of women’s MMA and its place in the spotlight, this is not the way to try to persuade a fence-sitter that this gender’s fights are just as exciting as the originating gender’s.

Justin Kish vs. Ji Yeon Kim, Randa Markos vs. Juliana Lima, and Katlyn Chookagian vs. Mara Romero Borella is not a lineup that I’d call “show-stopping” by any means, and when you stack them back to back to back in the middle of a card, you are creating a vortex of boring, shitty decisions for a solid hour right in the middle of your card that will eventually transfer over to big boy FOX! Not a solid game plan! Poor FIGHT IQ, as I’d say!

Again, move on and save your cap space for better options.

So I have a pretty intense Excel tool that I use for each UFC card. I created it over the course of 2-3 years, and I still am updating and changing it as time goes on. It’s been something that kind of has been evolving as the DK scoring formula has changed, more data has become available to us, and specific styles and matchups have allowed us to target specific fighters that should give us an advantage over the majority of the DFS MMA players that we take on each card. This tool now has become 10 sheets that have different topics of data included within, and they all feed off of each other through Macro formulas. I’ve also created a pretty in-depth algorithm that takes into account 10-12 different stats, past performances, output, defense, tendencies, and other aspects of the fight game that have to deal with the DK scoring system and weight them appropriately. This algorithm is by no means “perfect”, and it’s effectiveness and accuracy is still a BIG question mark, as there really isn’t enough concrete data to determine if it’s accurate, or if certain factors need to be weighted differently, so take this next bit of info and opinion with a grain of SALT!

Take a look at the chart below. Yes, I know - there is one fight missing (the very late added Sandhagen/Arnett), but this is not a big deal with what I’m trying to show you. So the 11 remaining fights are listed below with the last up top and in chronological order. Without including the aforementioned late fight replacement, the 3 women’s fights are listed below as numbers 3, 4, and 5. The “Weighted Point Total” is the biggest, and main algorithm that I created, use, and put the most faith in at a high level. It takes into account odds (to win, Inside the Distance, Win in the 1st Rnd), DK Salary, avg salary, outputs/volumes, defensive stats/volume, etc…and a bunch of factors. I do not bet, or roster fighters using the WPT and the WPT only! This is one small factor in a much larger process.

Anyway, as you can see, the WPT gives you an idea of what the ceiling is for these particular fighters, and anyone highlighted in Green under the Weighted Points Total is good, and anyone highlighted in RED should be euthanized from a DFS perspective….at least for this event.The 6 female fighters in fights 3-5 have the two worst, and three of the four worst WPT ranks on the card. The other three fighters come in comically respectable at 16th, 13th, and 11th! BottomLine: these 3 fights are dumpster fires waiting to happen. Again, my algorithm doesn’t mean shit, but my opinion seems to align with the numbers when it comes to this situation. Take it for what it’s worth.

PICK: Chookagian, Boring Point Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

26-year-old Mirsad Bektic is 4-1 in the UFC and is be groomed to be a potential future champion. The American Top Team prospect is a well-rounded fighter who is the biggest favorite on the card at -600 and carries a $9,400 salary! Bektic also has a -135 Inside the Distance prop, which is best on the card as well.

Godofredo Pepey is a 10 fight UFC vet that comes in as a big underdog, but a LIVE one at that. He has some crazy, unpredictable striking habits that could catch someone if they aren’t prepared for his style. Bektic will know exactly what to watch for, and combine that with his already elite level striking defense, only taking on 1.17 SApM, which is best on the card. Bektic is stronger, faster, more athletic, and has many more paths to victory than what Pepey does (basically one path = crazy, spinning back strike of some sort), so I don’t see any questions here. Bektic will rack up some serious DraftKings points, so long as Pepey can survive the Bosnian-American long enough for him to accumulate some points before wilting to Bektic’s power and aggressive onslaught!

Is it worth paying for Bektic at $9,400? It’s a tough call, but I think he is worth it if you can afford it. I’m not worried about him not paying off his salary, as the matchup, his style, and everything else lines up perfectly for a 120+ night. If that’s the case, GPP winning lineups will be littered with Mirsad Bektic! I really like Bektic in my Cash LU, but you need to plan accordingly. I also like him in GPP’s, but we’ll need to roster one of the low end fighters on the card in order to make it work.

PICK: Bektic, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Bektic (10/10): Love the chances of victory, and his ceiling is the highest on the card most likely.

GPP: Bektic (8.5/10): His salary limits his availability for us, and I also think he’ll be popular.

The maine event of the FS1 Prelims (that’s weird to say) pits two aging vets of the UFC Octagon, as 31 year old Bobby “King” Green brings his 23-8-1 professional MMA record (4-3 in the UFC) into his battle with 29 year old Erik “The Phoenix” Kock and his 15-5 pro MMA record (4-4 UFC). These may only be 31 and 29 years old respectively, but they have some serious, high-level MMA mileage on their bodies. Do not underestimate the fight mileage of a 30 year old fighter racking up 10 wins on the regional scene before breaking into the UFC (Bellator, PFL, Legacy, CES, etc…), versus the fight mileage the likes of Erik Koch or Bobby Green who have fought most of their young careers at the highest level. You were down much quicker when battling the best in the world year in and year out versus someone making quick work of regional journeymen.

Both Green and Koch, not too long ago, were at the upper-echelon of the Lightweight division. Oh how times have changed. They now find themselves battling for their UFC lives in a fight that could very easily see the loser pack his bags. Both of their saving graces is that they like to throw down and have exciting fights. Green last time out was in one of the best fights of 2017 against Lando Vannata. He’ll keep getting chances if he can put up these types of fights.

From a DFS perspective there definitely is some intrigue here, but there are so many question marks surrounding both of these guys that it makes it tough to trust either one of these guys when the shit hits the fan! I like Green’s upside, as he has a solid wrestling game that could play favorably with the DK scoring system. Koch doesn’t have great TD defense, and when he starts to gas and gets taken down to his back, he’ll often find a way out of the fight, or will get thoroughly dominated. This scares me, and I most likely won’t have much of Koch due to this.

The stare down these guys had Friday afternoon was great, and you can tell they want to rip each other’s heads off! Koch is a talented striker, but his health issues, inconsistent performances, and general uncertainty concern me. Bobby Green seems focused and in shape, and looking at his ranks, he stands in 6th from an odds perspective at -162. He’s ranked 9th from a DK salary perspective, giving Green a -3 Rank Value, which isn’t too shabby. I like Green here, but we’ll need an almost flawless performance from him in order to pay back his $8,500 salary. I’ll most likely avoid from a Cash perspective due to the overall uncertainty and inconsistency with both fighters, but I’ll have a solid share of Green in GPP’s.

PICK: Green, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Green (8/10): His wrestling game could see plenty of TD’s, ADV, and RVRS. Mix in some strikes, and stop him late in the 1st, and we’re looking golden!          

          Koch (7/10): He’s screwed me too many times in DFS to have faith in him, but I may have 1 or 2 rosters with Kock out of a 10-20 roster lineup.

Main Card

29-year-old Drew Dober is 4-4 in the UFC, but he is 3-1 in his last 4, not coincidentally since he joined the Elevation Fight Team. Dober is a kickboxer at heart, but he has improved his ground skills and his MMA style striking game since changing camps. He really has improved his game, but he really hasn’t been tested against upper level competition yet. Camacho is a venture in that direction, so it should be an interesting fight. Dober has a solid chin, but is defense in general is pretty weak, and I’ve seen his chin get tested more often recently, as he’s realized that he needs to engage and take one in order to deliver one. Dober has become more comfortable with standing in the pocket and trading, but I don’t think that’s a good idea with someone like Frank “The Crank” Camacho, whos 15 of his 21 wins have come by the way of KO or TKO!

Camacho comes in as a +143 underdog with a surprisingly low $7,300 salary! Yes, Dober has made drastic improvements since his camp change, but his ceiling is naturally low due to his limited power and athletic ability. He now goes up a weight class, and these factor become even more pronounced. Camacho brings an energy that few do to the UFC cage, and his offensive pressure can be overwhelming, and will wear on his opponents by the 2nd and 3rd round.

Both of these fighters are high volume, aggressive fighters that have a style that works best once their opposition starts to fold. This will be like fighting fire with fire! There styles are great for DraftKings, so I’ll definitely have exposure to this fight! I will most likely lean more on Camacho for a few big reasons. For one, he brings in discount priced $7,300 salary, which is way too low in my opinion! Two, he sports an aggressive, in your face style that is predicated on a high volume of strikes being thrown. Three, Camacho is focused on breaking his foe’s will in the 2nd and 3rd rounds - a good sign of DK points being scored.

These few factors point me in Camacho’s direction. For the stupidly low price of $7,300, it’s well worth the gamble! Will he win, not sure, but I do think the fight is closer than the current pricing difference, and the current betting lines as well, so I’ll throw a 2 unit bet on Comacho as well. I’ll have a small exposure to Dober in GPP’s, but I’ll be heavily invested in Camacho is most formats.

PICK: Camacho, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Camacho (8/10): Close fight, but the salary savings allows us to roster other top tier talent (Bektic?).

GPP: Camacho (9/10): Cheap salary, and Live Dog - that’s all I needed to hear.   

          Dober (6.5/10): I’ll have a roster or 2 with Dobe’s in it, but I don’t love his style.

Will keep this one pretty quick and simple, as this is a pretty cut and dried fight in my eyes. Gregor Gillespie is the BEST DFS play on the card! Period. He has the perfect game for DFS! It’s like he was created by the DFS gods to be rostered by us…..in all formats. I’d just like to take the time to thank the DFS gods for Gregor, as I will have him rostered in all formats Saturday night!

It’s tough, because you really need to pick between Gillespie and Bektic, and when putting my feet to the fire, I’d rather have Gillespie in my corner (or on my roster). He’s an incredible wrestler, and he will get takedown after takedown, and will advance at will. Bektic has a small chance of losing to Pepey, and Pepey’s defense may make it more difficult for Bektic than Rinaldi will for Gillespie. Usually with these type of odds and salary you’d be concerned of the fight ending too quickly, and the higher priced fighter not paying off his stupidly high salary, but I’m not concerned with too quick of a fight with this matchup. Rinaldi is tough, and Gillespie’s style sets up for a brutal 3-5 minutes with takedowns, advances, and heavy ground and pound.

If you can roster Gillespie - do it! If you have to choose between Bektic and Gillespie, go with the G man! Simple as that.

PICK: Gillespie, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Gillespie (10/10)

GPP: Gillespie (9.5/10)                  

Snapshot:

The 2nd to last fight of the night has 31 year old Dennis Bermudez, who’s 9-5 in the UFC, taking on 27 year old Andre “Touchy” Fili who is 5-4 in the UFC. This is a very solid matchup that should be a highly contested affair. This will be a tough bout to call, and see this one going to the judges’ scorecards. Both fighters have over a +300 Inside the Distance Prop, and both have a pretty high percentage of fights that have gone to a decision.

There are too many better fights to target on this card than to waste our time on this one. Bermudez will eventually get the takedowns the he needs, and will play the positional game while getting in some GNP. Fili will eventually find his way back to the feet, and will hold his own from a boxing perspective. When it’s all said and done, Bermudez will win a pretty lackluster affair that doesn’t score very well in DraftKings. I’ll have very little of this fight, if any at all.

PICK: Bermudez, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:

On to the main event, where as of Friday this one was a Pick ‘Em! Brunson has a $7,800 DK salary, so there is definitely some value there now with the line shifting to a Pick Em. Jacare sports an $8,400 salary, decreasing his value as the line levels out. This is a rematch from 2012 when Jacare KO’ed Brunson :41 into the 1st round. Brunson is a different fighter now, and is arguably at his peak, whereas, Jacare is on the downside of his career and will have a very difficult time getting this fight to the ground, as Brunson has never been taken down inside of the UFC cage!

As the line continues to move, Brunson becomes more and more of an attractive play. I don’t think this one will go the distance. This will come down to who has the better cardio and wants to be in the cage come the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds. Jacare is 38 years old, while Brunson is 34. This might not seem like a big deal, but Brunson has been performing at the top of his game for a few years, and he has much less mileage on his body, then the career martial artist, Jacare Souza, does. Jacare has a few years left at best, and does he still have the drive to win a war that gets settled in deep waters? I don’t think so. Brunson knows that he still has one more shot to make a run, and this will carry him through to victory. He’ll break Jacare’s will in the 3rd, and will win by TKO in the 4th.

Brunson is worth targeting in all formats, especially GPP’s! I would have priced these guys both at $8,100, and let the fans determine who the favorite should be, but DK has done us a favor by giving us a $600 cushion with Brunson! I’ll save the salary and have some solid exposure to Brunson. I will most likely avoid Jacare almost entirely. His ship has sailed. Hopefully he can get a lift out to it with a dingy or a jetski or something.

PICK: Brunson, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Brunson (8/10)

GPP: Brunson (7.5/10)

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1