MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night St. Louis - Choi vs Stephens

UFC Fight Night St. Louis

The first event of 2018 brings the traveling circus of blood to St. Louis where Dooho Choi will take on Jeremy Stephens in an electric main event! The co-main event was scheduled to be Uriah Hall taking on Vitor Belfort in his retirement fight, but this fight has been scrapped due to Hall's issues cutting weight, and having to go to the hospital. He was quoted as saying, “My body just shut down.” Hopefully Belfort will be able to find another fight soon, and end his amazing UFC career in style, like he deserves.

With that being said, this card has dropped from 13 fights to 11 in a matter of days, so we needed to get a little creative when putting together our rosters. I didn’t see too much difference between Cash and GPP lineups for this card, and there seems to be a lot of options that you can bring to the table that I feel are viable. Let’s now get into the fight by fight breakdown, and see what we can do from a lineup construction perspective!

Undercard

Snapshot:

Mads Brunell is 8-2 with an 0-1 record in the UFC after losing a hard fought submission to Michel Prazeres in his UFC debut, and those of you who have seen Prazeres fight, that isn’t a loss to be ashamed about. It was an awful stylistic matchup for Brunell, but you gotta take what you can get when you are trying to break into the UFC for the first time.

Santiago is 28 years old and is 21-10 in his pro MMA career and his only fight under the bright lights of the UFC saw him lose to blue-chip prospect, Zabit Magomedsharipov, on short notice back in September.

Santiago is the much crisper striker, and uses his length to tag his opponent behind an effective jab, and likes to utilize combinations to score effectively on his feet. Santiago’s grappling defense is pretty poor, and his 8 loses by submission is a good indicator as to where the American would like to keep this fight - on the feet. Brunell is a talented grappler who will want to get this fight to the ground ASAP, and work a heavy top position before eventually locking up a submission (probably a choke) to hand Santiago his 9th defeat by submission.

This is a very interesting fight to kickoff the card, and one that I’ll have some exposure to from a GPP perspective. There are a lot of fighters priced under $8,200 on this card that has a very good shot at winning, and Brunell is one that I’ll roster on some of my GPP lineups. If Santiago can keep this fight standing and at range, then he could win a convincing decision, but he won’t be overly aggressive, as he needs to prevent from getting taken down, and that often means a defensive striking posture that limits his output and potential DK scoring.

If there is one play here from a GPP perspective, then it’s Brunell. He has a very good submission game, and it’s been proven that Santiago is susceptible to being submitted. If Brunell can get this fight to the ground, then he’ll rack up some solid points in the grappling department before eventually locking up a submission win in the 1st or 2nd round. Brunell’s ceiling is higher than Santiago’s, and his floor is higher too. Combine that with Brunell being priced at $7,500 compared to Santiago’s $8,700, then there’s really only one play here……..Brunell.

PICK:                                                 Brunell, Sub, 1st                                          

Cash Game:                                     Brunell (7/10): Like his odds of victory, especially knowing Santiago’s weakness is his ground game. Proceed with caution if you are rostering him in your Cash LU’s.

GPP:                                                 Brunell (8/10): I like his ceiling. I like his price tag, and he’ll go overlooked quite a bit here.

Snapshot:

Ugh…...that’s really all I have to say about this one. From a DFS perspective (and from a fight fan perspective) this one does nothing for me. It’s pile of suck, and neither of these two will not come close to sniffing any of my LU’s in DK - Cash or GPP. Don’t waste your time, and as my boys on the “Creating Alpha” podcast said last night, this is a good fight to go drop a deuce, take the dog for a walk, take a smoke break, wrestle around with the wife or GF for 15 minutes, or just get in a cat-nap. Move along….

 PICK:                                                 zzzzzzz……..                        

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   N/A

Snapshot:

Kang is stepping back in the cage after a 3 year layoff due to mandatory military service for his country (South Korea), and Cannetti is coming off of a 2 year layoff due to a USADA suspension for a tainted substance. Both of these guys will have some ring rust to deal with, but even with the rust flying off them as the punches and kicks land, there is a big advantage for Kang in this one.

Kang has a 4” reach advantage and is 3” taller than the Argentinian fighter. Combine that with the fact that Kang is only 30 years old and Cannetti is closing in on 40, and we have a fight that has Kang being a pretty big favorite, and Vegas and DK both agree (-334, $9,200). Kang has a strong wrestling game, and knows how to back it up with a legit submission game as well. Kang is on another level than Cannetti, but both of these guys have a lot of question marks surrounding their MMA games. Neither has fought in a while, and Cannetti is approaching an age where it becomes difficult to fight at the elite level . I usually tend to shy away from fights and fighters with this many question marks, but Kang has the talent and attributes to win this one decisively. This match will be very high scoring from a DFS perspective. I will have some exposure to Kang in some of my GPP lineups, but his $9,200 price tag is a little concerning to me, but he could surprise us, especially with Cannetti’s reputation for having a weak chin. Proceed with caution, and if you’re going to roster anyone, please make sure it’s the South Korean and not the Argentinian.

PICK:                                                  Kang, Decision, Unanimous                       

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Kang (7/10): His price tag is too high for any ranking > 7, but he may surprise us with a 100+ point night.

Snapshot:

The 4th fight of the night is the second of four women’s fights, and similar to the 1st women’s fight on the card, this isn’t one that is very interesting to me from a DraftKings perspective either. Faria (18-6-1) is 31 and 0-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian is an experienced flyweight with the ability to finish fights on the ground and on her feet. She did not look good in her UFC debut but she has more potential to show. Eye (11-6, 1 NC) is 31 and she’s 1-5, 1 NC in the UFC. Eye came into the UFC with high hopes but she has lost four-straight fights and hasn’t fought in well over a year. She is tough but has very little finishing ability and has been a huge disappointment overall. Even going down to 125lbs, I don’t view Eye as a UFC-caliber fighter, and Faria should find a way to outpoint her and win a decision.

Regardless of how this fight plays out, I don’t foresee this one scoring too many DK points on either side. Not only will this be a low scoring DK affair, but it will be a stupidly boring fight to watch as well, unless Eye really does fight for her UFC career, and brings the thunder with a pressure game that we have never seen from her before. From what I have seen from Eye before, she doesn't have that killer instinct, and she’ll find that pace that does a great job of putting us to sleep, or getting most of the viewing public to change the channel. I wouldn’t put too much faith in this fight helping out my Cash or GPP lineups. The only upside is that both of these fighters will be very low owned, for good reason. PUNT!

PICK:                                                  The ref (can I pick the ref?)

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   N/A

Snapshot:

Irene Aldana is 29 years old and has a 7-4 professional MMA record with an 0-2 UFC run so far. The Mexican is a solid striker who will have a 6 inch reach advantage over the 5-2 Brazilian, Talita Bernardo, who was riding a four fight win streak until she stepped on two weeks notice and ended up losing her UFC debut to Marion Reneau in Rotterdam last September.

Aldana will want to keep this one standing and at distance, connecting with her superior striking game, and dictating the pace and place of the fight. One thing that concerns me with Aldana’s style is that she will often slow her striking game down in order to avoid getting taken down. Bernardo is a complete novice on the feet, and she’ll have no shot at beating Aldana if she can’t get the fight to the ground. In Aldana’s previous fights where she has battled grapplers, she has focused so much on not getting taken down that she ended up slowing her striking game down so drastically to be prepared to stuff her opponents takedown attempts, that it made her offensive output much less than what it should have been. This is something she needs to work on - she needs to continue to have an offensive output that will show favorably with the judges, but she also needs to not get overly aggressive where it puts her in a compromising position that may allow Bernardo to get ahold of her and take her to the mat, and she then enters Bernardo’s world where anything can happen.

Aldana’s $9,000 price tag will be hard to payoff if she slows her offensive output down to avoid getting taken down. If she can end the fight within the first two rounds due to a TKO stoppage, then she has a chance of paying off her $9k salary, but my fear is that she is so worried about getting taken down that it will negatively affect her offensive output, and ultimately she won’t end up paying off her salary. I’ll have a little exposure to Bernardo (when I say “a little”, I mean like 1-3 GPP LU’s) because if she pulls off a win, it will be by submission, and she’ll be incredibly low owned. Worth a gamble from a contrarian LU perspective. I’ll have 10-15% of my LU’s littered with Aldana in them, and maybe even a little higher than 15%, because if she figures it out she could be a very dangerous fighter in the women’s 135 pound division.

PICK:                                                  Aldana, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Aldana (5.5/10): Kinda gross, but maybe she puts it together…..or maybe she doesn’t and fights like she always has. Bernardo (5/10): A contrarian play only, and if she wins, it is most likely by sub, and she’ll pay off her $7,200 salary.

Snapshot:

Reyes is 33 years old and is 7-4 in his pro MMA career and holds a 3-1 in the UFC. The Mexican is an exciting striker and has two knockout wins in the UFC though he suffered a knockout defeat to James Vick in his last fight. His striking defense needs a lot of work but there’s no doubt he has the punching power to hurt opponents. Frevola (6-0) is 27 and he’s making his UFC debut. The American got a UFC contract after a win on Dana White’s Contenders Series and overall looks like a very solid, well-rounded prospect with a high ceiling. I enjoy Reyes fight but he’s a flawed fighter that is still developing.

We definitely like to target fighters, and fights in general, that are high-paced, high output, aggressive donny-brooks that produce a high ceiling for both fighters, and we are hopefully picking the fighter who has his hand raised by the ref at the end of the fist-a-cuffs. This is definitely one of those fights, and honestly, it’s a fist fight, so anything could happen, and this is what makes MMA such an awesome sport, especially when analyzing from a DFS perspective!

I like the Long Island, Serra-Longo prodigy in this matchup, and his price tag of $8,900 is well within reason, and when comparing his ceiling with this salary, I am pleasantly surprised! Frevola won’t be known by a lot of “casual” fans, so it is difficult to predict what his ownership level will be, but he should be highly owned if people are analyzing his upside against his salary.

PICK:                                                  Frevola, TKO, 2nd    

Cash Game:                                       Frevola (8/10)

GPP:                                                   Frevola (9/10)

Snapshot:

Krause is 31 and he’s 5-3 in the UFC, and he enters this fight as a -166 favorite, and has a DK salary of $8,400. The American is a well-rounded welterweight with a good striking attack and a solid ground game. While offensively he is gifted, his striking and submission defenses could use work and that’s cost him a few times in his career.

White is 29 and he’s 3-3 in the UFC. The American is a very talented striking with knockout power and in his last fight beat Mitch Clarke up so bad he retired him. Like Krause, White’s striking defense especially needs work, but he is an offensive talent for sure. White started his UFC as a Featherweight, going 2-2 with wins over Estevan Payan and Artem Lobov. Following the latter victory, he made the jump to lightweight, where he’s suffered a decision loss to Tony Martin and scored a technical knockout finish of Mitch Clarke.

This is a close fight but I’ve liked how White has looked since moving up to 155lbs, and he can win this fight by outstriking Krause. It will be a close fight that will go to decision, and this may be a fight where you can save some salary, and slightly gamble with rostering White at $7,800. these will not be fighters with the highest ceilings on the card, but it is a solid opportunity to save some cap, and possibly pull out a Live Dog win in White. Not loving Krause here.

PICK:                                                  White, Decision, Split

Cash Game:                                       White (7.5/10)

GPP:                                                   White (8/10): Live Dog

Snapshot:

Johnson is 31 and he’s 9-8 in the UFC, and he has a resume that is pretty damn impressive, fighting some of the best fighters in the game in the lower weight classes. Johnson was one of the better strikers at 155lbs but after losing four of his last five fights including a KO loss to Justin Gaethje in his last outing he’s moving down to 145lbs.He is one of the fastest fighters in the lower weight classes, and is incredibly fun to watch. It remains to be seen how the weight cut will affect him but if he can carry his KO power down to his new weight class he could be a serious contender.

Elkins (23-5) is 33 and he’s 13-4 in the UFC. Elkins is one of the most underrated fighters on the entire UFC roster and routinely wins fights as an underdog. He’s currently riding a five-fight win streak and has shown huge improvements in his striking to go along with his trademark grinding ability and durability. Although I have been impressed with Elkins’ improvements and it’s hard not to take him as an underdog considering his track record, I just feel like there’s a huge speed difference in this fight. Johnson is so much faster and he has way better striking and more KO power.

Elkins is always the fighter that people overlook, and he loves being in that position! He thrives off of it! He is one of the most gritty, grinding fighters that you’ll ever see fight inside the Octagon, and his $7,600 price tag is pretty damn attractive if you ask me. I’ll be rolling the dice here, but we need to find a few Live Dogs, and we should know by now that Elkins should NEVER be overlooked! It has taken me 4 fights to bet against him and figure it out, but I’m going with him now!

PICK:                                                  Elkins, Decision, Split

Cash Game:                                       Elkins (7.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Elkins (9/10)

                                                            Johnson (7.5/10)

Main Card

Snapshot:

Usman is 29 and he’s 6-0 in the UFC. He’s a stud wrestler, and has some pretty impressive power when he gets ahold of his opponent. The Nigerian is one of the best welterweights on the planet and is currently riding a wave of momentum with 10-straight wins. His grappling game is dominant and his striking game is improving as we saw with his KO of Sergio Moraes in his last outing. He is an outstanding fighter and if he continues winning could soon get a title shot. I like his game when it comes to DFS as well, as it fits very nicely into the DraftKings scoring system.

Meek (9-2, 1 NC) is 29 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The Norwegian turned heads with his knockout win over Rousimar Palhares in Venator FC and in his UFC debut defeated Jordan Mein by decision. However he has not fought in over a year and that ring rust could hurt him here. Although Meek is a solid fighter, I view Usman as a serious title contender at 170lbs and he should be able to use his outstanding wrestling game to neutralize Meek and win a clear decision in this bout.

Usman will be a great source for 100+ points, but everyone and their mom will be on Usman, so you need to keep this in mind when rostering him. If you are playing a multi-entry GPP, then you’ll have your rosters with Usman in them, but if you are playing a single entry GPP, then you may want to look elsewhere for some points.

PICK:                                                  Usman, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:                                       Usman (10/10)

GPP:                                                   Usman (9/10)

Snapshot:

VanZant is 4-1 in the UFC, and she is one of the most popular fighters on the roster primarily due to her looks and her personality, but she’s a decent fighter as well. She has a really solid offensive grappling game and can finish fights at the UFC level, plus she’s very durable though her submission defense needs work. She is a newer breed of MMA fighter that is well-rounded and can striker and grapple. This is great for the DraftKings scoring system, as it rewards fighters who do a little bit of everything - especially wrestling and grappling!

She is moving up to 125lbs for this fight and it could turn out to be a huge move in the right direction in her career although her year-long layoff is definitely a concern. Rose-Clark is 30 and she’s 1-0 in the UFC, and she will have a big size advantage in this bout, and this could turn out to be a big differentiator in this bout. The Australian picked up a decision win over Bec Rawlings in her UFC debut though it wasn’t a hugely impressive win. She seems to be a solid, durable fighter with decent experience but generally has lost when she’s fought solid competition. I was surprised to see the line move so much in this fight in Rose-Clark’s favor as I slightly lean towards VanZant to get the win. As the underdog I definitely have to go with PVZ here to get the victory, likely by decision though a finish wouldn’t completely surprise me.

This is one that I will most likely be avoiding, as I could see this being a pretty boring, pitter-patter striking competition that often doesn’t score well when looking at the DraftKings scoring formula. I’ll have a little bit of PVZ, just in case she pulls a KO out of her ass, but for the most part I’ll be avoiding.

PICK:                                                  PVZ, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       PVZ (7/10)

GPP:                                                   N/A                 

Snapshot: 

Hall is 13-8 in his pro MMA career and he’s 6-6 in the UFC. The Jamaican is wildly inconsistent but when he’s on he’s one of the most dangerous knockout artists at 185lbs! He has some of the most vicious, entertaining KO’s that you’ll ever see in the cage, but the problem is you never know when he’s going to show up, and when he doesn’t show up, he loses decisions against fighters he shouldn’t lose to or gets knocked out.

Belfort is 40 and he’s 15-9, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian is one of the greatest knockout artists in MMA history but has really slowed down in recent years. While he still has dangerous hands and kicks, his cardio and chin are both subpar now and at 40 he should continue to decline in speed. While Hall is inconsistent, Belfort just looks like he has nothing left in the tank at this point. Ever since the UFC started cracking down on PED’s and USADA has been involved, Belfort has been on a serious decline, and this isn’t just a coincidence. His body has changed. His power has declined. His cardio and all around fitness have declined, and it ultimately marked the beginning of the end for one fo the greatest fighters in UFC history.

Hall’s speed advantage is going to be evident here, and I think he knocks Belfort out, but again, Hall is an incredibly inconsistent, so it is tough to put your money on a guy like this. His ceiling isn’t as high as you’d like it to be because when he does win, it typically is quickly and viciously in the 1st round, and he isn’t racking up points by getting takedowns and strikes before locking up the win. He’s one of those KO artists that has been hurt by the newer DK scoring system.

I will have some exposure to both of these fighters in my GPP’s. rostering Belfort makes a lot of sense, because if he does win, he’ll be low owned, and will most likely have a pretty impressive DK scoring output! He’s worth the risk, but he most likely will lose to Hall. It’s a weird one, but have a share of both of them.

UPDATE: Hall vs. Belfort has been pulled from the card due to weight cutting issues for Hall!

PICK:                                                  Hall, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Hall (7.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Hall (8/10)

                                                            Belfort (8/10)

Snapshot:

Choi is 26 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The South Korean is one of the most exciting fighters in the featherweight division. He won his first three fights by knockout and his one loss was the 2016 Fight of the Year against Cub Swanson. He has not fought in over a year but should be motivated to return and get back into the featherweight title picture. With his excellent striking and KO power, Choi is a handful for anyone, though his cardio and striking defense were exposed by Swanson in that fight.

Stephens is 31 and he’s 13-13 in the UFC. The American is one of the most durable, experienced fighters at 145 and he has big-time knockout power. He’s been very up-and-down in his career but he’s looked good at 145 and has experienced a five-round fight.

This should be an amazing fight between two strikers with good chins but I lean towards Stephens here. He is one of my favorite dogs to target on the card, and I’m surprised that he isn’t the favorite in this one, but hell, we’ll take advantage of it. Stephens has more experience and I believe he is a bit tougher and has better cardio which should favor him in a five-round fight. Stephens outstrikes Choi and wins either a decision or possibly even by late stoppage. Stephens should have a solid opportunity to rack up 120+ points, especially if this goes to a decision, or if he wins by TKO late in the 1st round or late in the 2nd round.

PICK:                                                  Stephens, TKO, 4th

Cash Game:                                       Stephens (9/10)

GPP:                                                   Stephens (9/10)

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1