MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 123 - Swanson vs. Ortega

The traveling, fighting gypsy squad pulls into Fresno on Saturday night for UFC Fight Night 123, as 22 fight UFC/WEC veteran, Cub Swanson takes on budding Gracie grappling wiz, Brian Ortega, in a 5 round featherweight battle. The undercard is littered with other entertaining, well-matched fights, so this should be a great card to watch. From a DraftKings perspective, this is a difficult card to handicap, as there are some underdogs that could easily win their fights. This throws a good amount of uncertainty in the air, but I also think when you have this many “Live Dogs” on a card, that it expands the number of lineup combinations that you can play with, and you can get pretty creative. I also believe that it gives the sharps more of an advantage, as there are some “sucker plays” on this card that I think will be highly owned by the general public ---- good for us! Let’s make it rain!

Before I jump into the fight by fight breakdown, I wanted to let you all know about a year long DFS MMA league that is entering it’s 2nd season, and starts the 1st event of 2018 (1/14/18 or so). I run this league through the DK Leagues function, and I track all the standings, records, and other stats for the league. You can find out more info if you’re interested in joining at: https://www.themmafantasychampionship.com/ You can also ask me any questions about the league through Twitter, and as usual, make sure to follow along as I live Tweet the event Saturday night: @TJ_Scott_MMA.

Undercard

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night pits 25 year old American, Trevin Giles, against 30 year old Brazilian, Antonio Braga Neto. This is a solid fight to start the card, as both these guys have proven to be UFC worthy, and exciting fighters to watch. If this fight took place back in 2014 or ‘15, then it would probably be a ‘pick ‘em’ from a betting perspective, but this isn’t 3+ years ago, and this is reality. I bring this up because Braga Neto hasn’t fought a MMA fight in 3.5 years (split decision loss to Clint Hester in the UFC)! He stepped away from fighting back in 2014 due to financial issues, and he focused his attention on his skills as a professional poker player. 3.5 years is a long time to be away from anything, let alone an incredibly physical and taxing sport like MMA where you need to stay active and refined in order to perform at a high level.

Giles only has one fight in the UFC, but he looked very impressive in that fight back July, winning by TKO in the 2nd round. Giles has a solid regional track record, and has quality wins in reputable organizations such as Legacy Fighting and RFA. These fights on the regional circuit have been tough, grinding fights that have tested Giles mettle, and I think this is a positive thing to have on his record as he enters the UFC cage for the 2nd time. I’d rather back a fighter who is 10-0 and has fought quality opponents in front of somewhat “large” crowds, versus a 10-0 fighter who has built his record off of crushing cans on the Brazilian regional scene.

This is a very interesting fight, and one that I’ll have exposure to on both sides. Ultimately, here’s how I see this fight playing out; Giles has solid wrestling and will be able to stuff Neto’s takedowns, as the Brazilian really doesn’t have much of a wrestling game. Giles has been improving his striking at a very quick rate, and I think we’ll see even more improvement since his debut back in July. He’ll be able to have his way with Neto on the feet, so long as he can prevent Neto from getting a hold of him and dragging him to the ground. Neto is also known for having a very poor gas tank, whereas Giles has proven to have solid cardio, and is able to keep up his high volumed striking attack through 3 rounds. These factors tell me that Giles should have his way with Neto, and be able to put him away with punches either late in the 1st round, or at some point in the 2nd round.

I will definitely have exposure to Giles, but so will many other DFS’ers, as he is a big betting favorite, and his opponent hasn’t fought in a long, long time. I think I’ll also have some pretty good exposure to Neto in my GPP lineups, as he has a very good shot at shocking the MMA community if he can get Giles to the ground in the 1st round. If Neto finds a way to get Giles to the canvas, then the odds of Neto finishing this fight with a submission are pretty high! This would be a BIG upset win for our GPP LU’s, especially coming from a fighter with a $7,100 salary! This would free up a lot of space in our LU’s to get creative. I think Giles ultimately wins this win via stoppage due to Neto’s poor cardio and sub-par striking, but there is a very good shot at victory if Neto can get Giles to the ground, and it’s worth a risk in some of your GPP LU’s, as he’ll most likely score 100+ points if he does win, and that’s a hell of a night for a $7,100 fighter! This is MMA, and we’ve seen crazier things than Neto beating Giles. Have exposure to both, and consider Neto a “Live Dog” in this one!

PICK: Giles, TKO, 2nd  

Cash Game: Giles (7/10): It’s a risk for Cash LU’s, as Neto is incredibly dangerous on the ground, but Giles is a legit talent, and should be able to pick Neto apart on the feet and win by TKO or Dec.

GPP: Giles (7.5/10): I like him in GPP’s as well, but his likely high ownership will keep his ranking somewhat tempered.

Neto (6.5/10): Yes, I have Neto ranked higher in GPP’s, as he’ll be fairly low owned, and has a legit shot at winning a big upset by submission in the 1st round. That would be a 100+ point night, and combine that with low ownership, and boom! Serious DFS MMA boner! Neto is a Live Dog, so treat him like one.

Snapshot:

Fight # 2 of the night is another interesting matchup that should be targeted for a few different reasons, and I’ll get to that in a little bit. Chris Gruetzmacher has a solid wrestling pedigree, and is a grinding fighter who has heart, and will battle to the final bell. These are the type of fighters that are dangerous, especially when the fight gets dragged into deep waters, and both fighters toughness, heart, and desire to win gets called into question. These are the types of fights that “Gritz” wants, as he often kills the will of his opponent, and finds himself winning by submission, or by decision - regardless of what the odds were.

Gritz does not have an aesthetically pleasing game, and if this fight starts to become ugly from a visual perspective, then this will be a good sign for the American. Before you know it, Gritz is grinding away, and slowly distancing himself from his opponent on the judges scorecards. This is a realistic possibility, and something we need to consider when putting together our lineups. Gritz is a Live Dog, especially at a $7,500 price tag. It’s also worth noting that Gritz has only fought once in the past 2 years, and this fight took place in February of this year, so it’s not like he’s been incredibly active. He’d didn’t look great at weigh-ins for this fight either. He looked a little soft, and has definitely been more “cut” on the scale before. This concerns me. A guy who hasn’t fought in almost a year, and has only fought once in 2 years should be coming into this bout in the best shape of his life. This makes me question his training camp, dedication, or he possibly has a nagging injury. I don’t know, but it’s worth noting. I still like his “Live Dog” appeal, so I’ll have exposure.

Davi Ramos is a 2015 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Champion (ADCC), taking home the gold medal at one of the most prestigious grappling tournaments in the world. This guy is a killer on the ground, and will thoroughly outclass the American if he can get it to the ground. That’s a BIG “If” though, as Gritz has a solid wrestling game, and may be able to stuff Ramos’ takedowns and keep the fight standing. If he can accomplish this, then Gritz will have the advantage, as Ramos has a wild striking game that lacks technique, and Gritz has had good enough coaching in his career that he should be able to avoid the big winging punch, but it is a risk, as anyone can get caught, and Gritz doesn’t have the best head movement from a defensive perspective.

This is an interesting one to consider from a DFS perspective, as I can see value in both guys. Gritz is underpriced in my opinion, and his betting odds are out of whack too. If I were to create a betting line on this fight, I’d put Grits around +200. Right now he’s at +365 on 5Dimes! He’s a better fighter than +365, that’s for sure, especially with this style matchup. I think the linemakers are looking at Ramos’ superior ground game, and they see it ending quickly if it gets to the ground. BUT….if it doesn’t get to the ground, which is definitely a possibility, then I think Gritz wins the striking decision, or if Ramos gases, then Gritz may be able to finish the Brazilian with strikes in the 2nd or 3rd round. I’ll have exposure to Gritz for his Live Dog appeal at $7,500, but I don’t think he’ll rack up a ton of points with stuffing takedowns and striking from the outside, but a win with a $7,500 is a win, right, and we can’t complain about that! It’s better than a stick in the eye.

Now, if Ramos is able to get this fight to the ground, then I think he’ll rack up some Advancement points before locking up the submission. If this takes place in the first round, then he’ll earn 110+ points. The good thing about Gritz’s toughness is that it will allow him to take some punishment, get out of some compromising positions on the ground, and this will all add to Ramos’ point intake, and ultimately, the American’s toughness will give Ramos an opportunity to really rack up the DK points before finishing him in the 1st. If this fight gets to the 2nd round, then look for the confidence to start building for the American, and he’ll have a legitimate shot at taking home a “W” in this one, and would pay off greatly for our GPP lineups.  

PICK: Ramos, Sub, 1st

Cash Game: Ramos (9/10): Yes, there definitely is a threat of Gritz pulling out an upset here, but with Gritz’s toughness, and Ramos’ awesome ground game, this could be a very high scoring fight for Ramos, but you’ll have to pay for him, and I don’t love the style matchup. Gritz looking a little soft on the scale was the ultimate determining factor for me, but this one is much closer than the pricing and odds say it is.

GPP: Gruetzmacher (8.5/10): We have to find a few Live Dogs on each card, and I think Gritz is one of them here in Fresno. He’s lack of activity concerns me, but if he can keep it standing, this could be really good for our lineups. I think he’ll be targeted by a lot of the sharp DFS players out there though, so keep that in mind.

Ramos (7.5/10): Tough one here. He’s got a high ceiling if he gets this fight to the ground, as Gritz will take a beating before finally losing, and this toughness could easily give us an additional 15 - 25 points. He’s a little over priced in my opinion, but his Rank Value is great at -5 (he’s the biggest betting odds on the card, but is the 6th highest DK salary on the card), so we need to consider this too. Stuff to consider from all angles, but I like both guys.

Snapshot:

Fight #3 has Alejandro Perez coming in as a +170 dog, taking on the 37 year old Iuri Alcantara (-207) in a solid Bantamweight matchup. Perez has been on a roll as of late, going 4-1-1 in the last 3 years in the sport’s top organization. He hasn’t fought the toughest competition in the division, but Alcantara will definitely be a step up for him.

Alcantara is 37 years old, and has to be close to starting to decline if he hasn’t already. His last fight was an awful performance against Brian Kelleher, who was making his UFC debut and Alcantara entered as a 4:1 favorite in the fight. The fight ended quickly as the Brazilian made a rookie mistake, shooting in with his neck exposed with little to no defense once he was caught in a guillotine. It was an eye-opening performance by both fighters, and it showed Alcantara’s talent level does not match his Fight IQ level. He’s been an inconsistent fighter his entire career, and not one that you can count on for an expected performance or game plan. He has a low Fight IQ, and that’s something I don’t love in DFS, especially Cash lineups. He’s worth the risk in GPP’s, but he’ll increase your blood pressure every time he’s in your lineups.

Perez is 9 years younger than Alcantara, and gives up 4 inches of reach to the Brazilian. Perez is a gritty fighter with a lot of hear, but he isn’t the most athletic or technical fighter in the division. He’s definitely a Live Dog here, as he has the talent and heart to outwork Alcantara and win, but he’s also susceptible to getting caught, and with Alcantara’s hand speed and power, this could mean a sleepy fighter on his back by the end of the bout.

Tough one to call here, and I’ll probably use Perez as a punt play in a few lineups, because I could see him pulling off an upset, especially when you combine his heart with ALcantara’s mental lapses and weak Fight IQ. Anything can happen, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on this one, but I’ll have exposure to both guys in my GPP’s, as Alcantara could win in violent fashion in the 1st round, or Perez could win an ugly decision, or by submission if Alcantara has a brain-fart again.

PICK: Alcantara, KO, 1st     

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Alcantara (7/10): He’s got talent, but he’s getting older, and has mental lapses.

         Perez (7.5/10; Punt Play): Perez has a shot in this one, and he’d save you a boatload of cash. Risky, but worth a look.     

Snapshot:

The 37 year old wrestler from Arizona, Frankie Saenz, takes on the debuting Serra-Longo fighter, Merab Dvalishvili (MD). Saenz is on a 3 fight losing streak, and most likely will be given his walking papers if he loses this one, and probably would be a good time to hang up the gloves and move on to golf or something. MD is a highly touted prospect who has improved his striking immensely under the tutelage of Ray Longo on Long Island. He’s the stronger, younger fighter who has a more dynamic game, but you should never underestimate Saenz toughness, and ability to control the fight where he wants it to be. I think that the fact that Saenz has dropped his last 3 fights most likely tells us that he is on the decline, and he should be considered a risky play in any format. Even if he was still close to his peak, he doesn’t have a style that is conducive to earning a lot of DK points.

I’ll be avoiding this one, but you may want to consider MD in a few of your GPP LU’s, as he’ll most likely be fairly low owned, and he may surprise us with a quick finish, or a game that is very DraftKings friendly. There are a lot of question marks surrounding MD, but this fight should give us a glimpse into what we should expect in the future from the Serra-Longo product.

PICK: Dvalishvili, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:

This fight is a pretty easy one to handicap in my opinion. De Thomas is making his 2nd appearance in the UFC cage after getting beat very easily by Naoki Inoue back in June in a unanimous decision victory for Inoue. Perez is only 25 years old, but he’s had 22 professional fights! Don’t let the fact that he is making his UFC debut and that he is only 25 years old fool you that he is an inexperienced rookie. This kid is wise beyond his years, and he trains with a solid camp, and has a well-rounded game that should easily outmatch that of his opponent.

It looks like De Thomas was brought in as an easy victory for the hyped prospect in Perez. As of said before, if you can spot a situation where the UFC is trying to setup a win for a fighter, and build him up, then that’s a good fighter to target from many angles. I like Perez here, as I think he’s got a game that could really be suited well for the DraftKings scoring format. Even if this one goes to a decision, I could see Perez racking up 120-130 points. If he strikes well, and uses that into securing takedowns with ground advances and heavy ground N pound, then I think it could be a high scoring night for the Team Oyama fighter. I don’t mind his salary when you compare it to the potential upside that he brings to the table. He’s $400 dollars cheaper than Jason Knight, has a higher ceiling, and will definitely be lesser owned than Knight and many of the other top tier fighters. A solid target in all formats due to all of these factors.  

PICK: Perez, dominant decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Perez (9.5/10): I love his odds of victory, his pedigree, his style, and his ceiling. Take my money!!

GPP: Perez (9.5/10): For all the reasons mentioned above!

Snapshot:

Another great matchup, and very quietly this card is turning in to one that you really shouldn’t miss if you’re a MMA fan! Luke Sanders has talent oozing from every orifice, and the UFC knows this. They are trying to build him up, as they seem as a potential title contender in the next few years. He’s a well-rounded fighter with a very good wrestling game, and a high pace that is difficult to duplicate in the cage. He made a splash in his UFC debut when he KO’ed the heavy favorite, Maximo Blanco, on short notice, and instantly made a name for himself. His 2nd fight in the UFC cage was against fellow UFC FN 123 fighter, Irui Alcantara, and Sanders was dominating his foe over the course of 2 rounds before he was caught in a knee bar and forced to tap. It was a mental lapse that should have been easily defended, but this is just part of the learning curve once you start competing at the sports highest level.

You cannot automatically jot down Sanders as the victor, as Andre Soukhamthath is no slouch, regardless of what his 0-2 UFC record says. He has lost 2 razor-thin split decisions to Alejandro Perez and Albert Morales. The Asian Sensation is a very good striker with a dynamic attack that comes from all limbs at different angles. I wouldn’t be surprised if Souk has the advantage in the striking department, and if Sanders starts to feel that the New Englander is getting the best of him on the feet, then I suspect he’ll adjust his game plan, and take Soukhamthath down to work his heavy ground N pound top game. This is where I believe that Sanders has the advantage, and if he can keep Souk on his back, then I think he’ll earn a decision victory. Do not underestimate Souk though, as he is much better than his UFC record, and can easily turn his UFC career around, and make a run at the top 15.

Souk is also taking this fight on short notice, and this could have an effect on his cardio in rounds 2 and 3. Sanders will find it easier to get him down as his gas tank starts to empty, and once on top, Souk will find it very difficult to shed Sanders with nothing left in the tank. This could mean grappling advances, submission attempts, and a heavy top game from Sanders, and this could all add up to a very handsome DK score. There is a risk, as I think Souk has a chance against anyone in the division if he’s allowed to show off his heavy-handed, dynamic striking game, so I would definitely consider Souk a Live Dog, and a punt play for a few GPP lineups. He’s only $7,200, but he is a solid all-around fighter who is dangerou, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled off an upset here. On the other hand, Sanders has an impressive style that is high energy, and is very well suited for the DK scoring format, so he could easily put up 110+ points in a decision victory, or a stoppage victory. Have some exposure to both, but I like Souk as a punt play, as he’ll be low owned, and has the ability to win this fight.  

PICK: Soukhamthath, TKO, 1st    

Cash Game: N/A or possibly a look at Sanders

GPP: Soukhamthath (7.5/10, Punt Play): It’s a risky play, especially against a talent like Sanders on short notice, but I’m willing to go out on a limb and roll the dice on this one, as he’ll be low owned, and if he wins, it will be high scoring, and a great LU differentiator.

          Sanders (8/10): I think sanders has a great style to maximize the DK scoring system, and has a high ceiling, but Souk isn’t a can.

Snapshot:

We’ll keep this one short and sweet, as I don’t think there is much to target in this one. Both of these women have been very inactive over the last 3-4 years, and inactivity concerns me due to ring rust, but also not being able to judge a possible decline in their fight game. These are fights that I tend to shy away from due to unanswered questions. This matchup could also be a snooze-fest of cage position battles, and uneventful groundwork, leading to a low ceiling type of fight that isn’t smart for us to consider. I’d pass on this one, but you may want to consider Davis as a dog that may cash for you, but I don’t think it will be very high scoring if she does pull of the victory. She’s a Live Dog, but I think there are too many other attractive options on this card to force Davis onto your your roster.

PICK: Carmouche, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Main Card

Snapshot:

Another killer matchup here as 26 year old Albert Morales takes on 23 year old up and comer, Benito Lopez. Lopez is making his UFC debut after earning a contract via a victory on Dana White’s Contender Series back in August. Lopez is undefeated and has torn up the regional scene in impressive fashion, so this will be his biggest test yet to date. He prefers to strike from outside the pocket and will switch stances with ease as he circles his opponent, looking to counter strike, and eventually pounce once he lands a shot that rattles his opponent’s cage.

Morales is 1-2-1 in the UFC and could easily be 0-4. He’s picked up wins in WSOF and Bellator, and entered the UFC undefeated, but he just hasn’t been able to progress his game to a point where he’s beating UFC-caliber fighters, and this isn’t good news for him, as Lopez comes in with mass amounts of confidence and one of the best camps behind him in Team Alpha Male.

The betting odds has this one as a pick em, which seems about right, especially with Lopez making his UFC debut, and definitely not fighting the same caliber fighters that Morales has over the course of his career. Morales definitely has the experience edge, but Lopez has the talent edge, and when you combine this with his training camp, confidence in his own game, and his recent performance in front of Dana White, I think you have a recipe for victory. Lopez has the talent to shake up the division and become a legitimate top 10 fighter in the division, and only being 23, the UFC sees a way to determine what they really have on their hands.

This is a tight one, but I like Lopez to either end this one violently within the first 2 rounds, or win a convincing decision. It’s a tough one to call from a DFS perspective, as we don’t really know how each fighter wants to approach this one. I think they’ll keep the fight standing and have a striking battle, as both fighters aren’t incredibly comfortable off of their backs, so I think they’ll try to keep it in each of their comfort zones, which to our benefit is on the feet. This is a nice mid-tier fight to target, and I think Lopez could be a low-owned play that pays off handsomely, so I’ll definitely have some exposure to him in both Cash and GPP. The risk here is that Lopez uses his counter-striking and circling to lul his opponent to sleep, and only taking risks at certain times in the fight. These counter-striking fighters can turn out to be low scoring slugs in certain matchups, but I think the 23 year old has enough desire to impress, and will be willing to take chances in his debut to earn the fans respect, and after you take a look at their shoving match at the weigh-ins, then you can draw the conclusion that Lopez will want to put his foe to sleep, and not play patty-cake.

PICK: Lopez, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Lopez (8/10): A risky play in a pick ‘em, but we’ll need some mid-tier fighters in order to pull this off, and Lopez fits that mold nicely!

GPP: Lopez (8/10): A solid mid-tier target that has nice upside, and should be fairly low owned.

Snapshot:

The most promising middleweight prospect that you probably haven’t heard of: Eryk Anders ladies and gentlemen! Anders is a former linebacker for the 2009 University of Alabama football team, so he knows what it takes and the dedication that is needed in order to succeed at the highest levels of the sport. He’s an incredibly heavy-handed southpaw that stalks his prey before eventually blitzing into the pocket with thundering left hands that are bound to KO any human (or any elephant) that has the unfortunate opportunity of eating one of them! He’s 9-0 as a professional, and he was the inaugural middleweight champ for Legacy Fighting, which ironically was then claimed by Perez when Anders had to vacated it when the UFC came knocking.

Perez is no slouch either, and he has a bright future ahead of him, but he has an incredibly tall task taking on Anders on short notice, replacing John Phillips with about a month to train. Perez has a solid ground game, but Anders has taken his training very seriously as a professional MMA fighter, and has progressed to a BJJ Purple belt, so he should be able to fend off Perez, and keep the fight on the feet. Even if it does go to the ground, Anders should have enough training to survive Perez’s submission attempts and get back to his feet once the opportunity presents itself.

Anders will eventually back Perez against the cage, and Perez will be forced to bob and weave to avoid Anders’ night ending left hand, but one will eventually get through, and that’s all it takes with Anders and the power that he poses. I like Anders a lot in all formats, and he does have the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -103, so the odds of this ending violently in the 1st round is pretty good, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll pay off his $9.200 salary. Anders has the striking style that could end a fight with one punch, and if that happens :15 seconds into the 1st round, that means he’d score 100.5 points. Yes, enough to pay off his $9,200 salary, but his ceiling is lower than that of a few other fighters on the card, as we’ve learned over the years that a fighter who is well-rounded, lands a high volume of strikes on the feet and on the ground, and has a grappling game that mixes in plenty of positional advances will typically score higher than just a pure KO striker. You need the fight to play out perfectly, which is more difficult to achieve than a KO artists ultimate end game, but if those well-rounded fighters achieve their mix of strikes landed, takedowns, and ground advances, then they could easily score 130+ points, where Anders most likely has a ceiling of 110 with his KO style. He doesn’t land a ton of volume when striking, because his opponents are typically unconscious in the middle of the cage instead of taking multiple blows over the course of 3 rounds.  

PICK: Anders, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Anders (9/10): I think he wins easily, and puts up 100+ points for us, but you’ll have to pay up for him. He’s a solid Cash game play.

GPP: Anders (8.5/10): I like him in GPP’s as well, but his ceiling is lower than some other cheaper fighters on the card, and he’ll be very highly owned.

Snapshot:

Scott Holtzman vs. Darrell Horcher isn’t a fight that interest me very much, both in real life and fake life DFS. Horcher is a ho-hum fighter, but for him to even be in the UFC right now is impressive, as he got into a horrific motorcycle accident a few years back where he should have died! Hats off to his desire to get back in the cage and compete at this level after an accident like that, but this is DFS, and sympathy won’t bank me points. Holtzman has a decent all-around game, but he’ll never be able to break into the top 15. He’ll always be a middle-of-the-road gate keeper.

Holtzman does a lot during his fights. He’s constantly active….just doing…..something. Punching, kicking, knees, clinch, takedowns. He’s diverse in his attack, and I don’t think that Horcher will be able to defend Holtzman’s attack. This could make for a solid scoring night for Holtzman, and someone that you should consider in GPP formats.

PICK: Holtzman, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Holtzman (8/10): I like him, especially against a shitty Horcher. Could be a nice night for Holtzman, and he should be under owned.         

Snapshot:

Another well-matched fight here in Marlon Moraes vs Aljamain Sterling. Unfortunately, I don’t think this fight is going to be very impactful from a DFS perspective. Sterling comes in as a slight dog at +123 and a salary of $7,600, and initially you see this salary and you think to yourself, “Sterling for only $7,600? He’s good. He should be at least $8,000”, but when you peel back the onion, and watch some film, then you see the real “Funkmaster Aljo” that you are investing in. A conservative, defensive fighter who plays a pitter-patter striking game to outpoint his frustrated opponents. Not a guy you want to roster, but I think people will still roster him, thinking he’s a good value. But he’s not. To Sterlings credit, he only absorbs 1.33 Significant Strikes per Minute - the lowest in the division. When a fighter is so focused on not getting hit and avoiding his opponents strikes, they aren’t prepared to fully engage their opponent with offensive attacks, so defense becomes the priority, and offense becomes a conservative afterthought. This is what we get with Aljamain Sterling. I don’t want any part of that.

Moraes is a very good fighter, and has the potential to challenge for the belt eventually. He’s 1-1 in the UFC, and is a former belt holder in the World Series of Fighting. Moraes is a well-rounded fighter that can compete with anyone in the division, but I don’t think he brings much value to the table due to the type of fight that Sterling is going to drag him into.

This will be a standup battle that doesn’t have many big strikes, or a high volume of strikes being landed. It will come to down to who the judges thinks was moving forward, being more aggressive, and landed the bigger shots. I think Moraes wins a very tight decision, and ultimately it will be a frustrating fight to watch, and not one that will score well on DraftKings.

PICK: Moraes, Decision, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:

The co-main event of the evening is a featherweight fist-a-cuff featuring Alan Belcher standout, Jason Knight, taking on AKA trained Gabriel Benitez. This should be a violent fight, like most fights that Jason Knight is involved in. Knight is an an aggressive, forward marching bully who embraces a bloody battle that tests one’s will. He has proven to have a chin of granite, taking heavy strikes in order to deliver even heavier blows, but this strategy fell short in his last fight versus Ricardo Lamas. Lamas was able to rock Knight with a barrage of punches that would have KO’ed a rhino, but Knight stayed conscious, scrambling for a takedown which ultimately lead to Lamas locking up a submission on a concussed Knight. Regardless of the loss, Knight has proven to be an upper-level fighter who has an exciting style that fans love to see. He’s well rounded, and has a very good ground game to match his aggressive striking style. This gives him many paths to victory, and a chance of accumulating DK points in any position in the cage.

Benitez has improved over the last 2 years, specifically in the striking area, but his wrestling is pretty gross. Knight’s wrestling game isn’t anything to write home about, but it is still much better than Benitez’s. Knight is on another level than his Mexican counterpart, and I think this will be pretty obvious within the first 2 minutes of the fight. Knight will have his way with Benitez on the feet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Knight beats him up before finishing him via ref stoppage either late in the 1st round or at some point in the middle of the 2nd round. Knight isn’t scared to beat his opponent up and then grab a hold of a submission to end the fight. Regardless of how he wants to win, he has a high ceiling from a DraftKings angle, and I will have a good amount of exposure to Knight in all formats. Yes, he isn’t cheap, and he will be highly owned, so I won’t be overly exposed to Knight, but I’ll have 25-30% of my GPP lineups peppered with Knight and his redneck, workman like approach to his MMA game. Mad respect, and a hell of a lot of fun to watch!

PICK: Knight, Sub, 2nd  

Cash Game: Knight (9/10): He isn’t cheap, but he’s got a very good chance to rack up 110+ DK points.

GPP: Knight (8/10): He’s a great GPP play too, but he will be highly owned, so it reduces his value to some degree. I think there are enough options out there with just as high of a ceiling as Knight (some higher), cost less, and will most likely be lesser owned. I’d rather have one of these guys than Knight when it’s all said and done.

Snapshot:

The main event pits 34 year old Cub Swanson against 26 year old Brian Ortega. Swanson has had a storied career, and has a chance to be a future hall of famer without ever winning a belt. This is a conversation for another day, but should a fighter who never won a belt get into the Hall of Fame? If there is any exception to the rule, it would be Cub Swanson. He has 22 UFC/WEC appearances, and has been a top-10 featherweight for over a decade! There aren’t many people who can say that. Swanson has an awesome technical boxing game, but he also throws effective kicks, and has a great Fight IQ, as you’d expect from a 22 fight UFC vet. Swanson is aging and may be on the decline, but I think that Swanson still has enough gas in the tank to compete at the top of the division, and I think he’ll be able to have his way with a gritty Ortega.

Ortega is a Gracie BJJ student, and he’s pulled out 4 3rd round submissions in his last 4 UFC fights! It’s incredibly, but he finds a way to pull of an unexpected submission when he is losing the fight, and has nothing left to lose. He’s dangerous on the mat, and Swanson will obviously want to keep this fight standing, and utilize his superior boxing to out point Ortega on the feet. I think he’ll be well aware of Ortega’s efforts to get him to the mat, so he’ll be conservative in throwing any kicks, and he may not throw any kicks at all, and just use his hands to piece up Ortega over the course of this 5 round affair.

From a DFS perspective, I think this is a fight that you should target. Both of these fighters will be popular, but with the 5 rounds, and the pace at which Swanson boxes, he could easily earn 120+ points in a decision win. Ortega, on the other hand, will most likely win via submission, and that could come in the 1st or the 5th, or anywhere in between. I don’t think Ortega will score many points in the striking battle, but if he can get the fight to the ground, he’ll get some advances before he ultimately locks up a submission. Ortega’s ceiling is definitely lower than Swanson’s, and I think that Cub’s boxing will be too much for Ortega in the long run. Swanson will rack up 110 - 140 points in a decision victory. Join the crowd though, as he’ll be highly owned!

PICK: Swanson, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Swanson (8.5/10): Not incredibly confident in victory here, but he has a manageable salary and a high ceiling, so I’ll roll the dice.

GPP: Swanson (9/10): I’d like to give him a higher rank, but with how popular he will be, it really reduces his value. On the other hand, if he is going to score 140 points, you’re going to want to have a piece of that, as he’ll definitely be on the winning roster. He also only costs $8,100! HUGE upside for that price.

          Ortega (7/10): I’ll have some exposure to Ortega, but not much. His ceiling is lower, and that’s not something we like in GPP’s

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

GPP 2

GPP 3

*Pivot to S. Holtzman ($8,300)

**Pivot to B. Lopez ($8,200)