MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 119

UFC FN 119: Machida vs. Brunson

UFC Fight Night 119: Machida vs. Brunson comes rolling into Brazil for a crazy good card that should not be overlooked just because it’s a fight night card! This may be the best top to bottom Fight Night card ever put on by the UFC! No joke! The matchmaking is great, and there are a number of fights that are very close, both in DK salaries, and Vegas lines. This makes this one a fun card to handicap, because there are a lot of lineup possibilities to construct here. 

Without further ado, let’s jump right into the preview fight by fight, and as always, follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA for fight updates. 

Undercard 

Snapshot: 

An interesting first fight starts this card, as local hero, Marcelo Golm (5-0), makes his UFC debut against Christian Colombo (8-2-1), a 2 fight UFC vet. Two 6’5” guys clashing in the middle of the cage starts the card. This one has some upside to it from a DFS perspective, but also a lot of question marks. There’s very little film on Golm, as he’s only been fighting professionally for 2 years, and he hasn’t fought anyone with much talent at all. This will be his stiffest test to date. He may have very little big fight experience, but Golm does have the size, agility, and makeup to be a talent in the heavyweight division that is desperately searching for stars. 

Colombo is also a big dude, and 12 years the elder of Golm, and he hasn’t had the best cardio track record. He is also very lumbering, with below average hand speed, and a game that needs a punch to land on the button of his opponent, or it will be a very long night. Colombo also has virtually no ground game either, so I don’t think he’ll fair very well on the mat if it happens to go there. 

I like the younger, more athletic fighter in this one, even if he has a salary of $8,800. I think he gets a stoppage victory in the 1st or 2nd round, and scores right around 100 points. He’s much more athletic than Colombo, and I think that determines the result. 

PICK: Golm, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Golm (8.5/10): I like his odds of victory, and his ceiling, but he also has a low floor with the amount of question marks there are with so little fight footage of him. 

GPP: Golm (9/10): I think this one ends rather quickly, as Golm has 5 victories in the very first round, and I don’t think anything changes here. 

Snapshot: 

Somebody’s “O” must go! In the 2nd fight of the night, 13-0 Jarred Brooks takes on 12-0 Deiveson Figueiredo. This has the potential to be a very entertaining fight, as both these guys fight with passion and energy. 

Brooks has a very good wrestling pedigree, and he pressures his opponents with his attacks, often keeping them retreating. He’s somewhat undersized for the division, but his heart could easily allow Brooks to drag this one into deep waters, and test the Brazilian’s heart and talent. 

Figueiredo is a finisher, with only 8% of his fights ending in decision! Impressive, especially for this division, which typically has a higher rate of decisions. I have to assume that many of these stoppages were due to poor matchmaking that typically occurs on the regional scene in Brazil. The Brazilian definitely has some hype around him, but he has never fought someone on Brooks’ level before, especially someone with the pressure and wrestling that Brooks brings every fight. 

Neither of these guys have good inside the distance props, and their striking rates are both very low as well. I could see this one being a low scoring affair from a DFS perspective, so I wouldn’t get too fired up about this one, but I do think there is some value here with Figueiredo, as he only has a $7,300 salary, and I think it should be closer to $7,700. He may be someone to target in your GPP lineups, because he does have the talent to win this fight, and if you can roster him at $7,300 and get a W, then you are sitting pretty in your LU’s only two fights in! 

I think ultimately Brooks’ wrestling and top game will be too much for the Brazilian, and Brooks will win a ho hum decision that doesn’t look great within our rosters (80 pts or so?). I really only like Figgy here as a possible low salaried Live Dog! 

PICK: Brooks, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Figueiredo (7/10): I think we are getting value in his salary here, and he has better odds than it shows. Long shot, but who knows? 

Snapshot: 

The 3rd fight of the night pits the 30 year old Brazilian, Zaleski dos Santos, taking on 31 year old American, Max Griffin. Dos Santos is on a 3 fight win streak in the UFC, and is almost undefeated, but lost a close split decision to Nicolas Dalby in dos Santos’ UFC debut. He’s heavy handed, has a solid chin, solid cardio, and very little prowess on the ground. He’s currently a -220 favorite, and sports a $9,000 salary. 

Max Griffin also is a aggressive striker, and has heavy hands, but he doesn’t have the cardio that dos Santos has, and I think that could ultimately be the difference. Dos Santos has been the more proven fighter over the last year plus, but Griffin is a good athlete, and may surprise us with his heart if he starts getting rocked on the feet. I do think that dos Santos has too much experience, power, and cardio, and eventually overcomes Griffin at some point in the 2nd round. 

I like dos Santos’ chances of winning in this one, and most likely have a solid DFS scoring night, but his salary is high, and it may be difficult for him to pay off his salary if this fight gets beyond the 1st round, and will be close to impossible if it gets past the 2nd round. This should be a highly entertaining striking affair, and good possibly steal the Fight of the Night honors, as dos Santos has a knack for those type of fights in his UFC career. Don’t miss this one. It will be fun to watch! 

PICK: dos Santos, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: dos Santos (7.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and I think his style will produce solid results for your LU, hopefully enough to pay it off! 

GPP: dos Santos (8/10): I am banking on dos Santos to stay out of trouble, Griffin exposing his chin like he often does, and dos Santos landing a big shot to end it! 

Snapshot: 

Interesting matchup here. You have a up and comer in Gordon who’s 1-0 in the UFC and riding high, taking on a veteran of 7 UFC fights, and 28 professional fights, and has been on the decline over the past few years! Who succeeds? The vet, or the young gun? 

Dias trains out of Nova Unaio, who’s fighters are notoriously tough to takedown, which could pose a problem for Gordon if he presses the fight against the cage, and is working for a takedown - which is a very realistic possibility. It could be a stall fest against the cage, but everything points to Gordon being on a serious roll with mass amounts of confidence - just watch his UFC debut. Pretty awesome performance. 

Gordon has serious pressure and volume to his game, and his cardio looked very good in his debut fight with the organization. Dias may be able to stuff the first few takedown attempts, but I think Gordon will eventually get his way in that department. I also like Gordon’s Fight IQ, making him a favorite of mine! 

The line is currently favoring Gordon at -163 with an $8,400 salary. I think that this is a very good matchup for Gordon to show his skills, but on the flip side, it could also be a grappling stall-fest, not amounting to many DK points in the end. This could really go either way; stand up and bang, or a grapple-hump. I really don’t know, but I do really like Gordon’s volume of striking, his offensive pressure, and his mental makeup, so I’ll be targeting him in Cash formats, and also in some of my GPP lineups. 

PICK: Gordon, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: Gordon (7/10): I like his odds and price, but I’m not 100% sure that he’ll earn 100+ points for us, but we like our wins in Cash. 

GPP: Gordon (7/10): His reasonable price tag, and potential upside make him very intriguing from a DFS perspective, and I don’t think he’ll be too highly owned either. 

Snapshot: 

This middleweight bout pits Brazilian grappling sensation, Antonio Carlos Junior (ACJ) (-500, $9,200), taking on gritty, heavy-handed striker, Jack Marshman (+400, $7,000). Marshman has proven to be an effective striker who has heart, and a will to win. His downfall is his takedown defense, and his ground game in general, and that’s the last weakness you want when you are facing ACJ! 

ACJ will have a 6 inch reach advantage, be the bigger fighter, and will eventually have his way in getting Marshman to the mat. Once to the ground, I don’t think this fight last more than an additional 3 minutes, ultimately with ACJ’s hand raised in the center of the cage. I will not write off Marshman having a puncher's chance in this fight, and it would be a huge upset for your GPP LU, but I think ACJ has had enough experiences with guys who can throw in his career, and he’ll weather anything Marshman throws at him. 

I may have a GPP lineup or two with Marshman in it, as he is a huge underdog, but his style matchup could produce a big, quick upset…...although I don’t foresee that happening, and ACJ will work his magic on the ground, and eventually overwhelm Marshman with advances, strikes, and eventually a submission in the 1st round. 

ACJ also has the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -165, and that’s obviously an important stat when looking at DK relevance. I don’t mind the $9,200 salary, as I think he can pay that off with a first round submission win, earning 100+ points, and helping all of us out! 

PICK:Carlos Junior, Sub, 1st

Cash Game: Carlos Junior (9.5/10): I think it’s a quick win, and a lot of points!

GPP: Carlos Junior (8/10): His high ownership is what hampers his attractiveness in GPP LU’s, but you also don’t want to miss out on the 100+ points. Plan accordingly. 

Snapshot: 

Fight #6 of the night is a good one! Great matchmaking with this one! The betting line is tight on this one, and either guy could be the slight favorite on Saturday night. Niko Price (+105, $7,700) is a big welterweight who has the look of a gladiator, and his first 3 UFC fights also backed that look up, as he tore through the overly hyped Brandon Thatch, securing a submission late in the 1st round. He then proceeded to lose the first round to Alex Morono in his next fight, but came back with avengence in the 2nd round, viciously KO’ing Alex Morono as the bell sounded at the end of the 2nd round. 

Price is big, athletic, undefeated, and his improving by leaps and bounds with every fight. His ground game has been tested much, but his a brown belt in BJJ, so he must know enough to be dangerous. His striking style is unique, as he is so long for the 170 pound weight class, throwing aggressive high kicks combined with heavy handed right straights, and left jabs. If you stand in front of him long enough, he will eventually catch you, and you most likely will go to sleep. He will figure you out eventually. 

He has some flaws, but those seem to be narrowing quickly as his career progresses. He improved leaps and bounds from his 2nd fight in the UFC to his 3rd fight, and I would look for this improvement to continue in his fight with Luque. Price had pour head movement in his fight with Alex Morono, and sometimes sat too heavy in his striking stance, opening himself to be very hittable. He has a low defensive striking ratio, and can find himself in a tough position if he doesn’t keep his chin tucked, and have better head movement than in previous bouts. 

Luque is very light on his feet, bouncing in and out of range, looking to land while jumping into the pocket, and escaping before being hit. He tends to wing his punches with his soldiers, throwing from the hip, hoping for the hail mary. If he had more of a tactical approach, then I think he’d be more effective with his striking. Leon Edwards figured him out after losing the first round, and Luque seemed to wilt as Edwards up the pressure, and Luque’s cardio started to fail. This is important, as we’ve seen Niko Price in deep waters, and he rallied, finding his tempo, and eventually proving that his cardio was much better than that of Alex Morono, although that didn’t initially seem to be the case. 

This is an interesting fight, and I could really seeing it going either way, but I have a feeling about this one, and we need to take advantage of it. Niko Price continues to improve with every fight he has. He’s long, awkward, has legit cardio, and can strike with the best in the division. His ground game is still questionable, but I don’t think Luque will be able to get the bigger and more athletic Price to the ground, giving Niko a big advantage on the feet. He will eventually land one on Luque’s chin, and it will change the fight in a big way. I love Niko’s salary at $7,700, as he has some serious upside, and I think many of the important factor give an edge to Price is in this one. Throw some money on Niko’s line, put him in all formats of your lineup, and enjoy the show Saturday night! 

PICK:Price, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Price (7/10): Risky, as it’s definitely not a layup of a win, but he has a high ceiling, you can save some salary, and he has a chance at being the highest scoring fighter on the card. 

GPP: Price (8.5/10): I love his Live Dog status here! We’ll take the discount, as I think the salaries should be flipped. 

Main Card

Snapshot: 

Another great matchup with here! Heavy handed John Lineker (-550, $9,400), takes on 24 year old Marlon Vera (+425, $6,800) in the opening bout of the main card. Lineker has proven to be one of the best lighter weight fighters on the planet, known for his wild, heavy handed, haymakers, that seem to find their target more often than not. He lands just over 5 Strikes per Minute, which means that Lineker not only poses incredible power, but he also throws with a volume that is very hard to match. When opponents get into a firefight with Lineker, it often ends bad for them. 

Vera isn’t a slouch by any means. He’s 24 years old and is on a 3 fight win streak coming into this matchup with Lineker. Vera has a bright future ahead of him, and has the potential to own the belt at some point, but this is not the time where the torch is going to be past. Lineker is still at the top of his game, and has fought the best of the best in multiple divisions, often coming out on top. I don’t foresee Vera having the firepower to out duel Lineker on the feet, and I think that’s where this one remains. 

This is a tough one from a DFS perspective, as Lineker’s stats show a high volume, heavy handed striker, but that isn’t always the best recipe when looking to accumulate DK points. I have confidence in Lineker landed a solid percentage if his high volume of strikes thrown, but will they be able to put away tough and gritty Marlon Vera? That is the real question, because without a stoppage in the 1st 2 rounds, I don’t think that Lineker can pay off his $9,400 salary, and I could see Vera putting up a gritty defense, circling away from the big shots, and ultimately having this one in the judge’s hands. 

PICK: Lineker, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: Lineker (8.5/10): Lineker should have enough to handle Vera, but can he finish him and earn the points you need to pay off his high salary? 

GPP: Lineker (8/10): Lineker might be the one fighter on with the biggest gap between how low and high his ceiling is. I could see him scoring 75 points in a decision victory, and I could also see him scoring 110 points in a 1st round stoppage. 

Snapshot: 

Another bout that is straight FIRE! What a card! Really like this matchup here, as Jack Hermansson (-137, $8,300) takes on Thiago Santos (+112, $7,900) in this middleweight matchup. Hermansson is hot, coming off two very impressive victories in which he got a heavy top position, and ended up pounding out his opponents with some serious ground N pound. He has heavy hands, and his an awkward matchup for many, as he bounces around, switching stances, ready to throw strikes with a flinch of a single muscle. He seems to prefer to get his foes to the ground, and work his heavy top game to overwhelm them with heavy punches and nicely placed elbows. 

Santos is also a very heavy handed striker, with 10 of his 15 wins coming by way of KO. He has been overwhelmed on the ground by high level BJJ guys, but that’s not Hermansson, who is more of a wrestler, and has an impressive GNP game, but isn’t much of a threat to submit you. I think Santos will be too big to manhandle him on the ground, and Hermansson will have a tough time keeping the fight on the ground, giving him a chance to work his impressive top game. 

This is a very tough fight to call, and could really go either way. My numbers give Hermansson a slight edge, but not enough to feel confident in. I could see Hermansson getting caught on the way in, and falling victim to a quick TKO. I could also see him winning within 2 rounds due to a TKO stoppage. 

Flip a coin honestly, so I’ll most likely be avoiding this one in my most confident lines, and I’ll have some exposure to both fighters in GPP’s. 

PICK: Santos, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  N/A: Too close to call with any level of certainty.

GPP: Santos (7.5/10): Has a salary that will save you some cap space, and has a good chance of a quick victory, but also a good chance of a quick defeat.  Hermansson (7/10): Similar value. Whomever you feel most comfortable with, roll with! 

Snapshot: 

A lightweight bout has 21-5 Francisco Trinaldo ($8,600) taking on 28-10 Jim Miller ($7,600) in a very intriguing matchup. This fight is taking place under the UFC’s “Masters” division, as the 39 year old Brazilian will be throwing down with the 34 year old American. 

Miller is a solid wrestler with a very good grappling game. His striking is pretty basic, and he doesn’t pose much of a threat when it comes a potential KO from him. Trinaldo is also tough to hit, as he has good head movement, and throws with a lot of power and accuracy. 

This is a pretty easy fight for me to fade, so I won’t spend much time on it. Both fighters have pretty bad Inside the Distance props, and both have a game that tells me it goes to a decision without a ton of DK points being scored. Lets fade and move on. 

PICK: Trinaldo, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: 

Rob Font (-145, $8,700) will hook horns with Brazilian Pedro Munhoz (+125, $7,500) in this 135 pound fistacuffs. Font has gone 4-1 in his UFC run, and has proven to be a serious finisher, even at the highest level of the sport. Font also has a HUGE 7 inch reach advantage over Munhoz, which will likely have an impact on the strategy that Font tries to impose on his opponent. Font will want to keep this one standing, strike from range, and control where the fight takes place (Font wants center of the cage). He should be able to pick Munhoz apart as he charges into the pocket, taking strikes from Font as he retreats from Munhoz’s typical forward pressure. 

I like Font to keep his streak going in this one, but I don’t know if he’ll have enough to stop Munhoz before the final bell. If Font does stop him, then he should pay off his salary, which I think is slightly inflated. If it goes to a decision, Font will win, but it will be a low scoring affair. Love Font to win here, but I don’t love his salary, so I won’t be rostering him as much as I’d like. 

Font’s Fight IQ is definitely an advantage for him over Munhoz, and I suspect his cardio will be an advantage for him as well, especially if this fight gets late into the 2nd round or beyond. Font’s striking advantage will show even more as Munhoz’s cardio starts to come into questions. Like Font, just don’t like his salary. 

PICK: Font, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Font (7/10): I like Font’s odds of victory, but he is expensive, and not sure he earns his salary. 

GPP: Font (7.5/10): You have to give credence to Font’s history of finishing fights, and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here. 

Snapshot:  

The co-main event has 39 year old Demian Maia (+110, $8,000) taking on American Colby Covington (-134, $8,200) in this welterweight bout. Covington is an elite wrestler who has an impressive 7-1 record in the UFC, and has the makeup and potential to be a champion at some point in the near future. Covington fights at a high pace, and is an athletic stud, and this is what will frustrate Maia. 

Maia is arguably the best BJJ practitioner ever in the UFC, but he has never been able to improve his striking to a point where it’s been a factor in his fights, and his opponents would have to take note of it. Maia had a hell of a time trying to get wrestler, Tyron Woodley to the mat, and ultimately was his kryptonite in that fight for the strap. I think this fight may travel down the same road as Maia’s fight against Woodley. Covington is smart to understand he doesn’t want to grapple with Maia, so he’ll stuff the takedowns, circle away, and pill be selective with his striking, being sure not to leave himself open to a takedown. This type of fight will not be high scoring from a DK perspective, so I am going to have limited exposure to this fight, as I can foresee a slow paced, low-scoring affair. 

PICK: Covington, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Covington (6.5/10): I like his chances of victory, but his ceiling is pretty low, and there are  lot of question marks in this matchup. 

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: 

In the main event of the evening, Derek Brunson (-164, $8,400) takes on Lyoto Machida (+137, $7,800). Machida is 39 years old and coming off a 2 year layoff due to a PED suspension, so he has a lot of questions to answer in this one. Brunson is a heavy handed brawler who was on a tear before getting KO’ed by Robert Whittaker about a year ago. Since then, Brunson has dropped a decision to Anderson Silva, and a KO win over Daniel Kelly back in June. While Brunson does have some serious power in his hands, but his defense, and style of rushing in with his chin in the air, open for counter punching - exactly what Machida is good at. This could be a bad matchup for Brunson, but I feel that he has learned his lesson somewhat after the Whittaker KO using this tactic. We’ll have to see though. 

I do not like Machida too much in this spot, and I won’t be having much exposure to him. There are just way too many questions that we don’t know the answer to with him. The 2 year layoff is a killer, especially with a guy who is 39. My assumption is that he is on the decline, while I think Brunson is still near the top of his game. Do not take this as a vote of confidence for Brunson though, as I think his flaws exist, and could be exploited by a veteran striker like Machida. 

I could see Brunson catching Machida, and KO’ing him in the first two rounds, racking up some serious DFS points. Machida may also be agile enough to avoid the heavy strikes, consistently back peddling while throwing counters at an oncoming Brunson. It may go to a decision if Machida has the cardio to stay out of Brunson’s range. That’s a big “IF”, but I could see it happen. 

I’ll have some exposure to Brunson, and probably Machida in a contrarian LU or two. I’m not terribly confident in this one, but Brunson does have the power to be a high scorer in this one - Machida, not so much. His ceiling is much lower. 

PICK: Brunson, KO, 2nd

Cash Game: Brunson (6.5/10): Not incredibly confident in this one. 

GPP: Brunson (7/10): High ceiling, but also high ownership most likely. 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1