MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 216

On Saturday night, the UFC returns to its home base of Las Vegas, Nevada, but this return home for the organization is far from routine. Less than one week after a crazed gunman opened fire on a crowd of more than 22,000 people enjoying their Sunday night by taking in an outdoor concert in the heart of one of America’s most energetic cities, the UFC will open the doors to the T-Mobile Arena, and welcome in tens of thousands of fans.

Saturday night the T-Mobile Arena will be filled with violence, but not the same type of violence unleashed last Sunday night. The violence on display Saturday night will be professionally orchestrated, and the men and women in the cage will have a choice as to whether they would like to take part or not. The innocent victims of Sunday’s attack did not have a choice, and these people were unknowingly thrust into a fight for their lives; all because an insecure coward with no balls, brains, or heart decided that it was a good idea to spray bullets into a large crowd of unsuspecting people who came to Vegas to have a good time.

In my “perfect world” the shooter (I refuse to write his name and give him any type of credit whatsoever) would have been taken into custody alive, and would have been preserved for Saturday night’s UFC card. Before UFC 216 the suspect would be brought to the cage and locked inside. From there, every fighter on the card would have two minutes with him, delivering strikes in whichever manor they deemed necessary (grown strikes, eye gouges, headbutts, and everything else would be legalized for this “exhibition” match). After every fighter on the card got their two minutes with the shooter, then there would be a five minute period that would look similar to a “Royal Rumble” that happens in the WWE. Every fighter on the card would all be in the cage at the same time, but instead of it being an “every man for themselves” type of situation, every fighter on the card would be tasked with kicking the shit out of the concert shooter until, (A) he was dead or (B) the five minute period was up. Regardless, I would hope that the victims of the shooting and their loved ones would leave the T-Mobile Arena feeling fulfilled, and that they could lay their head down at night with some sort of closure of the event, and move on with their lives.

Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that the cowardice shooter took his own life as the SWAT team approached on Sunday night. The victims and their loved ones were not able to witness this insecure, weak person (who I hate even referring to as a “human being”) suffer like their loved ones did when he mowed them down with his illegal firearms. With that being said, Saturday night will showcase America and how wonderful this country is. It will allow talented individuals who have worked insanely hard to perfect their craft, display their skills of violence  to a worldwide audience, all the while, providing for their families and providing a temporary distraction to the city of Las Vegas (or any other city), and helping a community heal from one of the worst massacres in US history.

Violence is part of our existence. It’s part of our evolution as humans who have been fighting for survival since our neanderthal days, and since we were walking on all fours. Our brethren, who had a heavy brow and discovered the wheel, did not have guns or weapons. All that they brought to battle was their hands, feet, knees, elbows, huge foreheads, and most importantly….heart! They brought heart, passion, and integrity! Qualities that this asshat has never possessed, and didn’t have the slightest clue as to what they were. One, less violent, evil person now exists in this world, and on Saturday night - not too far from where the shootings took place, 26 talented, passionate, violent athletes will enter the cage and show the world what violent, professional athletes who are role models for our youth, truly look like! A great opportunity to push aside a violent, evil person, and usher in dozens of violent, upstanding, respectful athletes that have a positive impact on our society. Enjoy the fights for what they are, but please keep the dead and injured in your thoughts and prayers as the night progresses. Without further ado...let’s get into the fights!

Undercard

The first fight of the night pits American Matt Schnell against Marco Beltran, a 31 year old Mexican who currently stands at 2-3 in the UFC, and has been finished in his last 2 fights. The 27 year old Matt Schnell brings his 9-4 record into this contest, but has still yet to find his first victory under the UFC banner. He’s 0-2 in the UFC with 2 KO losses to Rob Font and Hector Sandoval. Earlier in Schnell’s career he was known as a finisher,

This is a pretty even fight when you break it down, and the bookies and DK feel the same way. Vegas has Schnell as a slight favorite at -123, and DK has his salary at $8,200. Schnell has solid striking, but his chin is pretty weak, and I’m not a huge fan of rostering fighters who are “chinny”. It’s a risk, but it also should keep his ownership down to some degree, and this is why I think I’ll be targeting this fight. Schnell has a more conducive style to scoring high when you look at the DK scoring formula. He’s aggressive, both on the feet and on the ground, and if he can land solid shots, and mix in some takedowns while controlling the fight and where it takes place, then I think he has a great opportunity to score 115+ points, and these are the guys you need to roster in GPP’s. Schnell scares the shit out of me when it comes to Cash games though! Fighter’s with chins like Schnell’s often don’t find themselves onto my Cash game rosters.

Both fighters Inside The Distance (ITD) props are in the top 3rd on this card, and their percentage of fights that go to a decision are some of the best on the card (Schnell = 17%, Beltran = 15%). Any time you are below 30%, you’re doing pretty well, especially for two guys who are in the lighter weight classes.

This is a risky fight to target, but I think Schnell could payoff nicely for you due to his fighting style, and his potential for scoring 100+ points (his ceiling is high) is higher than most on the card, but on the flip side of that, his floor is pretty damn low as well. He could get caught with a haymaker early on in the fight and be put to sleep. This would yield you a solid 2 - 10 points in DK, thus a very low floor to accompany his high ceiling, making Schnell a very interesting, but risky play.

PICK: Schnell, Sub, 2nd                                         

Cash Game: Schnell (6.5/10): Tough one here, as his chin makes his suseptable to being KO’ed, ad taking a dump on some of your Cash game LU’s.

GPP: Schnell (8/10): I like Schnell a lot more when it comes to GPP’s as, he’s got a high ceiling, and hopefully low ownership due to his chin issues. More to come! 

Oh man…..and now on to this fight….a battle of journeymen. Brad Tavares is a guy who has trained under Ray Sefo, the President of the former World Series of Fighting (WSOF) and now current President of the Professional Fighters League, and has been heralded as “the next big thing” for many years, but honestly, he’s disappointed for the majority of his career.

Thales Leites has had 18 UFC fights, and Brad Tavares has had 14 UFC fights! Yes, these dudes have had 32 UFC fights between the two of them!! Insane! If the UFC had one, this fight would be taking place under the “UFC Masters” banner, and quite possibly could be for a #1 contenders slot! I think this is my dream. For the UFC to create a “Masters Division” where Ken Shamrock could fight Kimo, or Paul Varelans could take on Dan Severn, or even more modern, Tito Ortiz taking on Randy Couture. People would love it, but it also may lead to in the cage deaths, and possibly routine defibrillator usage in the cage 

As you can tell by my tone, I’m not loving this matchup, and I’ll be avoiding it. This is a mid-tier price range fight, which can be helpful when constructing LU’s, but when you have two trash bags full of smashed penis’ fighting each other, it often makes for a sloppy, uneventful fight that has a slower pace to it. These guys don’t feel like they need to prove anything else to the UFC and Dana, so they fight at a different pace than when they were trying to prove themselves. I’d avoid if I were you, but the low ownership here, and questionable chins do make a possible perfect storm. The downside is that I can’t really back either of these horses, so you’d most likely find me on the sidelines just watching this one. Proceed with caution!

 PICK: Leites, TKO, 1st                               

Cash Game: N/A: Too risky for my blood.

GPP: N/A: Possibly a long shot roster of Leites or two, but if you’re only making a few LU’s, then ignore.

Megomed Bibulatov is a stud with a 14-0 record, and his Vegas line currently stands at -600, while DK priced him at $9,300. As a DK player, don’t consider Moraga unless you are playing a contrarian lineup. The issue here lies in whether Bibulatov can earn his salary back in points? We look for a 10x return on our fighters, and Bibulatov having a $9,300 price tag means that we are looking for at least 93 points return. Not always a guarantee, but with MB’s tyle, I think there shouldn’t be an issue with him securing 100+ points, even in a decision victory.

Here’s where you need to make a decision on whether you’d rather roster Bibulatov or Demetrious Johnson, because you can’t afford to roster them both. Yes, DJ has 5 rounds to rack up his points, and his incredibly active with his striking, takedowns, and overall pace, whereas Bibulatov on only 3 rounds to work with, and he’s battling a crafty veteran with 11 UFC fights under his belt, and you really never want to have an “off night” against someone with the credentials like Moraga.

DJ on the other hand has really never had an off night, and has constantly shown us that he can score 100+ points. In his last 5 fights, DJ has scored 162, 94, 11, 107, and 113. I’d take these scores any day of the week in my LU’s, so the question becomes: do you roster Bibulatov, or Johnson? You can’t afford both, so choose one, and enjoy the ride!

PICK: Bibulatov, Dec, Unanimous            

Cash Game: Bibulatov (9.5/10): Moraga’s craftiness keeps this from being a 10.

GPP: Bibulatov (9/10): Yup - high ceiling, high floor, and he’ll rack up some points. Enjoy.

Fight number 4 of the night has a couple heavyweights stepping into the cage to test whether the cage boys did their jobs or not, and put all the screws in the cage. If they missed one screw, and Godbeer and Harris just happen to throw themselves against the cage at that spot, then you best hope that the ring girls got their Sketchers on, and can scamper quickly out of the way!

As we all know, the HW division can be one with many question marks, but with a lot of upside. There isn’t another weight division that can sidetrack a killer DFS night by having  your big HW favorite that you need to hit and score 90+ points, fall on his sword, and set you on a path of multiple shots, an awful bet or two when you’re on tilt, and quite possibly taking one for the team and hooking up with the girl that everyone calls “Man-Face” at the party. This is what can happen to you if you choose the wrong heavyweight to back in your DK lineups - trust me.

I like Walt Harris here, but there isn’t another weight division that can flip your night upside down, so I’m always hesitant to roster big HW favorites, as anything can happen. With all that said, I will have small amount of exposure to Walt Harris, and also Godbeer, as his price tag will allow you to fill out your GPP roster nicely.

PICK: Harris, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Harris (6.5/10): Tough to roster with that price, and some risk due to his division. There are better options out there.

GPP: Harris (7.5/10): Nice upside here, but can’t rule out any other heavy-handed HW in today’s modern MMA game.

          Godbeer (7/10): I like him a few LU’s, especially a contrarian LU or two. I may even start contrarian lineup or two with Godbeer! Get it!

In the 5th fight of the night we have our first women’s fight of the night! These women only have 1 UFC fight between them, which is good and bad. The unknown typically keeps ownership levels pretty low, and this is a factor that we always want to keep in mind when constructing our lineups. The line has shifted here, and it has created some serious value in Botelho! I have Botelho as a -4 Value Rank, which basically means that her Vegas Odds rank on the card is 4 ranks higher than where her DK salary rank lies.

The line has shifted so much where Botelho is now the favorite at -140, but has an attractive price tag at $7,800. This is what is attracting me to this fight, because we need to take advantage when these odds present themselves in this manor, as a -4 variance in ranks between Vegas and DK is BIG. Combine that with many “common” UFC and DK fans not knowing who either of these fighters are, then you have a lower ownership for both fighters than what they should be.

I also like this weight class, as you typically see women in this weight class throwing with extremely high output, and the FightMetric scorers usually count their strikes as “significant”, when many people watching on TV or sitting cageside would not consider their strikes “impactful” or damage inflicting. These lighter fighters also have the gas tanks that the heavier weight classes don’t have, meaning that they can transition from a takedown, to striking, to a submission attempt, and back to striking without blinking an eye. In this scenario these lighter weight class fighters have scored 8-12 DK points, where the traditional heavyweight is gassed after the 1st takedown attempt and need to lay on top of his opponent like a wet blanket for 15-20 seconds before he can plan to make his next move. Output is incredibly important in DFS MMA, and these lighter weight classes (male and female) give us plenty of opportunity to score some serious points! You should always consider rostering these lighter weight class fighters, especially when it comes to unknown female fighters, as their ownership levels will be lower than they should be.

PICK: Botelho, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Botelho (7/10): No guarantee of victory here, but you have some great value that you need to capitalize on, and the upside is very attractive!

GPP: Botelho (8.5/10): This is a risky one here, but she frees up some cap space, has a high ceiling, and should be low owned. All nice characteristics of a solid GPP roster. The only question mark, and it’ s a big one, is whether or not she can pull out the victory? This causes her floor to be lower than we’d like, but it’s worth the risk in GPP formats.

Ok, this one is a pretty simple one to consider when looking at fighters who you could see on your rosters. Bobby Green is not one you should consider, as his style is not one that leads you to believe that he could compile many DK points. He’s a wrestler at heart who doesn’t have the highest striking output. Vannata on the other hand I have as ranked in the top 5 when it comes to projected point output. This does not take into account Green’s style, which may slow down Vannata a bit, but regardless, I really like Vannata’s style, and how it meshes well with the DK scoring system. This is also another example of the general public not have a solid understanding of who Vannata is, and what his upside is, leaving him lesser owned than he should be.

I’ll be targeting Vannata is both formats, and will be using him where it makes sense. I won’t have any exposure to Green, because if he even wins, it will be may be a 55-60 point victory, and we did come here to mess around with those half century scoring failures! Go hard or go home!

PICK: Vannata, Dec, Unanimous  

Cash Game: Vannata (7/10): I think he wins, but he’s higher priced than I would have liked to see.

GPP: Vannata (7/10): His scoring ability comes into question with how well Green can impose his will. If Vannata keeps it standing, and uses his flashy spin kicks, then this could be a night filled with DK points, but if Green can get him to the ground and lay N pray, then it could be a long night.

Fight # 7 of the night is a very interesting one, because the books and DK don’t seem to be on the same page when handicapping this one. Tom Duquesnoy (TD moving forward) has a $9,100 price tag, and you’d think he’d have a betting line of somewhere near -300 or more, but that’s not the case at all, as he currently stands at -153! Looking at the Value Odds in this one, Stamann has a -6 Rank Value in this one, which is the biggest on the card, and a number you rarely see.

The public is going crazy on this one, and they are seeing a TON of value in Stamann, and many people think that he’ll be able to control the fight, and get TD down to the mat whenever he’d like to. I just don’t see this fight playing out like this though. TD’s takedown defense is underrated, and he does a very good job of getting back to his feet when taken down. TD also is a very good scrambler, and I think in this fight scrambling will be a very important aspect of this fight, and I give TD an advantage in that world.

TD has some serious striking skills, and has a good chance of ending this one before the final bell with his striking. Stamann also has a chance of getting the fight to the ground, but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep the fight there. You also need to keep in mind that the public is going to be all over Stamann due to his odds value being at -6! So what does this mean to us? It means we should fade Stamann. Yes, he’s got some serious odds value, but the public will be all over this, and his ownership will be higher than it should be, and just like in betting against the bookies, you often times want to be on the opposite side of the public, and that’s a big reason why I’ll be looking to roster TD. On top of that I also think he’s a much better fighter, and will be able to end this fight before the final bell due to his vicious striking. Yes, we are ignoring the odds value presented here, but when it comes down to it, you need your fighters to score points, and TD has a much better chance of doing this than Stamann does, so you’ll see me rostering TD a lot, and you’ll also see me betting heavy on him against the house as well, as I think there is some serious betting value in that -153 line of TD!

On top of all of these other factors pointing me towards TD, my DK algorithm, which has turned out to be pretty accurate, also has TD as one of the top 3-5 DK plays on the night! This projects that TD will be one of the 5 highest scoring DK fighters on the card, and this gives me even more confidence in rostering him!

PICK: Duquesnoy, KO, 2nd

Cash Game: Duquesnoy (8.5/10): I think he has high upside, and has a much better chance of victory than what the odds tell us.

GPP: Duquesnoy (9/10): Yes, his price tag is a little high, but Stamann’s ownership will be way over inflated, and if TD goes out and throws up a 100+ points performance, then we just got a HUGE headstart on the rest of these big GPP fields. Need to plan your salary cap accordingly though, as you’ll have to pay for this anti-public play with a high ceiling - a rarity in our DFS MMA lives these days! I may also roster Stamann as a contrarian play where I’m trying to get a couple big priced fighters in my GPP LU.

Main Card

I really like this matchup here, as we have two very exciting Lightweights in this matchup. Dariush is a well-rounded fighter who has grown exponentially in the cage since his debut in January of 2014. Most recently, Dariush was KO’ed by Edson Barboza back in March, and this could be a sign of things to come, as he has been rocked in many of his other fights that he hasn’t been KO’ed in, and you can tell that his chin is not one that you should have much confidence in. As a fan of his, I find myself often watching his fights and cringing when his opponent lands heavy shots on his chin, because you can see him get rocked, and try and gather himself over the next 15-20 seconds, and this seems to happen quite often in his fights. As you know, I really don’t like rostering fighters with questionable chins, because all it takes is a short punch that was mostly blocked, and the next thing you know your boy is staring up at the arena lights.

Evan Dunham has had 17 fights inside the cage, and is known for his gritty, grinding style that tests even the toughest fighter’s fortitude. I love Dunham’s style! He’s in your face, never backing down, and willing to sacrifice his health for the opportunity to win, and to entertain his fans! Yes, his last 4 fights have all been wins that have gone to the judges scorecards, but I’m fine with that. Dunham has a $7,200 salary, and with a salary like that we don’t need a stoppage, or even a high output fighter that scores 100+ points. We only need a decision victory, and we’d be happy with that! Give me my 70-85 points, and I’ll ride into the sunset with a shirtless Evan Dunham on the back of my steed! In GPP’s we need 6 wins, meaning you’re probably getting 2-3 wins from ‘dogs on the card, and it really doesn’t matter how many points are generated by thos dog victories, just as long as they are victories (and your high priced guys step up and score). Dnham is one of the few “live dogs” on the card, and we’ll need him to come through for us come Saturday night in order to win our GPP’s!

PICK: Dunham, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Dunham (7/10): Good opportunity to save some salary, but also giving yourself a legit shot at victory.

GPP: Dunham (8.5/10): I like Dunham here, as he has a good shot at winning as a dog, and we need some of those in GPP’s. Ceiling may be low, but that’s fine with a $7,200 price tag!

Here’s a fight between two debuting fighters in the UFC, and both are taking the fight on short notice, one on super-short notice (less than a week). There isn’t much to know about these two fighters, which makes me nervous, and if you know my style, then you know that I typically do not invest heavily in fighters that I don’t know much about. I’d rather put my money/roster spots with fighters that I have some idea as to what they’ll do, and what their style. With that being said, I’m going to keep my distance from this one, and watch from afar. I may have a little bit of exposure to Faria, just because she has stopped her opponents in a variety of ways over the years, and she has fought much better competition than Borella. Faria could come out and dominate within the 1st 3 minutes and stop the fight, which would be a solid DK point night, but she does have an $8,900 salary, so it will be tough to pay that off, especially with so many question marks. Too risky for me. 

PICK: Faria, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Fight number 10 is an interesting matchup, pitting Fabricio Werdum against The Black Beast - Derrick Lewis. Werdum is a well rounded fighter who has a great submission game, but he doesn’t have a great wrestling game to get his fights to the ground, making his submission game irrelevant unless he does get that takedown. Lewis isn’t kidding anyone when he enters the cage, and he’ll tell you exactly what his game plan is: he’ll throw hands like you’ve never seen, and if one of them lands, then it’s lights out! Lewis has some of the heaviest hands in the UFC, and if he’s able to corner his pray and land a shot or two, then he’s got a real good chance of winning via vicious KO!

Werdum has a high FightIQ (much higher than Lewis’), and you know how I feel about FightIQ, and how it applies to DK scoring. I think that the odds of Werdum keeping his distance, letting Lewis chase him and gas, is pretty good, but all it takes is Lewis to land ONE punch, and it’s over. When it comes down to it, I don’t think Werdum will be able to run forever without confronting Lewis, and if Lewis is able to use his angles, cut the cage off, and not chase Werdum around the cage, then I think Lewis has a very good chance of landing that ONE big shot to end it. If Lewis does not cut off the cage, and he chases Werdum around the cage, then he will gas early, and Wedum will be able to have his way with leg kicks, jabs, and eventually, will be able to get the fight to the ground and lock up a submission. A lot of ifs here, but Wedum’s FightIQ is high, and I have a lot of confidence in FightIQ!

If Werdum wants to test his striking against Lewis’ (which I don’t think he will), then I think it will be a short night. The only way that Werdum will be able to play with Lewis on the feet is by delivering hard leg kicks, and getting out of dodge. Werdum will have to jump in, throw a heavy leg kick, and then will have to retreat back out of Lewis’ striking distance. As we’ve seen in previous fights, Lewis hates getting kicked in the legs, and he has absolutely no desire to check leg kicks thrown his way either. He’s either banking on landing an overhand right as a leg kick is thrown by his opponent, or he’s confident that his legs will hold up enough to corner his pray and land the haymaker that he’s so famous for!

PICK: Lewis, KO, 1

Cash Game: Lewis (7/10): Don’t have a high level of confidence that he’ll win, but I like his style and ability to land heavy shots.

                      Werdum (8/10): I think I like Werdum better in a Cash game, but they both still have value. Use your gut with this one.

GPP: Lewis (9/10): I like Lewis in GPP’s, as he most likely will win within the 1st frame, which means 100+ points pretty easily. His salary is attractive too, but you just need to gamble with the chance of losing the fight outright.                           

          Werdum (7/10): Don’t like Werdum here as much, as his salary is high, no guarantees of victory, and if he does win, it could be ugly, long, and low scoring.

Snapshot:

Alright, alright, alright…..here we are. The pound for pound best fighter in the world, Demetrious Johnson, comes in with a $9,700, and is an incredible -1100 favorite! Wow! Not sure if I’ve ever seen a UFC line like that (maybe Rowsey vs. Holm?). DJ will be able to have his way, will have a very high output, and will score 120+ points for your LU’s. I desperately want DJ in my LU’s, but his salary makes it difficult to roster, and have a well-rounded roster. This is a pretty simple one to handicap - if you can afford him, get him in your LU’s! In Cash games, don’t be scared to stack this one, and roster both Borg and DJ, as Borg’s $6,500 salary will allow you to roster some other solid fighters.

PICK: DJ, Sub, 4th

Cash Game: DJ (10/10): Stack if u want. I probably will.

GPP: DJ (9/10): His salary is the only thing keeping him from being a 10/10.

Snapshot:

Here we are, the main event of the evening, and man is it a good one! Tony Ferguson, who is 12-1 in the UFC, is taking on Kevin Lee, who is 9-2 in the UFC. Ferguson is very well rounded, and has many different ways to end this fight, whereas Lee doesn’t have as many weapons and ways to end this fight as Ferguson does. Lee loves to get his opponents back, and eventually lock in a choke to end the fight. The bad news for Lee about this is that Ferguson does not give up his back, and he will not put himself in this position, which makes it that much more difficult for Lee to claim victory.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Lee is a pretty big dude, and he had a difficult time making weight. Ferguson typically pushes the pace, and is in his opponents face from start to finish. With Lee’s muscular build, and Ferguson’s pace, I foresee that Lee will find himself gassing quicker than expected. You’ve always seen these muscle-bound fighters gas after throwing serious haymakers, and grappling using muscle and power and not so much technique. I think that this is how this fight will play out. Lee will come out hard, but will gas by the midpoint of the 2nd round, and this is when Ferguson will start to take over, will pick him apart on the feet, and will eventually get the TKO victory in the 3rd round. Mark my words!

PICK: Ferguson, TKO, 3rd 

Cash Game: Ferguson (9/10): Love it!      

GPP: Ferguson (9.5/10): I think the ceiling is high, the odds of victory are high, and the 110+ possible points are high!     

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

GPP 2