UFC 213: Nunes vs. Shevchenko

 

Our fulfillment of weekly brutality did not happen last week, so the UFC made sure that they made up for it this week with two solid events in two days! Saturday night’s event is by far the more talent-laden of the two, but that is expected when you’re paying nothing for one, and $60 for the other. Without further ado, below is a breakdown of each fight on the card, and where we see some value from a DraftKings perspective. Get your hard hats out!

 

Undercard

 

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Trevin Giles

Vs.

James Bochnovic

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

0

Record

8

1

0

0

UFC Record

0

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-310

Vegas Odds

255

11%

% Fights to Dec

0%

0

# of UFC Fights

0

 

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night showcases two debuting UFC fighters. James Bochnovic is a fighter who likes to make his opponent follow him into an ugly rhythm of fighting. He wants to dirty box, get in the pocket, and make it an ugly tango from a fan’s perspective. He currently stands at 8-1 with 7 first round submissions in his last 7 fights - most coming by way of rear-naked choke.

Trevin Giles on the other hand is a fairly athletic fighter who likes to use his speed, agility, superior scrambling, and heavy hands to dictate what transpires in his affairs. Giles throws heavy leather, but he’s also a fighter who’s been tagged and wobbled himself many-a-times in some of the wild exchanges that he often finds himself in.

Giles is a pretty big favorite at -310, and his $9k DK salary reflects this. I don’t see much value here, and with two debuting fighters, I’m not going to invest much on either side here. Giles’ resume tells me that he should handle Bochnovic in the end, but his chin isn’t the sturdiest for a 9 fight pro, and as you know, this is Mixed Martial Arts, and anything can happen in MMA. Do you feel confident investing $9,000 in a guy who has a penchant for being dropped in his fights? Nope.

PICK: Giles, Sub, 2nd                                             

Cash Game: Giles (6/10): Too much risk here for the price tag, but I do think he scores nicely if he wins. The -310 line is too much IMO.

GPP: Giles (7/10): I like his chances of scoring 100+, but his price tag and numerous question marks (chin specifically) make this a tough one to pull the trigger on.

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Terrion Ware

Vs.

Cody Stamann

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

5

Record

13

1

0

0

UFC Record

0

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

1

$7,100

DK Salary

$9,100

235

Vegas Odds

-275

45%

% Fights to Dec

50%

0

# of UFC Fights

0

 

Snapshot:

The 2nd bout of the night once again has two fighters debuting in the UFC, and when you are looking to construct your DK lineups you really need to take into account the unknown in these debuting fighters. Yes, you can often find film of these fighters online when they were competing on the regional scene. This gives you an idea of how they move and flow in the cage, but it doesn’t tell you much about how they will perform against top notch competition, and on the biggest stage in the MMA world. When there are a dozen cameras focused on them, and close to a million people watching them compete online and on TV, you never know how they will react. This is a mind-fuck more than anything, and if these guys aren’t mentally tough, then they could be in for a long night. UFC jitters are a real thing, so you need to take this into account when handicapping these fights, and rostering these debuting guys.

This is an interesting matchup which pits Cody Stamann and his $9,100 salary against Terrion Ware and his $7,100 salary in this Featherweight scrap. Stamann brings his 13-1 record compiled on the regional scene over the last 6 years into the UFC cage. Stamann is stocky and athletic. He is an orthodox striker who is a solid chain wrestler, but also has a solid striking game that is often setup through an annoyance of leg kicks that his opponent starts to focus on more and more as the fight progresses. Stamann is often comfortable forcing his foe against the cage, and working his short strikes that often help him set up his takedowns.

Ware on the other hand is predominantly a boxer by trade, but he’s crafty, and will lock up a submission when give the opportunity. Ware has a +755 Inside the Distance prop (odds of finishing the fight inside the distance), and this is one of the worst on the card, so the oddsmakers aren’t expecting Ware to be able to stop Stamann before the final bell, and I tend to agree here. I think Stamann’s athleticism, and huge overall size and strength advantage will prove to be too much for Ware to handle.

A stat to consider: 45% of Ware’s pro fights have gone to decision, and 50% of Stamann’s fights have gone to decision. These aren’t ideal stats when you are looking for stoppages within your DK lineups. But keep in mind, these lighter weight classes have racked up serious points in contests that have gone to a decision, so long as there is a high output of strikes and a mix of takedowns with advances on the ground.

Does this fight have the makeup to rack up some DK points for our rosters? I don’t think many DFS MMA handicapper’s would put themselves out there and say “yes” to that question, but I will. I think the makeup of Stamann’s game, in combination with Ware’s weaknesses, could give us a high point scoring decision victory for Cody Stamann. On the flip side, Stamann could find early success getting this one to the mat, and he may be happy just hanging out in top position, delivering short punches and elbows, working just enough to prevent the ref from standing them up. This would be the worst case scenario, and this is a BIG question mark surrounding this fight, which is preventing me from having a more confident stance on this one. The problem is that he’s not a cheap date, but I don’t think he’ll be very highly owned.

PICK: Stamann, Dec, Unanimous                           

Cash Game: Stamann (8/10): I like his odds of winning, even if it is by decision. His price tag isn’t cheap, but he could be the low owned Live Dog that you need to make it rain!

GPP: Stamann (7/10): I think he’ll be fairly low owned, but you’ll have to pay for him.                

 

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Rob Font

Vs.

Douglas Silva de Andrade

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

2

Record

24

1

3

1

UFC Record

2

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-335

Vegas Odds

276

40%

% Fights to Dec

20%

4

# of UFC Fights

3

 

Snapshot:

New Englander Rob Font takes on the Brazilian, Douglas Silva de Andrade in this Bantamweight clash. This could be the show stealer of the night! I really like this matchup, and it could deliver with fireworks that end the fight quickly, or it could be a striking battle that goes the distance and displays quickness and technique against sheer power. Only time will tell, but this will be one that I will make sure not to miss.

Font has had a pretty impressive 4 fight run in the UFC so far, putting together a 3-1 record with his only loss coming against the impressively powerful striker, John Lineker, taking him the distance in the decision loss. His 3 wins in the Octagon of come by way of KO or TKO, dispatching George Roop, Joey Gomez, and Matt Schnell most recently. Font has crisp, clean Muay Thai that has been honed for many years by Cru Mark Dellagrotte in Boston. Font is peaking at the right time, but Vegas and DK are noticing, so there isn’t much value to expose here.

Andrade has some heavy hands that can put any man to sleep, but Font has a very high Fight IQ, and he won’t let himself get sucked into Andrade’s world of KO inducing power punches. Andrade has only fought twice since February of 2014, and this is something to be concerned about if you are an Andrade fan. His inactivity will not be a benefit to him in this matchup. Font’s diverse MMA game gives him many more weapons to attack with, while Andrade will have to rely on connecting on something heavy, and putting Font to sleep, but I just don’t see that happening. I think the Font hype-train continues to chug along, but unfortunately he is in a division that is filled with killers, and this very intriguing battle will be broadcast on FightPass because of this.

PICK: Font, Sub, 3rd                                   

Cash Game: Font (9/10): I really like Font here, but you’ll have to pay up to roster him. I feel confident in his ability to win the bout due to his Fight IQ and overall superior technique in almost every facet of the game. I think he’s got a pretty high ceiling too, as he is often active, and likes to have a high tempo to his fights.

GPP: Font (8/10): The high price tag, and high ownership keep me from ranking him higher than an 8. High ceiling and high likelihood of victory are both present here.

Andrade (7/10): He is worth rostering as a contrarian play in a GPP lineup, as he won’t be very highly owned, he’s cheap, and his ceiling is pretty damn high due to his power.

 

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Jordan Mein

Vs.

Belal Muhammad

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

29

11

Record

11

2

3

3

UFC Record

2

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

110

Vegas Odds

-130

25%

% Fights to Dec

62%

6

# of UFC Fights

4

 

Snapshot:

The 4th fight of the night is an intriguing matchup that can really go either way. Belal “Remember The Name” Muhammad made his UFC debut exactly one year ago today, taking on Alan Jouban with his undefeated record at 9-0, but he ended up coming up a bit short in his decision loss. Muhammad has been very active in the recent past, as Saturday night’s fist-a-cuffs will be his 6th fight (5 of them in the UFC) since April 30th, 2016.

Belal enters the cage as a slight favorite (-130) over his 27 year old Canadian counterpart, Jordan Mein (+110). Both have an $8,100 DK salary, and I foresee the general public seeing some line value in Muhammad as he is a slight favorite according to Vegas, but his DK price tag tells a slightly different story. Due to this, I think we’ll see a pretty high ownership percentage.

Muhammad brings a +210 Inside the Distance prop line, which is middle of the pack for this card, but his 62% decision rate is the worst on the card, and is something that scares me to comes degree. Belal was also brutally KO’ed back in November by Vicente Luque, and you have to ask yourself if this will play a factor, and if his chin has completely recovered and can take the same punishment as it did prior to his lights being shut off back in November.

Jordan Mein was a rising young star, but his hype train was derailed back in December of 2015 by a vicious body kick from Thiago Alves. This loss caused him to announce his retirement at the ripe old age of 24! Well, he couldn’t sit on the sideline for long, as the fire that burns inside him was reignited, and he came out of retirement in December of 2016, losing a Unanimous Decision to Emil Meek.

This is a tough one to call, as Mein has looked unstoppable in the cage before against stiff competition, but he has also looked like he doesn’t belong in the UFC in recent fights as well. I’ll chalk up his prior loses to ring rust, and his time away. Muhammad has a questionable chin now that it has been tested by upper-echelon strikers in recent months. If Mein can dictate the pace of the fight, and not let Muhammad consistently press the action, then I foresee him landing significant strikes at will, and if his power strikes find their mark on his chin, Muhammad will be in for a long, but short, painful night that will eventually have Mein standing in the center of the Octagon with his hand raised as Belal crawls around on all fours looking for his teeth to pick up.

I like this fight in all formats due to both fighter’s styles’, the odds of the fight ending sooner rather than later, and their price tags are very attractive at $8,100! You best be getting some of this one!

PICK: Mein, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Mein (8/10): I like his high ceiling a lot, as he most likely wins via TKO (or KO), as well as his reasonable price tag of $8,100.

GPP: Mein (8.5/10): High ceiling, high floor, cheapish price tag, and reasonable ownership. All of these factors combined make for a solid option in GPP’s! His odds of victory aren’t as high as I’d like to see them, but we’ll take it while we can get it!

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Gerald Meerschaert

Vs.

Thiago Santos

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

26

8

Record

14

5

2

0

UFC Record

6

4

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,700

DK Salary

$8,500

135

Vegas Odds

-155

9%

% Fights to Dec

26%

2

# of UFC Fights

10

 

Snapshot:

Gerald Meerschaert has made a name for himself in his brief UFC career. In his two UFC bouts, he’s successfully taken out his opponents via an Armbar and an Anaconda Choke in a combined 5:46 of total fight time! ! Not only is he tossing his foes aside like soiled underwear, but he’s also well spoken on the mic, mocking the other Light Heavyweight fighters for taking him to the ground, and thinking that they could compete with him there. Cue the smug smile!

I’ll admit, the guy has been impressive so far, but there is something about him that I really dislike, and I can’t quite pinpoint it! But this is exactly what GM3 (his stupid nickname), and the UFC wants; people to watch because of either hatred or envy. Meerschaert has done a very good job so far with building the foundation to his UFC career, but his first real challenge steps into the cage with him on Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Thiago Santos looks as if he was chiseled from a piece of granite, and his approach to preparing for upcoming opponents is very similar to how that piece of granite would prepare for a fight. Santos doesn’t care much for what his foe’s tendencies are, as recently quoted - “I don’t really like to watch tape on my opponents, I leave that to my coaches….I’ll stuff his takedowns and hurt him. I’ll even tell him, if he wants. Stuffing the takedowns and hurting him. That’s the gameplan. I’ll look for the knockout.”

There ya have it. Fight’s over. Give Santos 120+ points and lets call it a night! Not so fast! This line has tightened up to Meerschaert +135, and Santos -155. I think people have seen Meerschaert’s skills on the ground, and combine that with the fact that he’s never been KO’ed in his 34 professional fights! That’s impressive. Add in that same time period he’s only had 3 of those 34 fights go to a decision! This is a guy you want to target in all formats, especially once I tell you his his price tag! Gerald Meerschaert can be owned by you for the low, low price of $7,700! Ownable in all formats at this price tag.

Still not sold? Well, chew on a few of these tidbits: 7 wins in a row, 6 of those wins were stoppages in the 1st round, 5 of those were by submission, and the past 4 wins have all come by submission in the 1st round. Meerschaert’s average fight time of 2:53 is lowest on the card. His striking defense is stellar, avoiding 71% of his opponent’s strikes, and only absorbing 1.39 strikes per minute! As the final cherry on top, Meerschaert attempts 5.2 submissions every 15 minutes! By far the best on the card (1.2/15 min is 2nd)!

With all of these factors coming into play, Vegas still sees Santos as a -150 favorite over Meerschaert, but I see this closer to a pick ‘em. My DK algorithm has Meerschaert as the 4th ranked DFS fighter on the card, and Santos as the 10th ranked DFS fighter on the card! Take it for what it’s worth, as these rankings do not take into account the emotional and mental aspects of the fight game, and we all know that these can definitely play a factor in output and performance in the end.

Ok, enough beating around the bush. This is a tough one to ‘cap, as you could make an argument for either side here. Santos’ heavy hands make him a frightening foe to roster a fighter against, but there are many arguments to consider Meerschaerts over Santos, and I outline them nice and orderly above! I think Meerschaert’s is a live dog that can save you some salary cap space, while also providing you some serious upside based on his recent results, and his skills on the mat.

His ownership percentage could go either way, IMO. The common participant/fan, won’t be rostering him due to his unknown status, and being showcased on the undercard. I think the hardcore fan will see the value here, and will label Meerschaert a “Live Dog”. We’ll see!

PICK: Meerschaert, Submission, 1st

Cash Game: Meerschaert (7/10): High upside & salary saver, but his negatives are - victory odds aren’t as high as I’d like to see, and his floor is pretty low with the heavy-handed Santos, and his potential for a KO.

GPP: Meerschaert (9/10): High upside, attractive salary, ownership could be tempered.

Santos (6/10): High upside, but too many other ?’s.

 

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Chad Laprise

Vs.

Brian Camozzi

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

2

Record

7

3

4

2

UFC Record

0

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,300

DK Salary

$6,900

-700

Vegas Odds

500

46%

% Fights to Dec

20%

6

# of UFC Fights

1

 

Snapshot:

Chris Camozzi’s little brother jumps into the cage for his 2nd UFC battle. Camozzi is tall (6’3”), and he needs to use his length, and 7 inch reach advantage over Chad Laprise in order to have a chance here. I’m going to buzz through this fight quickly, as I will not be targeting this one much at all. I may have a small dabble of Laprise in a GPP lineup or two, but for the most part, this fight is a good one to take a bathroom break and grab a cold one!

PICK: Laprise, Decision, Unanimous                      

Cash Game: Laprise (5/10): Don’t love it, but he’ll score well I think.

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

255

Travis Browne

Vs.

Alexey Oleynik

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

18

6

Record

50

10

9

6

UFC Record

3

1

1

4

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,600

DK Salary

$7,600

-220

Vegas Odds

180

17%

% Fights to Dec

13%

15

# of UFC Fights

4

 

Snapshot:

Travis Browne has been a busy man lately! He recently proposed to long-time girlfriend Rhonda Rousey, and he’s also been preparing for his upcoming UFC 213 bout against Alexey Oleynik, the 40 year old Russian who currently holds a 51-10 record with 41 of his 51 victories coming by way of submission! Some people just don’t know when to say when! I would put Alexey with MMA, Donald Trump with Twitter, and Bill Cosby with Women in the same boat! It’s time to face the music and hang ‘em up.

Travis Browne was on the verge of title contention back in 2013, but his train was derailed by Fabricio Werdum, and he hasn’t been able to get his swag back since - going 2-5 in the last 3 years! Some would argue that his career was mismanaged by continuously being thrown in the UFC cage with the biggest and best they have to offer (Werdum x2, Arlovski, Velasquez, Derrick Lewis), but it’s tough to duck and dodge your way through the UFC’s shallow HeavyWeight division. Unfortunately, Browne turned out on the losing end with a concussion after most of these battles.

The UFC as finally given “Happa” Browne a chance to catch his breath and get his feet underneath him. This will be his last chance to get his career on track , as the 40 year old wrestler shouldn’t be able to knock out Browne, which is the last thing he needs right now, and he should have a very difficult time getting Browne to the ground too, as he has some of the best takedown defense in the division, stopping 83% of takedown attempts on him! I don’t think the 40 year old will have much more for the 6’7” Browne.

Oleynik will be forced to shoot from too far outside, thus opening up the Russian to eating Browne’s lethal knees and elbows. This one could get bloody and ugly quick! Browne has some of the best ancillary odds on the card, and you cannot ignore these when evaluating the card as a whole: Inside the Distance prop (-140), Odds to Win in the 1st Rnd (+150), and overall the Fight not going the distance (-610). All this, and he only garners an $8,600 price tag! I like the value here at $8,600, but if he can’t stop Oleynik within the 1st frame (or 2nd round with heavy output), then I’m not sure he is such a good investment.

PICK: Browne, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Browne (8/10): I think he’s a pretty safe bet to win (-220), and has a high ceiling.

GPP: Browne (9/10): High ceiling, reasonable salary, , and high floor (IMO), but his ownership will be very high, reducing his GPP value to some degree.

 

Main Card

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Anthony Pettis

Vs.

Jim Miller

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

6

Record

28

9

6

5

UFC Record

17

8

1

4

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,900

DK Salary

$7,300

-230

Vegas Odds

190

32%

% Fights to Dec

43%

11

# of UFC Fights

25

 

Snapshot:

Anthony Pettis makes his way back to the LightWeight division after a 2 fight stop over at 145. The weight cut was too much for him, and the results in the cage weren’t there either. He found his way back to ld reliable, and hopefully he’s closed the gaps in his game with Duke Rufous. This is an interesting matchup, as a few years ago you could have said that Anthony Pettis was one of the best PFP fighters in the world, and Jim Miller was on the verge of being bounced out of the UFC due to losing 4 out of 5 fights, but he’s found a resurgence in his career once his Lyme Disease was properly diagnosed and treated! It’s amazing what good doctors can do!

This is an interesting matchup that I am very curious to see how it unfolds. These are two savvy vets who know their way around an Octagon. I think Miller’s resurgence will make this fight much closer than the books opened it up at, and in my opinion, much closer than the current -230 that Pettis sits at! Jim Miller at almost 2 to 1 is a great deal, and something I’ll be hopping on ASAP before it moves in the wrong direction.

Pettis at $8,900 on DK is overpriced. I see some value in Miller’s price at $7,300, and he can be a solid option to save some salary cap, while also throwing a “Live Dog” into the mix, and hopefully walking away with a win! I think Perris’ struggles continue, and Miller makes this a grinding affair that does not suit his game well at all. Make it ugly, Miller, and this one’s yours!

PICK: Miller, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Miller (6/10): It’s a coin flip for victory, so not ideal when creating your Cash LU, but he’s a great resource to save some salary cap.

GPP: Miller (8.5/10): You gotta find those Live Dogs somewhere, and they need to hit for you. I like our chances here.

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

231

Fabricio Werdum

Vs.

Alistair Overeem

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

6

Record

42

15

9

3

UFC Record

7

4

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,800

DK Salary

$8,400

105

Vegas Odds

-125

33%

% Fights to Dec

12%

12

# of UFC Fights

11

 

Snapshot:

We now move on to the UFC’s Masters Division where 39 year old Fabricio Werdum takes on the 37 year old Alistair Overeem! This is the 3rd time that these two behemoths have fought. Werdum took the 1st matchup back in 2006, and Overeem took the rematch in 2011. Nowadays when people describe this “Rubber Match” , they think of the rubber tennis balls on the bottom of both their walkers, and not the heavy leather that these two used to throw at each other.

This is a Heavyweight bout that has a high likelihood of someone going to sleep, and for this reason, I’ll have a small amount of exposure on this fight. I think Overeem is the better fighter right now, and I think his striking is still crisp and heavy enough that he will be able to land a few solid shots before Werdum can get his hands on ‘Reem. If Wedum does get his hands on Overeem before those heavy shots land, then there is a good chance that Werdum can eventually lock up a tap-inducing submission.

Tough one to call, as age puts many things in question. There is one thing that we do know for certain though: Old Man Time waits for no one, and this surely is the case with these two MMA legends. Like I said, if Overeem can keep his distance, and avoid Werdum getting his hands on him, then he’s got a great shot at eventually landing that heavy shot that puts the Brazilian to sleep, but if Werdum can get a hold of the Dutchman, and force the fight to the ground, then there is a very good shot of the Brazilian winning this Masters Division bout!

PICK: Overeem, TKO, 2nd 

Cash Game: Overeem (6.5/10): Still a chance he could lose, and he’s not the cheapest salary on the board, but he’s a mid-tiered guy who has solid upside with his heavy hands.

GPP: Overeem (7.5/10): Again, he could rack up some points if he stays out of the grasp of Werdum. Salary is about middle of the road, and I think his ownership will be middle of the road as well, so roster away!

Werdum (6/10): I’ll have a little exposure here just because it’s a HW clash where anything can happen with 4 ounce gloves.                       

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

265

Curtis Blaydes

Vs.

Daniel Omielanczuk

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

1

Record

19

7

2

1

UFC Record

4

4

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,500

DK Salary

$6,700

-740

Vegas Odds

520

0%

% Fights to Dec

50%

3

# of UFC Fights

8

 

Snapshot:

We’ll keep fight #10 short and sweet, as it really doesn’t take too much analysis to properly and fully handicap this one. Curtis “Razor” Blaydes opened up as a -400 favorite over Daniel Omielanczuk, but that line grew to -900 before settling back down to where we are now around -740! Blaydes has gone 2-1 in the UFC, but his only defeat was a doctor stoppage due to a cut that was caused by Fancis Ngannou. This is important to point out, as Blaydes was not KO’ed by Ngannou, and that is not something anyone else that he has faced can say! It’s a victory in and of itself.

Blaydes has a strong wrestling base that allows him to ragdoll large men, and with the new DK scoring system, a fighter who can repeatedly get takedowns, advance position, get back up, get another takedown, and continues to do this throughout 3 or 5 rounds, then they will score “biggley”! Blaydes should have no problem racking up 100+ points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in the 120-130 range when it’s all said and done! He’s worth the $9,500, but I just hope something flukey doesn’t happen. If that fluke does happen, and Blaydes does not win, you’ll see a large amount of GPP’ers weeping together in the corner. This may be a situation where you play one contrarian LU without Blaydes in it, and you play DO. Do it!

I have Blaydes ranked as my #1 ranked fighter this event using my DK focused algorithm. D.O I have ranked at 24.

PICK: Blaydes, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Blaydes (9.5/10): Stupidly high ceiling, high floor, but he’s pricey!

GPP: Blaydes (9/10): He’ll be very biggley owned, and you’ll need part of him too in order to reap the benefits!

Omielanczuk (6.5/10): Contrarian LU play here. 95% of the league will be on CB. Diversify and cross your fingers!

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Robert Whittaker

Vs.

Yoel Romero

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

18

4

Record

12

1

9

2

UFC Record

8

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-115

Vegas Odds

-105

27%

% Fights to Dec

15%

11

# of UFC Fights

8

 

Snapshot: 

Robert Whittaker is the UFC’s new toy on Christmas morning, and they love to show it off to their new friends. Their new friends will be 18,000+ screaming fans in Las Vegas, and unfortunately, they are using 40 year old Yoel Romero as the Guinea Pig to show off what their new toy can do. Here’s a highlight of a few things that this new toy can do:

 

  • Counter punch with the elite boxers in the UFC
  • Has a high Fight IQ that allows him to keep his distance between himself and Romero. As we all know, you do not want to let Romero get his hands on you and take you to the ground, or else it will be a very long night!
  • Has a 91% Takedown Defense!
  • Has some of the quickest hands in the division, allowing him to outbox almost anyone that is put in front of him.
  • Is 26 years old versus 40 years old…...enough said!
  • Lands 5.18 strikes per minute. By far the most on the card! High output is what we love in DFS!

 

I really like Whittaker here, and I think he is destined to be UFC champion in the near future, and for a very long time! This is also a 5 round fight, which will give Whittaker a few more rounds to rack up points if needed. We always like extra innings, or overtime in other DFS sports, so why not be able to partially control this, and take some extra time if needed? This is Whittaker’s time, so hop on board and enjoy the ride! HIs price tag is very reasonable, and you should be able to squeeze him in almost every roster that you want to. I think that Whittaker will be highly owned as well, so you it might make sense to put together a contrarian GPP LU with Daniel Omielanczuk and Yoel Romero. If they both win, then you’re golden!

PICK: Whittaker, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Whittaker (8/10): I think his odds to win are higher than the odds and salaries depict.

GPP: Whittaker (9/10): This is a 5 round fight, with a top-notch rising star in the organization. One who has quick, lethal hands, and can keep the fight where he wants it to be. I think he’ll be highly owned, but you need to roster him, especially since he’s got a cheap price tag at $8,300, and has a possible 5 round war to rack up points!          

Romero (7/10): I’ll use him in a few contrarian LU’s, especially

 

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

135

Amanda Nunes

Vs.

Valentina Shevchenko

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

4

Record

14

2

7

1

UFC Record

3

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,000

DK Salary

$8,200

-110

Vegas Odds

-110

11%

% Fights to Dec

31%

8

# of UFC Fights

4

 

Snapshot:

Here we are….the Main Event of the evening! Amanda Nunes steps into the cage with a $8,000 salary as she takes on Valentina Shevchenko in this 5 round Championship affair. This is a rematch of a battle that these two had in March of 2016 where Nunes won by Unanimous Decision in this 3 round fight. You may think that something similar will happen again, but many believe, and I happen to be one of them, that if Nunes can’t stop Shevchenko within the first two rounds, then it’s Shevchenko’s fight to lose.

Nunes has a notoriously bad gas tank, and this almost costed her biggely in the first matchup between the two. Nunes came out firing on all cylinders, and Shevchenko came out as her slow self in the 1st round. By the 3rd and final round Shevchenko was dominating the fight, taking it right to Nunes, but there weren’t any rounds left to show the judges what Shevchenko had left.

Nunes likes to come out quick, and blaze a trail, but if she can’t stop Shevchenko within the 1st 2 rounds, and before Shevchenko starts to turn the corner and show her best rounds (3-5), then there is a very good chance the Shevchenko wins this one by TKO in the 4th or 5th round, or by decision. It’s a tough one to call, and will be incredibly interesting to watch unfold in front of us Saturday night!

PICK: Nunes, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Nunes (7/10): I like the fact that this is a 5 round fight, and you almost have to roster one or both of these main event fighters because of that. Not incredibly confident with a victory by Nunes here, so tread lightly!

GPP: Nunes (7/10): If Nunes wins it will be high scoring due to the stoppage within the 1st 2-3 rounds, and her high output striking. Her price tag isn’t too bad either!

Shevchenko (7.5/10): If Shevchenko wins, then I think it will be a lowering scoring affair than if Nunes had won due to Shevchenko being an extremely patient counter-striker that can often take the air out of the cage.

UPDATE: THIS FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED SO NEITHER FIGHTER WILL ACCUMULATE POINTS. UPDATED OPTIMAL LINEUPS ARE BELOW.

                                                           

 

Cash Rankings

Fighter

Salary

Format Ranking

Curtis Blaydes

$9,500

9.5

Rob Font

$9,200

9

Travis Browne

$8,600

8.5

Robert Whittaker

$8,300

8

Jordan Mein

$8,100

8

Cody Stamann

$9,100

7.5

Amanda Nunes

$8,000

7

Gerald Meerschaert

$7,700

7

Alistair Overeem

$8,400

6.5

Trevin Giles

$9,000

6

Jim Miller

$7,300

6

Chad Laprise

$9,300

5

 

 

GPP Rankings

Fighter

Salary

Format Ranking

Curtis Blaydes

$9,500

9

Gerald Meerschaert

$7,700

9

Travis Browne

$8,600

9

Robert Whittaker

$8,300

9

Jordan Mein

$8,100

8.5

Jim Miller

$7,300

8.5

Valentina Shevchenko

$8,200

7.5

Alistair Overeem

$8,400

7.5

Amanda Nunes

$8,000

7

Yoel Romero

$7,900

7

Trevin Giles

$9,000

6

Jim Miller

$7,300

6

Cody Stamann

$9,300

6

Fabricio Werdum

$7,800

6

 

Optimal Lineups

 

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Curtis Blaydes

$9,500

2

Rob Font

$9,200

3

Travis Browne

$8,600

4

Robert Whittaker

$8,300

5

Jim Miller

$7,300

6

Terrion Ware

$7,100

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Curtis Blaydes

$9,500

2

Travis Browne

$8,600

3

Chad Laprise

$9,300

4

Jim Miller

$7,300

5

Terrion Ware

$7,100

6

Amanda Nunes

$8,000

Pivot

Jordan Mein

$8,100

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Curtis Blaydes

$9,500

2

Travis Browne

$8,600

3

Jim Miller

$7,300

4

Robert Whittaker

$8,300

5

Alistair Overeem

$8,400

6

Gerald Meerschaert

$7,700

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Chad Laprise

$9,300

2

Travis Browne

$8,600

3

Fabricio Werdum

$7,800

4

Gerald Meerschaert

$7,700

5

Robert Whittaker

$8,300

6

Jordan Mein

$8,100

 

GPP - Contrarian Line Up

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Curtis Blaydes

$9,500

2

Rob Font

$9,200

3

Jim Miller

$7,300

4

Gerald Meerschaert

$7,700

5

Alistair Overeem

$8,400

6

Yoel Romero

$7,900