MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 112

UFC Fight Night 112: Oklahoma City

 This week the UFC brings us a rare Sunday night card, as Bellator is conducting their 2nd PPV on Saturday night, and the UFC respectfully gave them the main stage on Saturday night. The traveling blood circus rolls into Oklahoma City, as Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee square off in the main event for 5 rounds. This is a very interesting card, as there aren’t many opportunities to vary your lineups in my opinion. There aren’t many below $8,000 salaried fighters that are worth rostering, so it makes it very difficult to construct your lineups. I do feel great about Cash lineup #1 though, and I think that’s the perfect lineup for this card, so if you are going to skip over my fight by fight preview, and go right to the optimal lineups, then make sure to pause and take a look at Cash lineup #1, as that’s the money maker this week.

There are a few interesting fights on this card, and one where the UFC is kicking off their Masters Division, sponsored by AARP. BJ Penn takes on Dennis Siver in a bout where prune juice is a must to keep these combatants “regular”. I would like to see Penn hang it up, as it’s ruining a legendary career every time he steps in the Octagon now, but I’m sure he needs the money, or to prove to himself that he hasn’t aged that much, and can still compete at the elite level. Dana White may have to pull him aside after Sunday night’s fight against Dennis Siver, and pull the plug on him if he loses, because I don’t think BJ Penn will know when to say when. It’s sad to watch honestly.

With that being said, the main event of Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Lee should be an awesome fight! This one is truly a coin flip, and the press conference escapades makes this bout even more interesting. There’s been a lot of criticism that the main event has received, but I love the matchup, and I think it’s the best fight on the card! From a DFS perspective, there weren’t many underpriced guys with value that we could jump on to help us save some salary, so many of the best lineups look very similar in structure, with 6 of the fighters holding down a solid rotation at the top, and a few fighters needing to jump in to help save some salary and allow for these top tier guys to be rostered.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter, as I’ll be live tweeting during Sunday Night’s event: @TJ_Scott_MMA. I’ll also be chatting in the forums from now until the card starts Sunday evening, so if you have any questions about your lineups, are looking for some help with a pivot, or want my opinion of things after we witness the weigh-ins on Saturday, then please feel free to join me in the forums, or on Twitter, and if you’re a Premium Member I’ll give you the Carte Blanche into my weird DFS oriented brain! Enjoy the fights, and please hit me up with your questions and thoughts on some money-making lineups!

Undercard

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night has a couple Light Heavyweights going at it when Josh Stansbury, a grapple-heavy 32 year old from Ohio takes on Jeremy Kimball, a striker with a limited ground game, and a reputation for not always coming into fights in the best shape. Stansbury is 1-1 in the UFC with both fights going to a decision, while Kimball is 0-1 in the UFC after suffering his first TKO loss of his pro MMA career back in January when he lost to Marcos Rogerio de Lima2:27 into the 1st round.

From a DraftKings perspective this fight does not excite me, and I’ll be avoiding this one in both formats, as you really can’t rely on either guy to be a solid fighter to roster. Kimball is a solid striker, but he is a little small for the LHW division, and could easily fight at Middleweight if he got his act together. Any time you have a fighter who has a reputation for not being in the best shape, and could fight at a lower weight class, then you need to take a step back and think about their all-around training regiment, and their desire to win in the cage. Kimball’s $7,500 salary is somewhat appealing, especially for a striker who has 10 of his 14 wins by TKO, but his tendency to be overpowered by bigger fighters, and a knack for not being able to prevent the takedown, makes him a fighter with too many holes in his game to put faith in his ability to score you the 100+ DK points that we are looking for. Stansbury’s $8,700 salary is just way too much for a ground fighter who may stall this one out for 3 rounds. With that being said, this is a good fight to avoid from a DK perspective.

PICK: Stansbury, Decision, Unanimous                     

Cash Game: N/A - neither guy gives me the confidence to pull off a victory.

GPP: Kimball (5.5/10): Again, I don’t like Kimball at all, but he’s a salary saver, has the ability to end fights before the final bell, and most likely will be low owned, and all of these factors make for a GPP play that you may want to throw in one of your contrarian lineups.                                           

Snapshot:

The 2nd fight of the night pits two rising stars against each other, as 27 year old Tony Martin, who’s fighting out of Team Sityodtong in Boston, takes on 27 year old Johnny Case who hasn’t fought in over 460 days! Tony Martin is a big dude for the Lightweight division, and he often uses this to his advantage to help him get his foe to the mat. Martin’s ground game is predicated on a heavy top game, using his size to wear down the typically smaller fighter that he’s facing. Case has a much more polished striking game than Martin, but the question becomes whether or not Case can keep his distance from Martin, and keep the fight standing, where he’ll have an advantage.

I think that this fight will be tightly contested, and could be won by either fighter. Martin started out as a -150 or better favorite on most books, but this has slowly tightened up as the fight has grown closer, and he stands at a -120 favorite over Case now. Martin’s salary of $8,400 is a little overpriced in my opinion, and Case’s salary of $7,800 is showing some nice value as the betting line gets closer to a pick ‘em.

The problem that I see with this matchup is that I could foresee both fighters being cautious of the other, and canceling each other out in many aspects of the MMA game. This could be a defensive battle, as both of these guys know the other’s game pretty well, and it will be very difficult to surprise their opponent with something that the other isn’t expecting. A lot of times these Lightweight battles between upper echelon fighters can turn into a high intensity battle with the fight littered with strikes, takedowns, transitions, and back to the feet for more strikes, but I just don’t see this one turning out that way. I think the deep knowledge of each other’s games, and the respect that they have for each other will produce a fight that is more strategic, and defense oriented than what we want to see when it comes to fighters that we are rostering on our DraftKings lineups. Last fight Martin only landed 20 significant strikes and 2 takedowns in a 3 round decision victory over Alex White. I could see this type of output occurring again, and possibly times two. Not loving either one of these guys from a DFS perspective for this reason.

PICK: Martin, Decision, Split

Cash Game: N/A: not a guarantee for victory on either side, but Case may be a solid option in order to save some salary, but there is risk involved.

GPP: N/A: I don’t foresee either fighter scoring very high in this fight, and that’s not what you want in your GPP LU.

Snapshot:

The 3rd fight on the undercard has 2 fighters making their UFC debuts, but unfortunately, I think that this fight will play out similarly to the first two fights where the ceiling for the victor is somewhat low, and we don’t like low ceilings when rostering guys for DFS. Gordon has ok hands, and he typically uses them to set up his aggressive chain wrestling, inevitably looking to get the fight to the ground, and work his ground and pound to a decision win.

Quinones has a solid striking game, earning him 5 of his 8 victories by KO. There hasn’t been much to critique when it comes to video highlighting Quinones’ takedown defense, and that is the big question mark in this fight. If Quinones can keep this fight standing, then he has a chance at working over Gordon, and either winning by KO, or taking a decision victory through out striking his opponent. From what I can tell, I think Gordon will eventually get his wish, and get this fight to the ground, but regardless of how long it takes for Gordon to ply his craft and get Quinones to the mat, I just don’t see his DFS scoring being very high. The same can be said for Quinones if he is able to stuff Gordon’s takedowns, and keep this fight standing. I think Quinones will be so focused on preventing the takedown, that he won’t have time to focus on his striking game, and his point output will be limited even if the fight does stay on its feet. Unfortunately, I think this fight plays out similarly to the 1st two where the scoring will be somewhat limited from a DFS perspective due to the matchup. Not saying it won’t be a fun fight to watch, but I am saying that their ceilings are lower than we want in DFS, and with both DK salaries at $8,100, there just isn’t enough opportunity here to take the risk with rostering either guy, although I may throw Quinones into a contrarian GPP lineup in case he pulls a KO out of his ass.

PICK: Gordon, Decision, Unanimous             

Cash Game: N/A: Just not enough certainty of victory here, especially for $8,100 in salary.

GPP: Quinones (5/10): Contrarian LU only. Otherwise, just enjoy the fight and watch as a fan.    

Snapshot:

Devin Powell steps into the Octagon for his 2nd attempt at victory in the UFC cage, and honestly, Powell probably shouldn’t be in the UFC, but thanks to Dana White’s Lookin For a Fight reality show, Powell was able to secure his ticket to the UFC. Darrell Horcher also probably shouldn’t be fighting in the UFC this weekend, as he hasn’t fought in over a year due a very serious motorcycle accident that by all accounts, should have taken his MMA career from him.

Powell is a BJJ black belt, but we weren’t able to witness his biggest strength in his UFC debut against the MMA Lab’s Drakkar Klose, as he was constantly on the retreat as Klose was able to pressure the Mainer up against the cage, and work his strikes into some dirty boxing. Powell is not the most athletic creature to roam the UFC’s Octagon, and often finds himself off balance when trying to defend strikes, and survive his opponent’s onslaught. Powell also lacks the physicality the you need when you reach the highest levels of the sport. He was able to get away with his toughness, and craftiness on the regional scene, but his quicker than normal accent to the UFC has exposed his weaknesses. You have to give him credit for his toughness though, as he could have easily folded up camp and bailed out of his Octagon debut against Klose, but he hung in there and battled until the final bell.

Horcher is a solid southpaw kickboxer that has the power and technique to make it a long night for any fighter who doesn’t have a top notch defensive striking MMA game. He was thrown into the fire when he took a short notice fight against probably the scariest guy on the UFC’s roster, Khabib Nurmagomedov. But he showed grit and toughness before succumbing about halfway through the 2nd round.

This is an interesting matchup, as we don’t know a lot about either fighter. Horcher should win this with his superior striking skills, but we really don’t know how badly his motorcycle accident may have affected him and his abilities. That is the big question mark in this one. If Powell can get this fight to the ground, and is able to work his BJJ game, then I could see him pulling off a huge upset and submitting Horcher. Powell is very lanky, and his long limbs make him a very effective grappler. If Horcher can’t work his striking game, and effectively pressure Powell, then you never know what could happen here.

PICK: Horcher, Decision, Unanimous                        

Cash Game: Horcher (7/10): I like his chances of victory, but his salary hurts our cap.

GPP: Powell (7/10): Yup, you read this right. I’m taking Powell in a few contrarian GPP plays, as I think his odds of pulling off a submission victory over Horcher are better than what his +335 odds, and his $7,000 DK salary indicate. And Horcher I think wins by unimpressive decision if he wins, accumulating fewer points than his $9,200 salary dictate.   

Snapshot:

The 5th fight of the evening bring us to the Women’s Strawweight division where Carla Esparza comes off a split decision loss to Randa Markos, who many thought that Esparza actually won, takes on the 8-1 Maryna Moroz. Moroz stands 6” taller than Esparza

This is a fight that you either hate or love from a DFS perspective, and I happen to love it. Here’s why. This is the classic striker vs. grappler contest our Grandpapi always told us about. Esparaz is probably the best wrestler in the Strawweight division, and one of the best in all of women’s MMA. She has fallen before, getting dismantled by current champ, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, back in 2015, but I think her strength will significantly expose Maroz’s weakness. Maroz is the taller, better striker, but she doesn’t carry the heaviest of hands, and in order to keep Esparza from repeatedly attacking her legs for a takedown, she will need to land some significant shots before Esparza is able to get her hands on her.

The $8,900 price tag is a little scary based on how poorly Esparza has looked in past fights, but I think this matchup sets up very nicely to accumulate an impressive number of DK points. So long as Esparza can’t get the takedowns, which I believe she can, and so long as Maroz continues to get up from the ground after Esparza scores the takedown. This repetition will rack up points, and I think she has a very good shot at earning her $8,900 salary.

PICK: Esparza, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Esparza (9/10): I like her odds of winning, especially at -240, and the matchup is great!

GPP: (9/10): I think she might be a top 3 scorer on the card in OKC.

Snapshot:

The 23 year old Marvin Vettori takes on the 38 year old Vitor Miranda. Vettori is a specimen, and he’s a legit prospect in the Middleweight division, and his -355 odds of victory definitely display his potential properly. The youth, strength, and talent of the young gun is impressive, and he has the possibility of becoming a title contendor if he continues to work and improve his striking.

Miranda has a punchers chance, but I think his declining speed, aggressive, and talent will all play a factor in Vettori taking this one to the ground, and eventually submitting the age-less wonder. I like Vettori in all formats, but you’ll have to pony up for his $9,100 salary, but I think with the options on this card, you need to.

PICK:   Vettori, Submission, 2nd round                      

Cash Game: Vettori (9/10): High odds of victory, low floor, and high ceiling.

GPP: Vettori (9/10): Like I said, a high ceiling, and it could be worse than $9,100, especially with this card.                                             

Snapshot:

This one has the potential to be the fight of the night, but aren’t all fights that Clay Guida is involved in? This is a tough one to handicap because we’ve seen both these guys look great in the cage, and also look not so great. Guida has seemed to taper off over the past 2 years, but he continues to get fights due to his entertainment value that he brings to the cage every single fight. Koch has shown flashes of brilliance, but this will only be his 2nd fight since May of 2014, so you have to think that he isn’t on the top of his game.

I’ve seen some recent pictures of Koch at training camp, and he looks to be in great shape, so hopefully that means his taking this fight seriously. His finish prop is +156 to go along with his $8,600 salary. I don’t think that Guida can KO Koch, and I think Koch will be well prepared to defend Guida’s inevitable shots. I think Koch’s versatile game will overcome Guida’s pace, and he’ll either win by decisive decision, or Submission in the 2nd or 3rd.

PICK: Koch, Decision, Unanimous                 

Cash Game: Koch (8/10): I like Koch’s situation much more than Guida’s, and it really comes down to whether he can get the stoppage or not.

GPP: Koch (7/10): He’ll most likely be highly owned, deminishing his GPP value, and he has a lot of questions surrounding his abilities of some serious time away from the game.

Main Card

Snapshot:

In the first bout of the night in the Masters Division, UFC legend, BJ Penn, takes on 38 year old German, Dennis Siver. 6 years ago this would have been an interesting matchup, but now it’s the UFC’s way of letting a couple vets play in the sandbox with the big kids. Penn has won once in 7 years, and it is approaching a decade since he was a relevant contender, and he should have hung it up long ago. Siver has also lost a step, and his once vicious spinning kicks no longer pack the punch that they once did. He hasn’t finished an opponent since 2010, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is his last fight in professional MMA.

Silver is a -210 favorite, which is somewhat surprising to me. Yes, Penn has gotten beaten handedly in his last two outing against Yair Rodriguez, and Frankie Edgar. Yes, Yair, and Frankie. Two of the top fighters in the division. So Penn hasn’t necessarily been taking on slouches the past few years as his talents have deteriorated, and that has to amount for something. Taking that into consideration, how can Siver be a more than 2 to 1 favorite? Penn’s level of competition alone should give him the benefit of the doubt, and I think this one should be priced closer to a pick ‘em.

With that being said, I don’t love this fight from a DFS perspective. Sure, put a small wager on Penn at +175, but feel free to leave him off your rosters. He is a solid punt option with a $7,400 salary, but I don’t think he’ll get you many DK points in your GPP lineup, even in victory.

PICK: Penn, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Penn (6.5/10): Solid punt play here. Need to save some cap space somewhere.

GPP: N/A: Not loving either guy in GPP formats. Penn will most likely be owned at a higher rate than he should due to his legendary status.                      

Snapshot:

“The Dirty Bird”, Tim Means, brings his high-level striking into his fight with the 14-3 Alex Garcia. Garcia has some heavy hands, but ultimately he doesn’t want to stand and bang with Means, as this is his domain. Garcia is a solid grappler, and will want to get this fight to the ground to give himself the best chance at victory.

Means is a tall, lanky striker that has a knack for knocking people out. 18 of his 26 wins have come by the way of the KO or TKO, and his best chance at victory is to survive the Garcia onslaught that typically occurs the first 2-3 minutes of the 1st round, and once Garcia gases, which is inevitable, start peppering him with his kicks and punches. Garcia has a history of losing to taller strikers, and this matchup plays that angle perfectly.

Means has a -120 finish prop, which is the 2nd best on the card, and his output is fantastic, averaging 4.18 landed strikes per minute - by far the highest average on the card. This high output combined with Garcia’s pencient for gassing make Means one of the best plays on the card. His $9,000 salary isn’t outrageous, and his likely to win with well over 100 points, regardless if it’s by decision or stoppage. Make room, The Dirty Birds moving onto your roster!

PICK: Means, KO, 2nd round           

Cash Game: Means (9.5/10): I like his odds at winning, and his floor is pretty high if he can survive the 1st 3 minutes. He also probably has the highest ceiling on the card as well.

GPP: Means (9/10): See my last comment above. On a card with few clear cut DFS studs, we need to get some ownership on the guys with the highest ceilings possible.                        

Snapshot:

Dominick Reyes makes a very hyped debut with a 6-0 record against the 38 year old Dane, Joachim Christensen. Reyes comes into the UFC after a highlight reel knockout of Jordan Powell in the LFA promotion. Do yourself a favor and google this fight. It’s quick, aggressive, and fulfilling! There is a lot of hype behind Reyes due to his impressive striking, but he has never fought someone the caliber of Christensen. Reyes is taking this fight on short notice, but he did just have this quick fight against Jordan Powell on June 2nd, so he most likely is still in shape from that camp.

Christensen has never been KO’ed in his 19 fight pro MMA career, and I could see him taking this fight the distance as well, but Reyes does has the best finish prop on the card at -136. This is interesting because you have the untarnished chin of Christensen taking on the power of a Las Vegas line! Who will prevail? You’ll have to watch Sunday night to find out!

I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight went to a decision, and Reyes ended up winning. He may not have his typical performance due to Octagon Jitters, and that’s a question mark that you need to take into account when you are analyzing the fighters you want to roster. Reyes has the highest salary on the card at $9,300, but I just don’t think he’s worth that price tag from a value perspective. Don’t get me wrong, his upside is great, but the unanswered questions that he brings with him are difficult to ignore, and those do go into my overall evaluation of him as a scorer for my lineups.

PICK: Reyes, Decision, Unanimous   

Cash Game: Reyes (8/10): I like his odds of winning, and his high ceiling, but his price tag and debut taint the hype to some degree.

GPP: Reyes (7/10): High salary, high ownership, and question marks are his negatives. High ceiling, and weak overall upside on this card are his positives.

Snapshot: 

If there’s one thing that we have all learned since DraftKings revamped their scoring system for MMA, it’s that high output, transitional fighters who can land a high number of strikes per minute, but also mix in takedowns and ground advances often tend to score the most points. This typically favors lighter weight classes, and one specific weight class that has been a solid producer of new DK points is the women’s Strawweight division. Regardless of the matchup, if you see a women’s Strawweight fight on the card, you need to stop and pay attention and do some research. The fast-paced striking, combined with the transitions in the clinch, scrambles, and ground fighting are great for racking up points in the newer DK scoring system.

This fight is one I’d target, regardless of the side of the fight you like, both combatants have a high ceiling, and high floor. Exactly what we want in our lineups. Justine Kish comes in as a slight underdog at +100, but she has a brutal offensive striking game that is Muay Thai based, and has a solid physique that allows her to walk through weak attacks from her foes. Kish also averages 4.1 Strikes Landed per Minute, which is 2nd best on the card, only behind Tim Means who is just ahead of her with a 4.18 Strikes Landed per Minute average.

Felice Herrig has been on a nice little roll, taking down two up and coming Strawweights in Alexa Grasso, and Kailin Curran, and she’s looking to take down a 3rd rising star to extend her win streak to 3 in the Octagon.

From a DFS perspective I am really liking Justine Kish in this spot. It’s a great matchup for her, as she likes to push the fight, and continue to move forward, causing her opponents to retreat and throw. This is the exact style that can disrupt Felice Herrig’s recent winning streak. Kish needs to bull the “Lil’ Bulldog”, and if she can do that, I think she has a good chance at winning this fight. Whenever you get a good feeling about a matchup, the fighter’s salary is under $8k, and she’s in the Women’s Strawweight division, then it’s time to stop thinking and start rostering. This is that situation. Kish has a solid shot at winning this fight, and we can get her for $7,900, well under the $8,300 average. This is something we have to take advantage of, but I can guarantee that a lot of other people are thinking this way too, as long as they did their homework. If you see Kish in someone’s lineup, you can assume they did their homework, and you’re in for a long night, or you can assume that they are following TJ Scott on FantasyAlarm.com, and in that case they’re in for a long night as well.

PICK: Kish, Decision, Unanimous                  

Cash Game: Kish (9.5/10): Salary saver that I think matches up great against Herrig. Take the value when you can get it!

GPP: Kish (9/10): The Women’s Strawweight division loves to throw up DFS points, and I think that Kish will be a top 3 point scorer for this event.

Snapshot:

I like this next matchup at 185 pounds, as it puts two fighters with similar backgrounds, but one with a little more KO power, and the other with more speed. Hendricks has found his passion for MMA by moving up to Middleweight (185) from Welterweight (170). This is a tough fight to call, as Boetsch has some serious power in his hands, and has made a habit out of winning when his back’s against the wall, and he’s an underdog. Boetsch has been fighting in the UFC since Feb of 2008 with one brief 3 fight stint on the regional circuit, but overall he’s had 22 fights in the UFC going 11-10. Can he keep his head above the .500 mark?

We’ll see, but he’s got his hands full with a rejuvenated Johny Hendricks. Don’t overlook Hendricks’ pedigree, as he’s tallied 19 fights in the UFC, currently standing at 13-6, but 1-0 while a member of the Middleweight division.

This is an interesting matchup, as both fighters possess fight ending power in their hands, and both have come from wrestling backgrounds. Boetsch finds himself as the +175 underdog with a salary of $7,700, while Hendricks comes in as a -210 favorite and a salary of $8,500. These odds and salary tell us that it should be a relatively easy victory for Hendricks, but this is one of those trap fights that can completely derail your train to a GPP victory (see Cirkunov, Misha 3 weeks ago in my LU’s). You take Hendricks and have had a flawless night so far. You just need Johny to win by decision, and you take home some big money. Heck, you don’t even need a quick stoppage. You just need 75 points and you’re golden! What happens? Boetsch lands a right hook from hell that completely KO’s Hendricks. Your GPP night is now completely ruined, and the $20,000 in GPP victories you saw dancing in your head are now a mere $450, and you are barely over the break even point for the night.

Mark my words, it might go down for you like this Sunday night. And this is a main reason while I think I’ll be fading this fight for the most part. I’m going to wait and watch the weigh-ins on Saturday to see if my feelings change, but as of now, I’ll most likely be a sideline viewer with some popcorn, enjoying the fight for what it is. There are just too many question marks on both sides of this one. I’ll most likely have some Boetsch in a contrarian LU or two, as he won’t be highly owned, and if he wins, it’s most likely by KO within the first 2 rounds.

PICK: Hendricks, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A: Not enough certainty to want to risk a roster spot on this one.

GPP: Boetsch (6.5): I’ll have a little Boetsch in some of my LU’s for the contrarian flavor.

Snapshot:

Here we are... the maine event of the evening! Yes, we have gotten to the point in MMA where we are watching a main event of Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Lee. Most casual fans will have no idea of who these two fighters are, and why should they devote any time to watching them throw hands late on a Sunday night. Truth be told, this is actually a really good matchup, and should make for a very entertaining fight, especially with the fireworks that took place during the events press conference where Lee commented on Chiesa’s momma, and all hell broke loose!

This fight could go either way, but I have a pretty strong stance on this one. Lee is a physical specimen who loves to go out and throw some heavy leather around, but he’s also well versed from a wrestling perspective as well. He’s quick, athletic, and would be the prototypical body that you would start to build your ideal MMA fighter with. The problem with Lee is that he sometimes fights down to his competition, and doesn’t keep the pressure on when he should. He’s apt to get clipped by an unsuspecting opponent. His other liability is that he has not fought the best competition, and when the going gets tough against someone of a caliber he hasn’t fought before, will his fighting spirit takeover, or will his poor fighting IQ become present again.

Michael Chiesa is not your “A” typical MMA fighter, and you probably couldn’t pick him out as a fighter in a lineup (sans the ears). Chiesa has gone 7-2 in the UFC, but one of his 2 losses was due to a questionable cut that was induced by Joe Lauzon. Chiesa has a lethal ground game, and if he gets your back, you can pretty much reside in the fact that you’ll either be tapping out or sleeping within the minute. His striking is unorthodoxed, but he’s a tough, gritty competitor that will not shy away from competition, or being drug into deep waters.

Lee is coming in with an $8,200 salary, while Chiesa comes in at an $8,000 price tag. As you would assume with a main event, these guys are fighting in a 5 round war, so we have to give them some extra credit when analyzing this one. Anytime you can roster a DFS player who has the chance to play 66% more game than most of the other DFS competitors, then you have to give them a harder look. It’s like rostering  a golfer in PGA that makes the cut. He’s definitely going to help your scoring more than someone who doesn’t make the cut.

I like Chiesa’s competitive fire, elite level ground skills, level of competition that he has fought in the past, and his many intangibles. These factors combined with the possibility of the fight going for 5 rounds, and you have a very valuable DFS fighter with a below average salary of $8,000. I like Chiesa’s chance of getting this fight to the ground, Lee panicking once it gets there, an opportunity arising, and Chiesa locking up a submission somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round.

PICK: Chiesa, Submission, 3rd round

Cash Game: Chiesa (8/10): His likelihood of winning isn’t as high as I’d like it to be, but his salary is appealing, and his ceiling is pretty damn high!

GPP: Chiesa (8.5): If you can get a 5 round fighter for $8k or less, then you need to take a hard look at them. Once you peel back the onion with Chiesa, then you start to really like what you are seeing, and he’s got a chance to rack up some serious points while also saving you some cap space.

Cash Game Rankings

GPP Rankings

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Cash 2

GPP 1

GPP 2

GPP - Contrarian