Another weekend, another UFC card. This weekend we find the UFC taking a trip to Auckland, New Zealand. The card tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Saturday night, and can be watched for free on UFC FightPass and FS1.

An interesting card to say the least, and there really aren’t many underdogs that I feel great about, so we need to do some digging to find the value on the card that we’ll need to roster in order to win our Cash and GPP battles. As usual, you should be targeting those high-output strikers, as well as those wrestlers who are willing to advance position, and look for submission victories. The DraftKings newish scoring format has made wrestlers and grapplers much more valuable, and has also rewarded active fighters who win be decision. Previously you only needed to focus on the strikers who ended fights early. Thankfully those days are gone, and we can now integrate ground fighters into our DFS gameplans.

With that being said, take a look at our UFC Fight Night 110 preview below, and find the value that you’re looking for to make shekels rain! As usual, my optimal lineups are there as examples. Use the write-ups, and suggestions within each fight preview to formulate your own lineups. I can assure you, a combination of our optimals, and your own unique lineups with our research will go a long way! It’s raining shekels!

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Dong Hyun Kim

Vs.

Thibault Gouti

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

8

Record

11

3

1

2

UFC Record

0

3

3

2

Record Last 5

2

3

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

-110

Vegas Odds

-110

32%

% Fights to Dec

14%

3

# of UFC Fights

3

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night has Dong Hyun Kim at $8,800 taking on Thibault Gouti at $7,400. The interesting thing is that this fight’s odds started at close to 2/1 in favor of Kim, but over the last few days the line has shifted in Gouti’s favor, and now the fight is a “pick ‘em”. This introduces some serious game theory here, so we need to slow down and evaluate not so much as to who we think will win this fight, but what are DFS’ers thinking with this line shift.

I think that Kim is a better DFS play here. He has superior grappling with a solid Judo background, and he’s proven he can take a punch and survive a war. HIs battle with Polo Reyes proved that, and I think that will play a factor.

Gouti has lost 3 fights in a row in the UFC Octagon, 2 by submission and 1 by KO, and I think his lack of ground game will get exposed here. You cannot ignore his new value from a DFS perspective though. Vegas is saying this is an even money fight, but DraftKings is saying that Kim is a big favorite. I tend to agree with DK here. You also need to take into account that if someone is a casual DFS MMA player, and they don’t do their research on this fight, then they’ll see some serious value in Gouti based on the current lines and the DK salaries. This most likely means that Gouti will be highly owned in all formats. From a GPP perspective keep this in mind, as you may want to avoid Gouti in GPP’s due to this reason.

I like Kim’s style to get takedowns at will, and have a superior ground game. DK’s newish scoring system rewards fighters who can get takedowns, advance on the ground, and win via a solid ground game, and this fits right into Kim’s game.

PICK: Kim/Dec/Unan 

Cash Game: Kim (6.5/10): I like his chances to rack up some serious points due to his style and his opponent.            

GPP: Kim (7/10): I think people will be on his opponent due to perceived value, so game theory says to be on Kim.       

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

J.J. Aldrich

Vs.

Chan-Mi Jeon

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

4

2

Record

5

0

0

1

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

2

$8,600

DK Salary

$7,600

-235

Vegas Odds

195

50%

% Fights to Dec

20%

1

# of UFC Fights

0

Snapshot:

19 year old Chan-Mi Jeon is making her UFC debut, and takes this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. She’s taking on the gritty JJ Aldrich, who was Joanna Champion’s 1st pick on The Ultimate Fighter 23, and is making her 2nd official appearance in the Octagon. Aldrich is a -235 favorite, and definitely is a more experienced and technical fighter than Jeon. The South Korean has a mean streak, but her aggressiveness and lack of experience will not help her out much in this scrap. Jeon has also shown a questionable gas tank, and taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice will only expose and emphasize this weakness even more.

The odds for this one to end before the final bell are not very good, but the striking activity in the female Strawweight division cannot go overlooked. I won’t be targeting this one much, as there are too many question marks, with a likelihood of this one being a snoozer that goes the distance. This could be sneaky though, as this division is typically a high-paced decision battle, which oftentimes means a high scoring output, so don’t write this one off completely. Jeon’s floor may be one of the highest one’s out of all of the underdogs, so she should be considered as a punt play to save some cash.

PICK: Aldrich, Decision, Unanimous            

Cash Game: N/A - I may have a light exposure to Aldrich due to the potential for output, but that is very ‘slight’.          

GPP: Aldrich (6.5/10): Potential for high point total due to weight class and opponent is appealing.

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Zak Ottow

Vs.

Kiichi Kunimoto

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

4

Record

17

6

1

1

UFC Record

3

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-335

Vegas Odds

275

22%

% Fights to Dec

39%

2

# of UFC Fights

4

Snapshot:

Zak Ottow is taking this fight on short notice (just under a month) as he takes on Kiichi Kunimoto who hasn’t fought since losing to Neil Magny in February of 2015. Kunimoto is getting up there in age at 36, and with the fact that he hasn’t fought in a few years tells me that ring rust could be a serious issue here. Kunimoto has limited striking, and likes to get his fights to the ground, and control with top position.

Ottow is not the most appealing fighter, been when he’s taking on a fighter like Kunimoto his attractiveness increased dramatically. Ottow has a solid ground game, and overall, I think he’s in a much better position in his MMA career, and is just a better fighter than Kunimoto in pretty much every facet. I normally wouldn’t be targeting a fighter like Ottow, but facing someone as weak as Kunimoto makes him attractive to own, so I’ll have some exposure to him. I like him in Cash games, as he’ll be a reliable source for a “W”, and I’ll also have some exposure to him in GPP’s, as Kunimoto has the potential of getting taken down quite a bit, out struck, and finished late; the perfect recipe for a GPP fighter.

PICK: Ottow, TKO, 3rd                                 

Cash Game: Ottow (8.5/10): I like his likelihood of winning this one, and it may be a nice scoring output as well. Take the wins when you can get them.

GPP: Ottow (7/10): His salary is a tough one to swallow, and he may not finish his opponent, but I like his upside nonetheless.

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

John Moraga

Vs.

Ashkan Mokhtarian

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

16

6

Record

13

1

5

5

UFC Record

0

0

2

3

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-155

Vegas Odds

135

45%

% Fights to Dec

7%

10

# of UFC Fights

0

Snapshot:

In the 4th fight of the night, John Moraga takes on the UFC debuting Ashkan Mokhtarian. AM is almost impossible to find fight footage on, which makes it difficult to handicap, but I have found some footage on him, and have read quite a bit. The line has tightened up quite a bit on this fight as well, so you may see folks flock to Mokhtarian due to this reason.

Moraga at one point in his career was considered a top tier talent in the division, and his losses have come against some serious UFC competition, so the experience edge definitely goes to Moraga in this battle. 45% of Moraga’s fights go the distance, so odds are that he won’t be finishing AM in this one.

I don’t think I’ll have too much exposure here, but Mokhtarian may be a solid pick to use as a punt in Cash game formats. I don’t think I’ll have too much exposure when it comes to GPP’s on this fight, but if you do want to throw one of these guys in your GPP lineups, then I’d focus on Mokhtarian here.

PICK: Moraga, Decision, Unanimous                        

Cash Game: Mokhtarian (6/10): This is a punt play, and a great spot to save some salary cap with a slight chance of winning.

GPP: Mokhtarian (5.5/10): A contrarian play only

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Luke Jumeau

Vs.

Dominique Steele

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

2

Record

14

8

0

0

UFC Record

1

3

5

0

Record Last 5

2

3

$7,700

DK Salary

$8,500

150

Vegas Odds

-170

15%

% Fights to Dec

50%

0

# of UFC Fights

4

Snapshot:

Luke Jumeau makes his UFC debut as he takes on the 22 fight veteran Dominique Steele in this Welterweight battle. Steele comes in as a -170 favorite, and sports an $8,500 DK price tag, while Jumeau comes in at +155 and has a DK salary of $7,700. Jumeau has heavy hands, and a knack for ending his fights quickly, but he’s never fought someone at Steele’s level.

Steel brings a solid wrestling game that typically leads to a heavy top game game that is grinding, and challenges the will of his opponent. Steele has also been KO’ed 4 times, so his chin has to come into question after 22 professional MMA fights. If Steele can avoid the heavy hands of Jumeau, then I think his experience will allow him to take advantage of Jumeau’s single strike style, and get this fight to the ground. When Steele gets this fight to the ground, I don’t think Jumeau has the skill or experience to make his way back to his feet. Steel will grind out this rounds from top position, which is great for his chances of victory, but I don’t think his ceiling will be very high from a DFS perspective. I like Steele, but he comes with some risk. I’ll also have some exposure to Jumeau from a GPP perspective for some obvious reasons.

PICK: Steele, Decision, Unanimous              

Cash Game: Steele (7/10): I think he wins, but ceiling is low

GPP: Steele (6/10): Low ceiling and high salary doesn’t bode well for GPP formats... Jumeau (7/10): I think he’ll be low owned, with a high ceiling due to his heavy hands, and his opponent's questionable chin. Solid combination, especially when you mix in the salary saver!

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Vinc Pichel

Vs.

Damien Brown

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

1

Record

17

9

2

1

UFC Record

2

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,800

DK Salary

$8,400

100

Vegas Odds

-120

20%

% Fights to Dec

38%

3

# of UFC Fights

3

Snapshot:

In the last prelim fight of the night, Vinc “From Hell” Pechel takes on Australian Damien “Beatdown” Brown. Brown is a gritty fighter who doesn’t have to travel far for this scrap, and don’t underestimate this, as traveling halfway across the world can really affect a fighter’s energy level.

On fight night, Pichel will enter the cage not having fought in 1,113 days (May 2014), and this layoff could play a big factor in the contest. Brown, a 26 fight veteran, isn’t extraordinary in any one facet of the MMA game, but his gritty, competitive style often convinces his opponents to fight his game, and that’s typically the only way that Brown can win. His athleticism isn’t special. His power is average. His wrestling is ok. And this is exactly what he wants his opponents to see, as they will typically underestimate him in the cage, which often leads to an upset victory by “Beatdown”.

If the ring rust isn’t a big issue for Pichel, then I think he has a very good chance at beating Brown, and when you look at the card from top to bottom, Pichel may be the most attractive dog on the card. Pichel has averaged almost 7.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in his 3 UFC fights, and with the newish scoring format, this is a nice stat to have in your back pocket. If Pichel can shake off the ring rust, overcome the draining travel to New Zealand, then I think he has a high likelihood of taking Brown down at will, and controlling from the top position. One thing he cannot do is allow Brown to dictate where this fight takes place, and get trapped against the cage as Brown dirty boxes him into a loss.

On top of all of these facts, my numbers have Pichel as the favorite here, and a top 10 play when it comes to DFS. I think there is plenty of value here with Pichel.

PICK: Pichel, Decision, Unanimous  

Cash Game: Pichel (8/10): Great opportunity to save some salary cap, and I also like his odds of victory here. His ceiling is low, but we’ll take it in Cash.

GPP: Pichel (7.5/10): A salary saver, and solid odds of victory. His downfall in GPP is that he probably will be highly owned for these reasons. There aren’t many opportunities to save funds on this card, and this is one of the most attractive ones, which typically means high ownership, and you don’t want this in GPP.

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Alexander Volkanovski

Vs.

Mizuto Hirota

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

1

Record

18

7

1

0

UFC Record

1

2

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,300

DK Salary

$6,900

-450

Vegas Odds

360

13%

% Fights to Dec

56%

1

# of UFC Fights

3

Snapshot:

Alexander Volkanovski is a stud. Period. We’ll make this one short and sweet. Volkanovski has the tools to become a champion some day, and he’s fighting very close to home, so I think he’ll have a serious fanbase behind him. The Volkan can strike with the best of them, and he has a very solid wrestling game, and he’s taking on someone who is 36 years old and on the downside of his career. This one should end quickly, and it should end violently. Yes, he’s the highest price tag on the card, but well worth it, and many will argue that the $9,300 is not high enough.

Volkanovski started at a -300 favorite and has grown to an almost -500 favorite in the past few days. His DK price tag of $9,300 could be argued as a “deal” with how the line has moved and where it currently stands. I like Volkanovski in all formats. Fit him in where you can, and thank me later, although this really isn’t that tough of a call.

PICK:  Volkanovski, KO, 1st  

Cash Game: Volkanovski (10/10): I am hesitant to give him a 10 after what we saw happen to Misha Cirkunov a few weeks ago, but I don’t think he has a chance of losing here. Just need to manage his salary.

GPP: Volkanovski (9/10): If it wasn’t for his high price tag, and his insanely high ownership, he’d be a 10. It is what it is. Get him in your lineups!

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Ben Nguyen

Vs.

Tim Elliott

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

15

6

Record

14

7

3

1

UFC Record

3

5

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,500

DK Salary

$8,700

180

Vegas Odds

-220

14%

% Fights to Dec

48%

4

# of UFC Fights

8

Snapshot:

Tim Elliott is a -220 favorite over Ben Nguyen who comes in at +180. These two Americans are an interesting matchup, but I have a heavy lean in this matchup. Tim Elliott is coming off a record-setting DraftKings scoring performance of 175 points when he beat Louis Smolka in a decision victory a few months ago. Yes, he scored 175 points in a decision victory! That alone is enough to have me come begging for him on my rosters. Yes, Nguyen has a chance at winning, but Elliott’s game lines up perfectly for DK scoring, and that’s all we care about!

Regardless of the possibility of a loss, Elliott’s upside is way too high to ignore, and I’ll be owning him in all formats pretty heavily. His upside alone is well worth the $8,700 price tag. If you told me that Tim Elliott could score me 175 points, but there is a 25% chance of him losing, then I’d tell you that I don’t care, and he was going to be on my rosters! The upside is well worth the risk. Lock him up!

PICK: Elliott, Decision, Unanimous                            

Cash Game: Elliott (10/10): Got to have him in your Cash LU’s.

GPP: Elliott (9/10): He will be stupidly highly owned (if you can say that), but you can’t leave him off your LU’s.

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Ion Cutelaba

Vs.

Luis Henrique da Silva

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

2

Record

13

2

1

2

UFC Record

2

2

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,900

DK Salary

$7,300

-300

Vegas Odds

250

14%

% Fights to Dec

7%

3

# of UFC Fights

4

Snapshot:

Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba takes on Luis Henrique “Frankenstein” da Silva in the 9th fight of the night, and this is a fight that you should be targeting to some degree. I really like Cutelaba here because he has a great gas tank, legit striking, and is solid on the ground. He also fights at a very high pace, and takes the fight to his opponents. It’s important to note that there is a lot of value in a high-paced fighter when it comes to DK scoring. You want a fighter who can strike with a high output, has a gas tank, and can handle himself in all facets of the game (striking, wrestling, BJJ).

Da Silva is attractive due to his low price tag, and high upside that he brings to the table with his heavy hands, but I think that Cutelaba is a superior fighter in all facets of the game. Da Silva has also proven that he doesn’t have the best gas tank in the world either, and this could play a factor. In a perfect world Cutelaba beats him up on the feet for a few rounds, gets some takedowns, and then eventually pounds him out in the 3rd round. If he can do this, then you’re looking at a 135 - 150 point DK night, and that’s orgasmic from a DFS perspective! I like Cutelaba, and I like him even more since I think da Silva will be highly owned, as there aren’t many opportunities to find dogs with value that could win on this card.

PICK: Cutelaba, TKO, 2nd                            

Cash Game: Cutelaba (8/10): High odds of victory, and a high ceiling.

GPP: Cutelaba (8/10): I think the early stoppage potential, and his versatility make him a solid GPP play, and I think he’s a nice pivot off of his opponent, who I think will be highly owned in GPP, as he has a high ceiling, and low salary, but in my opinion, a low chance of winning.                                              

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Ross Pearson

Vs.

Dan Hooker

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

13

Record

13

7

11

10

UFC Record

3

3

1

4

Record Last 5

2

3

$7,900

DK Salary

$8,300

140

Vegas Odds

-160

47%

% Fights to Dec

30%

21

# of UFC Fights

6

Snapshot:

Auckland’s own Daniel Hooker takes on England’s Ross Pearson in this Lightweight battle. Hooker is a 27 year old southpaw Muay Thai striker, and I feel like we really haven’t seen his full potential in the cage, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is his coming out party. It isn’t an easy task though, as Pearson has had 21 UFC fights in his career, and has fought some of the best Lightweights in the world. Pearson seems to be on the downside of his career, and is now just fighting for a paycheck, as he’ll never compete for a belt moving forward. These are the guys that you have to be cautious of rostering, as the motivation has left them years ago, and they now just show up to get a paycheck. These guys aren’t scared to bail out of a fight and take the easiest way out. I don’t expect Ross to do this though, as his last 7 fights have gone to a decision (2-5), and this is not a characteristic that you want to have on your roster, especially when these fights are typically taking place on the feet.

I like Hooker’s quietness here, as I don’t think many people are targeting him due to his opponent’s pentiont for going to decisions. He’s fighting in his backyard, he needs to impress the UFC brass, and he is being given the perfect opportunity to walk away with a victory. Now the question becomes, can he stop a tough Brit before the final bell sounds? We’ll see, but I’ll have some exposure to Hooker, but I’ll be avoiding this fight for the most part.

PICK: Hooker, Decision, Split           

Cash Game: Hooker, (6/10): Not loving it, but I think his odds of victory are pretty high.

GPP: Hooker (6.5/10: I think Hooker may surprise some people in his hometown, and I don’t think many will see this coming. Worth the risk IMO.                 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Derek Brunson

Vs.

Daniel Kelly

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

16

5

Record

13

1

8

2

UFC Record

6

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-265

Vegas Odds

225

29%

% Fights to Dec

36%

10

# of UFC Fights

7

Snapshot:

Wow, what do I say about this fight? If there is one fighter that does not look the part of a MMA fighter, then Dan Kelly is that fighter. When you watch Dan Kelly fight it’s almost like watching a car accident. It’s gross, and difficult to watch, but your can’t turn your head. If you’ve never seen Dan Kelly fight, then do me a favor and film yourself during the first 2:00 minutes of this fight, and rewatch it the next morning when you’ve sobered up. Dan Kelly is the most unathletic, awkward fighter that I’ve ever seen step foot in the Octagon! When you first watch him fight you are thinking to yourself, “oh man, this guys is going to get dominated, and most likely will be unconscious within the next 30 seconds”, but as you watch the fight progress you realize that Kelly is so awkward that he poses serious problems for traditional MMA fighters.

With that being said, Kelly has beaten so many “better” fighters when he was an underdog that he has convinced the general public that he is a world beater. We aren’t “the general public” though, and we will not jump on that train! Derek Brunson is a very good wrestler, has heavy hands, and is 10 times the athlete that Dan Kelly is, and these are the factors that we are betting on. Yes, Dan Kelly was an Olympic Judoka, but that was many moons ago, and Derek Brunson is going to bring his “A” game after his embarrassing loss to Robert Whitaker in this same part of the world in his last fights. I think Brunson wins in vicious fashion in the first, and Dan Kelly’s fairy tail comes to an end. We are also trying to expose the fact that the masses will be on Kelly, as he has become a fan favorite with his dad-bod as the average Joe in the UFC.

PICK: Brunson, TKO, 1st                             

Cash Game: Brunson (7.5/10): I like his odds of winning, but he does have a high price tag. His ceiling is high though.

GPP: Brunson (8/10): I think the casual fan will be on Kelly due to his underdog persona, but I like Brunson’s high ceiling, and low ownership.

Main Event

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

265

Mark Hunt

Vs.

Derrick Lewis

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

11

Record

18

4

7

5

UFC Record

9

2

2

3

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,000

DK Salary

$8,200

100

Vegas Odds

-120

13%

% Fights to Dec

14%

12

# of UFC Fights

11

Snapshot:

Alright, alright, alright! We got two big boys going at it in the main event of the evening. 43 year old Mark Hunt takes on 32 year old Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis. This will be the typical heavyweight slugfest, where there are very little DFS points generated by takedowns, advances, or strikes, and the majority of the points will come from the finish. Basically it becomes a question of who goes to sleep first.

This is a risky fight, and I don’t think the scoring will be incredibly high because all of the points are coming from the finish. Hunt used to be known for his chin, but as he has aged, his chin has become more questionable, and with the way that Lewis throws, I think Hunt’s chin gets exposed. The MMA game is not for the faint of heart, or the elder statesmen, and this is what we are getting with Mark Hunt. A warrior who is close to retirement, and with a dilapidated chin.

This is a fight that I’ll probably avoid from a Cash perspective due to the low ceiling, and question marks surrounding the victor, because as you know, in the Heavyweight division, either fighter can go to sleep with any strike, and that’s not exactly what we want when it comes to cash games.

PICK: Lewis, KO, 1st                       

Cash Game: Lewis (7.5/10): I think Lewis’ youth, power, and size are the difference.

GPP: Lewis (8/10): I think Lewis’ heavy hands will connect with Hunt’s old, questionable chin, and that’s all we need to know.                         

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

A.Volkanovski

$9,300

2

Ion Cutelaba

$8,900

3

Tim Elliott

$8,700

4

Derrick Lewis

$8,200

5

Vinc Pichel

$7,800

6

A.Mokhtarian

$7,000

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

A.Volkanovski

$9,300

2

Derrick Lewis

$8,200

3

Vinc Pichel

$7,800

4

A.Mokhtarian

$7,000

5

Derek Brunson

$9,000

6

Dominique Steele

$8,500

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Derrick Lewis

$8,200

2

A.Mokhtarian

$7,000

3

Tim Elliott

$8,700

4

Ion Cutelaba

$8,900

5

Vinc Pichel

$7,800

6

Zak Ottow

$9,100

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Derrick Lewis

$8,200

2

Tim Elliott

$8,700

3

Zak Ottow

$9,100

4

Derek Brunson

$9,000

5

Henrique da Silva

$7,300

6

Luke Jumeau

$7,700