We are back at it after only 6 days off! UFC 212 travels to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and pits many Brazilian MMA studs against many non-Brazilian fighters. You can see this blatantly on the card, and there’s nothing wrong with that, but remember that some of these razor thin decisions could be weird decisions due to the Brazilian judges.

The main event has Jose Aldo up against Max Holloway, and this is one of the best matchups that we’ll see as fans all year! Trust me, this thing will be entertaining as hell, with both fighters throwing down with precision, and authority. This will be one for the ages, mark my words! On to the fights.

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Deiveson Alcantra

Figueiredo

Vs.

Marco Beltran

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

0

Record

8

4

0

0

UFC Record

3

1

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,500

DK Salary

$7,700

-140

Vegas Odds

120

9%

% Fights to Dec

17%

0

# of UFC Fights

4

 
Snapshot:
 
This is an interesting matchup in the first prelim fight of the night. Figueirdo is making his debut in the UFC, and he has had a pretty impressive run in the regional ranks, with 10 stoppages in his 11 wins. Watching film on him, I don’t see effect defense though, and this concerns me.

Beltran has the size, experience, and technique to overcome the red hot Figueirdo. Beltran is dropping down a weight class though, so the weight cut could be an issue for him. Keep an eye on him at weigh-ins, and if he looks off, you may want to fade him a bit, but for now, I think Beltran is a great opportunity to save some salary in your lineups.

PICK: Beltran/Dec/Unan

Cash Game: Beltran (7/10): Good chance to save some salary, and I think he wins here. That’s what you want in cash.

GPP: Beltran (7.5/10): I think he’ll be highly owned in the spot, and this is the only thing keeping me from giving him more than a 7.5.

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Luan Chagas

Vs.

Jim Wallhead

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

2

Record

29

10

0

1

UFC Record

0

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

-255

Vegas Odds

215

0%

% Fights to Dec

33%

1

# of UFC Fights

1

 
Snapshot:
 
Luan Chagas is 14 years younger than “Judo” Jim Wallhead! Yes, 14 years! He could almost be his Dad! The additional 14 years is not an advantage for Wallhead in this situation, as Chagas is tallented. With 14 pro fights under his belt, he has never gone to a decision, and this is exactly what we like to see in a fighter when we are looking to roster them in DFS.

Wallhead has been through some wars, and I think this will be his downfall (as well as his age). I foresee Chagas figuring out the flow of the fight, and putting an end to Wallhead’s UFC run with a vicious KO within the 1st 2 rounds. Chagas will definitely be a fighter I’m targeting all formats.

PICK: Chagas/KO/2nd

Cash Game: Chagas (8/10): I like Chagas here a lot.

GPP: Chagas (7/10): I like him more in Cash, as he may be limited at scoring points against Wallhead if he gets a decision victory.

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Viviane Pereira

Vs.

Jamie Moyle

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

0

Record

4

1

1

0

UFC Record

1

0

5

0

Record Last 5

4

0

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-130

Vegas Odds

110

50%

% Fights to Dec

80%

1

# of UFC Fights

1

Snapshot:

This won’t take long: very tough fight to call, and I don’t see much actiivity in the match to want to own either of these fighters. This could be a serious snooze-fest, especially with how many decisions there are between this two fighters. Nothing to see here from a DFS perspective. Move along.

PICK: Pereira/Dec/Unan

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Iuri Alcantara

Vs.

Brian Kelleher

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

34

7

Record

16

7

9

4

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-140

Vegas Odds

270

29%

% Fights to Dec

26%

13

# of UFC Fights

0

 
Snapshot:
 
In the 4th fight of the evening, the Brazilian, Irui Alcantara takes on the New York native, Brian Kelleher. This is Kelleher’s debut in the UFC Octagon, so there may be some jitters, but he is a very experienced fighter at the regional level, so he may brush these jitters aside quickly. Iuri Alcantara is fighting in front of his home town crowd, and he currently stands with a 9-4 UFC record. He has a $9,100 salary, which doesn’t necessarily align with the the current line of -140.

Iuri is dangerous, but Kelliher is a scrappy fighter who has waited a long time to get to this level, and he will want to seize the day like no other. Alcantara’s price tag of $9,100 has me fading him in DFS. I will have some exposure to Kelliher in some GPP LU’s due to his low price tag, and highish upside of winning this fight as a live dog!

PICK: Alcantara/Dec/Unan (but I hate his salary, so I’ll avoid him)

Cash Game: Kelleher (6/10): Not a high confidence level that he’ll win, but he’ll definitely save you some coin!

GPP: Kelleher (8/10): I don’t think he’ll have too high of an ownership, and he has a very attractive price tag, and a serious shot at winning.

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Johnny Eduardo

Vs.

Matthew Lopez

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

28

10

Record

9

1

3

2

UFC Record

1

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

170

Vegas Odds

-200

24%

% Fights to Dec

20%

5

# of UFC Fights

2

 
Snapshot:

The 5th fight of the night pits the 21 year pro MMA veteran, Johnny Eduardo, takes on the submission wrestler, Matthew Lopez. Lopez is 9 years younger than Eduardo, which could be a factor if Eduardo gases, but I don’t think this line or these salaries should be anywhere near where they currently are. Here’s my thought on this fight, and why I think the Vegas line and DK salaries are way off:

Eduardo is a striking stud! He is the striking coach for Nova Uniao, and trains the likes of Jose Aldo. Not only is he a very impressive striker with his low kicks and lighting quick hands, but he also has great takedown defense like most of the fighters in the Nova Uniao camp. I foresee Lopez trying to take down the Brazilian with little success. Eduardo will work his counter punching, and will eventually land a stinging shot on the chin of Lopez, which will put him to the canvas, and Eduardo will swarm and be pulled off of the defenseless Lopez. This is not a big enough “IF” to justify this line! I think this line should be closer to even money, and have no idea why it’s priced like this on DK. The only downfall I see is if Eduardo gases, and then Lopez gets him to the mat, and rides top position for the remainder of the round using effective ground in pound. The odds of this happening are not matching up with the line or the salaries. There is value here, and I think Eduardo can score A LOT of points with his effective striking style, and most likely will get the finish in the first two rounds and rack up 100+ points within your LU’s.

PICK: Eduardo/TKO/2nd

Cash Game: Eduardo (8/10): Loving the opportunity to save some salary cap here!

GPP: Eduardo (8.5/10): Again, a salary cap saver, and odds to score high on DK are good. Only downside is he’ll be highly owned because of this combination.

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Eric Spicely

Vs.

Antonio Carlos Jr.

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

1

Record

7

2

2

1

UFC Record

4

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

185

Vegas Odds

-225

18%

% Fights to Dec

33%

3

# of UFC Fights

6

 
Snapshot:

Call me a weirdo, but I cannot wait to see what happens in this fight. I’ve seen Eric Spicely fight live before, and I’ve seen many of his fights, and his ground game is top notch, and can compete with anyone’s ground game in the UFC. Antonio Carlos Jr. is not slouch on the ground, as he is a BJJ black belt in his own right. Watching these two go at it on the ground will be fun to watch, but like some many high-level BJJ grapplers, a ground war for these two could turn out to be a defensive BJJ battle where they cancel each other out.

Spicley is extremely dangerous on the ground, but his striking is very weak, and he will not be able to compete on the feet with Carlos Jr., and as we all know, every round starts on the feet, so Carlos Jr. is going to start with a big advantage the start of each round.

If Spicely can force the fight to the ground, then I think he has a shot at pulling another crazy upset, but that is a pretty big “IF” with Antonio Carlos Jr. I think that Carlos Jr wins by TKO within the 1st two rounds, but if Spicely can get the fight to the ground, don’t blink.

PICK: Antonio Carlos Jr/TKO/1st

Cash Game: N/A: Not loving either here.

GPP: Carlos Jr. (7/10): I like the odds for a 1st rnd KO, but I don’t love the odds of a victory here. He’ll be highly owned too.

Spicely (7.5/10): I like Spicely better in GPP, and will have some exposure to him due to his price tag, low ownership, and possibility of 1st rnd sub.

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Marlon Moraes

Vs.

Raphael Assuncao

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

18

4

Record

24

5

0

0

UFC Record

8

2

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,700

DK Salary

$7,500

-170

Vegas Odds

150

23%

% Fights to Dec

48%

0

# of UFC Fights

10

 
Snapshot:

Here’s another fight where I think the odds and pricing are off just a bit. Moraes is a stud who has spent 4 years dominating WSOF lesser talent, and if you watch any tape on him you’ll see a guy who has some seriously precise, impressive striking. Assuncao is by no means a push-over, and with Moraes making his UFC debut, you could argue that he may have some jitters, especially with fighting on the road against a home vet in Assuncao. Raphael Assuncao has fought the best of the best in this division, where Moraes opponents have been at a much lesser talent level. This could prove to a big differentiator for the two, giving Assuncao the advantage, but Moraes trains with Edson Barboza, Frankie Edgar, and the other studs with Mark Henry in New Jersey, and I think this helps him overcome his lack of competition within the WSOF organization .

All-in-all, this is a really tough fight to call in my eyes, and if I were a Vegas or DraftKings handicapper, then I’d be putting this one at closer to even money, so I think there is some value here. I see some value in Assuncao with his $7,500 price tag, and I will have some exposure to him in GPP’s due to his odds of pulling out an upset victory. I will not own much of either of these fighters though, as this could be a slow, sluggish, counter striking affair that does not rack up many points on DK. This is what I think will happen and these guys will not be any of the top scorers on the night in DFS.

PICK: Moraes/Dec/Split

Cash Game: N/A: too tough to call this one.

GPP: Assuncao (7/10): I like his cheap price tag, and his odds to win are closer than the salaries dictate. I am scared of a low scoring affair though.

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Erick Silva

Vs.

Yancy Medeiros

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

6

Record

13

4

7

6

UFC Record

4

4

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,000

DK Salary

$8,200

120

Vegas Odds

-140

24%

% Fights to Dec

24%

13

# of UFC Fights

8

 
Snapshot:

Another tough fight to call here. I want to give Medeiros the edge here, but he really scares the shit out of me, so I won’t have much, if any, exposure to this fight on either side when it comes to DFS.

Silva was touted as a rising star earlier in his UFC career, but in the wake of a lot of hard fought battles, his chin just isn’t what it used to be, and I could foresee Medeiros landing something sneaky on Silva’s chin, but that’s a BIG “IF”. Silva is very polished on the ground, and will have a big advantage over Medeiros, but with how Silva has looked recently, I just can’t justify throwing him in any lineups.

This is a very difficult fight to call, and could go either way. With that being said, I think there are many other value opportunities to focus on when it comes to this card, so we don’t need to bother with this matchup.

PICK: Medeiros/TKO/2nd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Main Card

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Paulo Henrique

Costa Borrachinha

Vs.

Oluwale Bamgbose

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

0

Record

6

2

1

0

UFC Record

1

2

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-275

Vegas Odds

235

0%

% Fights to Dec

13%

1

# of UFC Fights

3

 
Snapshot:

Don’t blink! This one has some serious fireworks that will go off as soon as the bell starts this contest. Combined, 14 of their 15 wins have come by the way of knock out, so I don’t foresee this one going to the ground. Now if you know much about MMA, then you know that anything can happen in any fight, regardless of the betting odds (see Cirkunov, Misha from last week). Yes, Borrachinha is undefeated with some impressive KO victories, but don’t slouch on Bamgbose, as he throws some seriously heavy hands and only needs to land one.

Ignore the odds, and ignore the salaries. This fight could go either way with these men wearing small 4 ounce gloves. It doesn’t take much to turn the lights out, so don’t go grab a beer, or take a smoke break during this part of the card! I feel as though Borrachinha should win this one because he is in front of his home crowd, but like I said, I’m not extremely confident in that outcome due to the crazy things that happen inside the UFC Octagon. I’ll have exposure to both in GPP due to the upside of a 1st rnd KO, but I’ll most likely be avoiding in Cash game LU’s due to the unpredictability of this matchup.

PICK: Borrachinha/KO/1st

Cash Game: N/A: Flip a coin, and those aren’t the type of guys you want on your Cash game roster. You want guarantees.

GPP: Borrachinha (7/10:) I like his style for a high points machine. Many others may be on him as well though.

Bamgbose (8/10): I like his low salary, and his chance of ending this one with an upset early on are better than the odds or DK salary suggest, so there is value here, and that’s what we’re looking for, but you will be rolling the proverbial dice with Bamgbose. He will be popular for this reason though, so this limits my rank on him to an 8 out of 10 in GPP’s.

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Vitor Belfort

Vs.

Nate Marquardt

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

13

Record

35

17

14

9

UFC Record

13

10

2

3

Record Last 5

2

3

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-160

Vegas Odds

140

24%

% Fights to Dec

35%

23

# of UFC Fights

23

 
Snapshot:

Now onto the Masters Division competition between 40 year old Vitor Belfort who stands at 25-13 in his 20+ year MMA career, takes on the 38 year old Nate “The Great” Marquardt who currently stands at 35-17. That is 90 pro MMA fights between these two legends! 90! Yes, I had to use a calculator to figure that out.

Belfort has let it be known that this is his last fight of his MMA career, but over the past day or so there has been some rumors he may try and finish out his UFC contract which has a few more fights on it. For his own sake, I really hope this is his last fight. It is taking place in front of his hometown crowd of Rio de Janeiro, so he’ll want to go out on top, and will work until he’s either unconcious, or has his hand raised in victory.

Neither fighter can take a punch like they used to. Combined, they have been KO’ed 12 times in their lengthy careers, and 8 of those KO’s have come in the past 5 years. There chins aren’t there anymore, so this one should be over in the first if they stand and bang like I suspect they will.

PICK: Belfort/KO/1st

Cash Game: N/A: Too many question marks here. Just watch.

GPP: Belfort (6.5/10): I’ll have some exposure to Belfort, as I think he’ll pull this one off in front of his adoring fans.

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Claudia Gadelha

Vs.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

2

Record

10

1

3

2

UFC Record

3

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-340

Vegas Odds

280

50%

% Fights to Dec

73%

5

# of UFC Fights

4

 
Snapshot:

I really like this matchup between Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz (KK from now on, that’s too tough to type). Gadelha could easily be the current champ if she had a gas tank for 5 rounds, and this is a concern in this fight. KK has a gas tank, and is mean as hell, and wants a war. This could be a bad thing for Gadelha in the late rounds, especially if she has not improved her cardio since her last few fights.

KK is a capable striker, but her technique isn’t great. She wants to get into a war that tests the will of her opponent, and she will be willing to each shots from the Brazilian if she can pull her into this type of battle. Gadelha has solid combinations, and very good technique on the feet, but she has recently changed camps and moved to New Mexico, and this transition might play some games with her head.

On the ground Gadelha has the advantage, but not by a large margin. If KK is able to tie up Gadelha on her terms and land the elbows and knees that she throws with power, then she’ll have a chance at beating up Gadelha and winning on the judge’s scorecards. If KK cannot control Gadelha against the cage or in a clinch, then I think Gadelha will land vicious combos at will, except for the 3rd rnd once she’s gassed.

This one is closer than the odds and salaries show, but I do like Gadelha’s output, ability to land combinations, and her overall approach in front of her Brazilian faithful.

PICK: Galdeha/Dec/Unan

Cash Game: Galdeha (7/10): I like her odds of winning, and high output. She’ll score some DK points even in a decision.

GPP: Gadelha (8/10:) I think she loads on the striking and racks up 120+ points in the victory, and this is what you want in GPP, but she will be highly owned.

 

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

145

Jose Aldo

Vs.

Max Holloway

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

26

2

Record

17

3

8

1

UFC Record

13

3

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

-145

Vegas Odds

125

36%

% Fights to Dec

50%

9

# of UFC Fights

16

 
Snapshot:

And without further ado, onto the main event of the evening, pitting two champs against each other. Jose Aldo, who’s only lost to Connor McGregor in the last 10 years, takes on the incredibly dangerous Hawaiian Sensation, Max Holloway. This will be a great fight, and one that will keep you on the edge of your seat.

Man I love this matchup! Jose Aldo will come with some heat in front of the crazy Brazilian crowd, but Holloway is never one to back down from anyone, regardless of who he’s fighting, or where the fight’s taking place.

Aldo wants to throw with intention, and he combines his crisp boxing with vicious low kicks that can stop a man in his tracks. Holloway’s game is to throw volume at his foe, but it isn’t sloppy volume. It’s very technical and well thought out. He is a tactician, and one with impressive cardio. He will easily be able to go 5 rounds with Aldo, but he will not come out unscthed during this war.

This one is so razor thin, and I could see it going either way, but when it comes to DraftKings, Holloway is the more attractive fighter. When looking to place a striker on your roster, you always want to know what their striking output is. When looking at this striker vs. striker matchup we have Holloway throwing 13.19 strikes per minute, and Aldo only throwing an average of 7.63 strikes per minute. This is a big gap, and a gap that we want to expose within our LU’s. As I said, this fight could go either way, but I think Holloway’s output, accuracy, and ability to compete in the trenches allows him to seize the belt in an incredibly high-scoring 5 round affair. You need at least one of these fighters in your GPP LU’s, and if I were you’d I’d stack these two and put them both in your Cash game LU’s. The fight is just too close to call, and they will both be scoring enough points throughout 5 rounds to justify the stack.

PICK: Holloway/Dec/Split

Cash Game: Stack Em’: I love ‘em both in a Cash game format. Putting both in your LU.

GPP: About equal value in GPP, so whomever you feel is going to win, then go with.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Max Holloway

$8,100

2

Claudia Gadelha

$9,000

3

Johnny Eduardo

$7,600

4

Marco Beltran

$7,700

5

Jose Aldo

$8,100

6

Iuri Alcantara

$9,100

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Max Holloway

$8,100

2

Claudia Gadelha

$9,000

3

Johnny Eduardo

$7,600

4

Luan Chagas

$8,800

5

Antonio Carlos Jr.

$8,900

6

Raphael Assuncao

$7,500

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Max Holloway

$8,100

2

Claudia Gadelha

$9,000

3

Johnny Eduardo

$7,600

4

Marco Beltran

$7,700

5

P. Borrachinha

$9,200

6

Vitor Belfort

$8,400

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Max Holloway

$8,100

2

Claudia Gadelha

$9,000

3

Johnny Eduardo*

$7,600

4

Oluwale Bamgbose

$7,000

5

Iuri Alcantara

$9,100

6

Antonio Carlos Jr.

$8,900

*Feel free to pivot with Spicely in this spot to be more contrarian.