CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.25.2021 (3-Match)

Virtus.Pro (Ranked 4th in World) @ Endpoint (Ranked 36th in World)

Betting Odds: Virtus.Pro -590/Endpoint +375

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +145/Under -195

*This is the opening best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Virtus.Pro For the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.27 Rating, Jame 1.09, buster 0.95, qikert 0.93, SANJI 0.84.

*Virtus.Pro For the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.27 Rating, Jame 1.24, buster 1.07, qikert 1.01, SANJI 0.96.

*Endpoint For the Last Month of Play (26 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.17 Rating, robiin 1.12, flameZ 1.12, Surreal 0.99, MiGHTYMAX 0.91.

*Endpoint For the Last Three Months of Play (46 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.15 Rating, flameZ 1.12, robiin 1.11, Surreal 1.03, MiGHTYMAX 0.97.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played twice I the last six months with V.Pro winning both matches, and the most recent in a 2-0 a sweep, with the latter going three-maps.

*Top Performers for V.Pro (5 Maps): qikert +40 K-D Diff, 1.59 K-D, 1.42 Rating. Jame +33 K-D Diff, 1.52 K-D, 1.23 Rating. YEKINDAR +25 K-D Diff, 1.31 K-D, 1.29 Rating. buster +17 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.11 Rating.

*Top Performers for Endpoint (5 Maps): No positive stat-lines for this span.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for V.Pro and Overpass for Endpoint. I think we see Dust2 for V.Pro and Train for Endpoint.

*V.Pro on Dust2 (9 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.23 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 85.0 ADR. Jame 1.21, qikert 1.06, SANJI 0.99, buster 0.99. On Train (4 Maps): buster 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.98 IMP, 74.4 ADR. Jame 0.97, YEKINDAR 0.94, SANJI 0.81, qikert 0.80.

*Endpoint on Train (5 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.23 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 77.8 ADR. MiGHTYMAX 1.22, robiin 1.07, flameZ 1.03, Surral 0.94. On Dust2 (6 Maps): robiin 1.22 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 91.8 ADR. CRUC1AL 1.18, Surreal 1.11, flameZ 1.03, MiGHTYMAX 0.82.

Analysis: Endpoint are not supposed to get anywhere close in the match if we are looking directly at the oddsmakers lines set forth for this match. I do need to point out that they have won seven-straight matches coming into this match, and yes, I know that V.Pro is an amazing team, but this is also their first match back in four weeks for competitive play. I could easily see a scenario where Endpoint jumps out quick and wins a map in this match. Their numbers really aren’t all that horrible to be flat out honest. Think this match could turn out a bit more interesting than the odds are showing.

 

 

Liquid (Ranked 5th in World) @ fnatic (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: Liquid -155/fnatic +120

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is an opening best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Liquid For the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): EliGE 1.22 Rating, NAF 1.15, Grim 1.00, Stewie2K 0.97, FalleN 0.86.

*Liquid For the Last Three Months of Play (35 Maps): EliGE 1.18 Rating, NAF 1.16, Grim 0.98, FalleN 0.86.

*fnatic For the Last Month of Play (0 Maps): fnatic have not played a major Event over the last month.

*fnatic For the Last Three Months of Play (15 Maps): KRIMZ 1.12 Rating, Brollan 1.09, Jackinho 1.01, Golden 0.91, JW 0.88.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams haven’t played any matches in recent memory.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for fnatic and Train for Liquid. I think we see Liquid go with Mirage and fnatic go with Inferno.

*Liquid on Mirage (2 Maps): NAF 1.28 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 85.6 ADR. Stewie2K 1.19, Grim 1.16, EliGE 0.87, FalleN 0.75. On Inferno (2 Maps): EliGE 1.10 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 83.4 ADR. NAF 1.03, Grim 1.02, Stewie2K 0.95, FalleN 0.62.

*fnatic on Inferno (4 Maps): Brollan 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 82.3 ADR. KRIMZ 1.15, Jackinho 1.08,  Golden 0.95, JW 0.89. On Mirage (3 Maps): Brollan 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.51 IMP, 91.6 ADR. KRIMZ 1.16, Jackinho 1.07, JW 1.02, Golden 0.94.

Analysis: I am quite intrigued by the odds on this match as Liquid is a very, very small favorite and they are “publicly” precepted as a much better team here. Fnatic is that team I can never get right, but I feel they do have some value in this match. Liquid “should” win, but fnatic wasn’t playing very badly when they first debuted Jackinho roughly 2-3 months ago at cs_summit 7. I think fnatic could win a map easily, but I do think Liquid does win this match.

 

Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World) @ Evil Geniuses (Ranked 14th in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -455/EG +305

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -170

*This is an opening best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Astralis For the Last Month of Play (3 Maps): device 1.18 Rating, Magisk 1.04, dupreeh 1.03, gla1ve 0.95, Xyp9x 0.69.

*Astralis For the Last Three Months of Play (27 Maps): device 1.15 Rating, dupreeh 1.13, gla1ve 1.03, Xyp9x 1.01, Magisk 0.99.

*EG For the Last Month of Play (0 Maps): EG hasn’t played a Major Event in the last month.

*EG For the Last Three Months of Play (31 Maps): Brehze 1.05 Rating, CeRq 0.97, Tarik 0.92, Stanislaw 0.86. (oBo has yet to play any major matches as the new addition to EG)

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played four matches in recent memory with Astralis winning three of the four with those three wins being the last three-straight matches played. Three of the four matches did also go three-full maps to boot.

*Top Performers for Astralis (5 Maps): device +40 K-D Diff, 1.62 K-D, 1.31 Rating. Xyp9x +32 K-D Diff, 1.49 K-D, 1.37 Rating. gla1ve +23 K-D Diff, 1.38 K-D, 1.23 Rating. dupreeh +20 K-D Diff, 1.32 K-D, 1.17 Rating.

*Top Performers for EG (5 Maps): No positive stat-lines for this span.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for EG and Mirage for Astralis. I think we see Inferno for EG and Nuke for Astralis.

*EG on Inferno (10 Maps): CeRq 1.11 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 0.93 IMP, 71.1 ADR. Brehze 1.01, Tarik 0.99, Stanislaw 0.89. On Nuke (8 Maps): Brehze 1.19 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 82.1 ADR. Stanislaw 1.08, CeRq 1.06, Tarik 1.02.

*Astralis on Nuke (2 Maps): Xyp9x 1.57 Rating, 1.00 KPR, 1.67 IMP, 100.8 ADR. gla1ve 1.34, device 1.22, Magisk 1.11, dupreeh 0.88. On Inferno (10 Maps): dupreeh 1.23 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 83.9 ADR. device 1.11, gla1ve 1.03, Magisk 0.96, Xyp9x 0.89.

Analysis: EG hasn’t played any major events with oBo yet and this is not the greatest draw as his debut and their first match in weeks. I think Astralis likely wins this match quite easily. It is very hard to build rapport and chemistry with a new player only in practice, without playing major Event matches at all. I think they might struggle a bit out of the gate, and this is just their first match, but I think you have to like Astralis here.

 

*TOP STACKS (Ranked in Order): Virtus.Pro, Astralis, Liquid

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (Ranked in Order): fnatic, Endpoint

*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): YEKINDAR, Jame, device, KRIMZ, CRUC1AL, Brollan, dupreeh

*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): EliGE, Xyp9x, buster, qikert, Jackinho, gla1ve, robiin.