CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.22.2021 (3-Match)
TeamOne (Ranked 53rd in World) @ Gambit (Ranked 5th in World)
Betting Odds: Gambit -1110/TeamOne +575
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +190/Under -265
*This is a best of three match for Group C in ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*TeamOne was handed their third loss of Pro League play on Sunday at the hands of a 2-1 decision to Cloud9, while Gambit moved the opposite direction and moved their overall record to 3-0 with another win over NaVi.
*TeamOne for Event (8 Maps): skullz 0.94 Rating, pesadelo 0.92, malbsMd 0.91, Maluk3 0.87, prt 0.84.
*TeamOne for the Last Month of Play (25 Maps): Pesadelo 0.97 Rating, malbsMd 0.97, prt 0.93, Maluk3 0.92, skullz 0.88.
*Gambit For Event (9 Maps): Ax1Le 1.25 Rating, Hobbit 1.23, sh1ro 1.21, Nafany 1.13, interz 1.00.
*Gambit For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): Ax1Le 1.23 Rating, Hobbit 1.18, sh1ro 1.17, Nafany 1.09, interz 1.03.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams faced-off once back in February in a best of one match for a play-in for IEM Katowice and Gambit stroked them on Train to the tune of 16-5.
*Top Performers for TeamOne (1 Map): malsbMd had the best stat-line at -5 K-D Diff, 0.84 Rating, 71.3 ADR.
*Top Performers for Gambit (1 Map): sh1ro +17 K-D Diff, 1.79 Rating, 96.7 ADR. Hobbit +10 K-D Diff, 1.46 Rating, 100.6 ADR. Ax1Le +7 K-D Diff, 1.50 Rating, 96.2 ADR.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for Gambit and Overpass for TeamOne. I believe we see Vertigo from Gambit and Train for TeamOne.
*Gambit on Veritgo (11 Maps): Ax1Le 1.31 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 90.1 ADR. sh1ro 1.28, Hobbit 1.20, Nafany 1.09, interz 1.05. On Train (7 Maps): sh1ro 1.29 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 76.5 ADR. Hobbit 1.27, Ax1Le 1.27, Nafany 1.12, interz 1.03.
*TeamOne on Train (7 Maps): skullz 0.97 Rating, 0.61 KPR, 0.87 IMP, 73.1 ADR. malbsMd 0.94, Maluk3 0.94, pesadelo 0.93, prt 0.81. On Vertigo (1 Map): malbsMd 1.16 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 86.6 ADR. pesadelo 1.01, Maluk3 0.85, skullz 0.83, prt 0.00.
Analysis: I don’t really feel I need to extend too much here, Gambit 2-0 is about a 98% lock.
NaVi (Ranked 1st in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 33rd in World)
Betting Odds: NaVi -400/MIBR +275
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +125/Under -165
*This is a best of three match for Group C in ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*NaVi were dealt a defeat at the hands of Gambit yesterday in a 2-1 result, while MIBR also caught a loss to at the hands of FURIA in a sweeping loss.
*NaVi For Event (8 Maps): s1mple 1.26 Rating, electronic 1.10, flamie 0.94, Perfecto 0.92, Boombl4 0.90.
*NaVi For the Last Month of Play (10 Maps): s1mple 1.21 Rating, electronic 1.04, Perfecto 0.94, flamie 0.93, Boombl4 0.85.
*MIBR For Event (8 Maps): chelo 1.21 Rating, shz 1.06, danoco 0.91, boltz 0.90, yel 0.86.
*MIBR For the Last Month of Play (22 Maps): chelo 1.15 Rating, shz 1.06, boltz 1.04, yel 0.97, danoco 0.93.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams played one match back at the BLAST Premier Springs Groups 2021 Event with NaVi gaining a 2-1 winning result with wins on Dust2 of 16-6 and Mirage 16-11, with MIBR winning Train 16-7.
*Top Performers for NaVi (3 Maps): s1mple +30 K-D Diff, 1.42 Rating, 87.5 ADR. electronic +5 K-D Diff, 1.12 Rating, 82.4 ADR. flamie +4 K-D Diff, 1.11 Rating, 76.2 ADR.
*Top Performers for MIBR (3 Maps): yel +7 K-D Diff, 1.10 Rating, 69.4 ADR. chelo +1 K-D Diff, 1.08 Rating, 86.4 ADR.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for MIBR and Vertigo for NaVi. Believe we see NaVi go with Dust2 and MIBR go with Mirage.
*NaVi on Dust2 (7 Maps): s1mple 1.42 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.53 IMP, 90.2 ADR. electronic 1.22, Boombl4 1.07, flamie 1.01, Perfecto 0.97. On Mirage (6 Maps): s1mple 1.28 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 81.5 ADR. electronic 1.26, Perfecto 1.01, Boombl4 0.95, flamie 0.92.
*MIBR on Mirage (5 Maps): chelo 1.25 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.57 IMP, 87.2 ADR. danoco 1.22, boltz 1.20, shz 1.18, yel 1.04. On Dust2 (3 Maps): shz 1.35 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 93.9 ADR. chelo 1.07, yel 0.99, boltz 0.95, danoco 0.75.
Analysis: I know this won’t be a popular opinion, but I have to go with my gut. I think MIBR can push this match to three maps. Mirage has been good to them, as they have really good numbers on there lately and NaVi has only won 50% of their last six attempts there. I feel this could be the map the steal, and I think NaVi could get them 2-1 here, but I do think there is some value on MIBR in tournaments, as everyone is going to be looking to play NaVi (more so s1mple, and s1mple even tweeted out Sunday that he “physically is not right”). Take that how you will, but I think that MIBR is the leverage on this slate.
Cloud9 (Ranked 26th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 12th in World)
Betting Odds: FURIA -185/Cloud9 +140
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -100/Under -130
*This is a best of three match for Group C in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Cloud9 gained a 2-1 victory over TeamOne to hand them their third loss of Pro League play, while FURIA took care of MIBR in a 2-0 sweep to move to 3-0 on the short Event.
*Cloud9 For Event (9 Maps): Xeppaa 1.06 Rating, es3tag 0.99, floppy 0.98, ALEX 0.96, mezii 0.94.
*Cloud9 For the Last Month of Play (22 Maps): Xeppaa 1.09 Rating, floppy 1.04, es3tag 1.01, mezii 1.01, ALEX 0.96.
*FURIA For Event (6 Maps): arT 1.31 Rating, KSCERATO 1.22, VINI 1.16, junior 1.09, yuurih 1.07.
*FURIA For the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): Same as Event.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have played two matches in 2021 with FURIA winning both in 2-1 results. However, both matches did go three full maps.
*Top Performers for Cloud9 (6 maps): Xeppaa +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.06 Rating.
*Top Performers for FURIA (6 Maps): yuurih +23 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.18 Rating. arT +8 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Mirage for Cloud9. Believe we see Inferno for FURIA and Overpass for Cloud9. ‘
*Cloud9 on Overpass (6 Maps): Xeppaa 1.11 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.00 IMP, 76.9 ADR. mezii 1.09, es3tag 1.04, ALEX 1.03, floppy 0.95. On Inferno (3 Maps): floppy 1.34 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 88.1 ADR. mezii 1.12, Xeppaa 1.08, es3tag 1.06, ALEX 0.88.
*FURIA on Inferno (7 Maps): Junior (1 Map) 1.34 Rating, KSCERATO 1.19 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.02 IMP, 82.0 ADR. yuurih 1.16, arT 1.07, VINI 1.07. On Overpass (5 Maps): KSCERATO 1.25 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 87.0 ADR. arT 1.21, yuurih 1.03, VINI 1.01, junior 0.96.
Analysis: FURIA is running scorching hot in this Event so far and even though the bookmakers are actually giving Cloud9 some credit here, I just don’t see it. FURIA is the much better team here and maps won’t matter that much. Give me FURIA in a sweep.
*TOP STACKS: Gambit, FURIA, NaVi
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: MIBR
*TOP CPT PLAYS: Ax1Le, Hobbit, s1mple, arT, KSCERATO, yuurih, electronic, sh1ro
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: junior, Nafany, boombl4, VINI, floppy, shz, chelo, Xeppaa, danoco