CS:GO DFS Playbook: Snow Sweet Snow 3 Regionals – 3.16.2021 (2-Match)

Izako Boars (Ranked 55th in World) @ Illuminar (Ranked 90th in World)

Betting Odds: Izako Boars -125/Illuminar -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three match for Group D in the Snow Sweet Now 3 Regionals Event.

*Izako Boars will be seeking revenge as their most recent loss just so happen to be an 0-2 result to this same Illuminar team just two days ago with results of 15-11 on Nuke (Boars pick), and 16-13 on Vertigo. The Boars had won back-to-back best of one maps prior to the reverse sweep. Illuminar were losers in their most recent match played to Pompa in a 1-2 result but were on a three-match win streak prior to the loss with wins over the Boars, HONORIS, and Pompa.

*Izako Boars Over the Last Month of Play (5 Maps): Szjen 1.14 Rating, siuhy 1.12, STOMP 1.04, mono 1.03, TOAO 1.01.

*Izako Boars Over the Last Three Months of Play (42 Maps): Szejn 1.13 Rating, siuhy 1.05, STOMP 1.04, mono 1.03, TOAO 0.96.

*Illuminar Over the Last Month of Play (19 Maps): mouz 1.11 Rating, Markos 1.09, morelz 1.07, GruBy 1.03, Sidney 0.97.

*Illuminar Over the Last Three Months of Play (21 Maps): Markos 1.16 Rating, morelz 1.11, mouz 1.04, GruBy 1.04, Sidney 0.88.

H2H Data:

*These two teams as mentioned above did play just two days ago and Illuminar swept the match 2-0.

*Top Performers for Illuminar (2 Maps): mouz +23 K-D Diff, 1.36 Rating, 91.3 ADR. GruBy +6 K-D Diff, 1.18 Rating, 77.7 ADR (also was +8 in First Kill Diff), Markos +5 K-D Diff, 1.22 Rating, 78.6 ADR (Recorded 16 assists also for lead on both teams).

*Top Performers for Izako Boars (2 Maps): siuhy +3 K-D Diff, 1.14 Rating, 87.1 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two ban maps for this match should include Inferno for Illuminar and Dust2 for the Boars. The Boars are undoubtedly going with Train, as they have roughly 60% of the time lately (while also winning nearly 75% of their last 11 tries there compared to just one map played there for Illuminar, but they did win it), and we should see Illuminar go with Mirage.

*Boars on Train (11 Maps): szejn 1.17 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 81.4 ADR. mono 1.09, STOMP 1.06, siuhy 1.04, TOAO 0.97. On Mirage (2 Maps): siuhy 1.28 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.76 KPR, 93.4 ADR. mono 1.12, STOMP 1.11, TOAO 1.04, Szejn 0.89.

*Illuminar on Mirage (11 Maps): Markos 1.22 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 69.0 ADR. morelz 1.20, GruBy 1.11, Sidney 1.09, mouz 1.07. On Train (4 Maps): Sidney 1.24, 0.79 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 84.8 ADR. Markos 1.17, GruBy 1.16, morelz 0.95, mouz 0.85.  

Analysis: The books are calling for a revenge match here for the Boars as they are listed as a slight 1.25-to-1 favorite in this match after being swept by Illuminar two days ago. I am not buying it. This Illuminar team is a new make-up but it features ex-players from AGO (GruBy, Sidney) and Markos from AVEZ. Lots of folks are going to look at the Boars World rank and see they are favored in this match and naturally gravitate to them, not for me. I will be on Illuminar.

 

Wisla Krakow (Ranked 40th in World) @ HONORIS (Ranked 86th in World)

Betting Odds: Wisla Krakow -500/HONORIS +330

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +155/Under -210

*This is a best of three match for Group D in the Snow Sweet Snow 3 Regionals Event.

*Wisla Krakow come into this one scorching hot as they have reeled off three really nice wins, and the teams they beat? Sinners, forZe, and Winstrike, all very good teams in the lower-tier of CS. As far as Honoris, they have lost their last two in a row, while dropping four of their last five matches to boot. Their only win in that span was a best of one against AVEZ.

*Wisla Krakow For the Last Month of Play (29 Maps) Hades 1.18 Rating, Goofy 1.12, jedqr 1.03, ponczek 0.97, SZPERO 0.94.

*Wisla Krakow For the Last Three Months of Play (36 Maps): Hades 1.16 Rating, Goofy 1.12, jedqr 1.06, ponczek 0.96, SZPERO 0.91.

*HONORIS For the Last Month of Play (10 Maps): NEO 0.93 Rating, reiko 0.92, Grucha 0.83, TaZ 0.81, azizz 0.78.

*HONORIS For the Last Three months of Play (39 Maps): reiko 1.10 Rating, azizz 0.98, Grucha 0.94, NEO 0.93, TaZ 0.89.

H2H Data:

*These two teams did play once back in June of 2020 with HONORIS winning it 2-0, but both teams had at least two former players that are no longer part of their cores in this match.

MAPS:

*The likely first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for HONORIS and Vertigo for Wisla Krakow (which happens to be typical first map for HONORIS). I believe we will see Train for Wisla Krakow and Mirage for HONORIS.

*Wisla Krakow on Train (9 Maps): Goofy 1.41 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 98.0 ADR. hades 1.31, jedqr 1.15, SZPERO 1.08, ponczek 1.02. On Mirage (6 Maps): hades 1.04 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.92 IMP, 70.4 ADR. jedqr 1.03, Goofy 0.97, ponczek 0.93, SZPERO 0.75.

*HONORIS on Mirage (7 Maps): azizz 1.06 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 76.3 ADR. reiko 1.05, TaZ 0.94, Grucha 0.92, NEO 0.83. On Train (6 Maps): Grucha 1.13 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 78.2 ADR. azizz 1.07, reiko 1.05, TaZ 0.93, NEO 0.92.

Analysis: Seems like this one is pretty clear that it is Wisla’s match to lose as HONORIS has not been good and their numbers are pretty damn weak over the last three months. Going with the chalk here in Wisla like everyone else likely.

 

*TOP STACKS: Wisla Krakow, Illuminar

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Illuminar

*TOP CPT PLAYS: hades, Goofy, Markos, mouz, morelz

*TOP VALUES: jedqr, GruBy, SZPERO, Sidney, Azizz, Grucha, STOMP