CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.14.2021 (3-Match)

ENCE (Ranked 39th in World) @ NiP (Ranked 12th in World)

Betting Odds: NiP -150/ENCE +115

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*ENCE out-lasted Mousesports for their opening round win for Group B play with a 2-1-winning result, while NiP were swept by G2 in their opening match of play in this group, as well.

*ENCE For Event (3 Maps): dycha 1.00 Rating, Spinx 0.99, allu 0.96, doto 0.96, Snappi 0.83.

*ENCE For Last Month of Play (6 Maps): Spinx 1.16 Rating, dycha 1.08, allu 1.05, doto 1.00, Snappi 0.89.

*NiP For Event (2 Maps): REZ 1.35 Rating, nawwk 1.07, hampus 0.99, Plopski 0.91, Ztr 0.73.

*NiP For Last Month of Play (12 Maps): REZ 1.08 Rating, Plopski 1.07, hampus 0.95, nawwk 0.90, Ztr 0.80.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The two likely first banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for NiP and Vertigo for ENCE. I believe we see ENCE continue to play Train, while NiP likely go with Overpass.

*NiP on Overpass (9 Maps): Plopski 1.14 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 85.0 ADR. REZ 1.10, hampus 0.92, Ztr 0.89, nawwk 0.87. On Train (3 Maps): REZ 1.26 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 86.7 ADR. hampus 1.15, nawwk 1.05, Plopski 1.01, Ztr 0.84.

*ENCE on Train (5 Maps): dycha 1.35 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 99.4 ADR. allu 1.12, Snappi 1.06,  doto 0.97, Spinx 0.93. On Overpass (3 Maps): Spinx 1.26 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 91.8 ADR. allu 1.25 Rating, dycha 1.11, doto 0.98, Snappi 0.93.

Analysis: One of these teams has looked really good lately, and that team is ENCE. They have won back-to-back matches with their new core against both HAVU and Mousesports, two very strong opponents. NiP has lost four in a row dating back to three weeks ago when they were ousted by FURIA in IEM Katowice. They played G2 pretty close but couldn’t pull it together to win a single map in that match. The oddsmakers currently are believing that NiP bounce-back as they are a slight 1.5-to-1 favorite to win this match currently, but I believe I am going to be looking at some ENCE value on this slate.

 

Mousesports (Ranked 15th in World) @ FaZe (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: FaZe -145/Mouse +115

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Mouse found themselves in a 1-2 losing decision against ENCE in their opening match for Group B play as mentioned above, while FaZe ……

*Mousesports For Event (3 Maps): ropz 1.54 Rating, frozen 1.21, acoR 1.09, Bymas 0.93, dexter 0.85

*Mousesports For Last Month of Play (14 Maps): ropz 1.25 Rating, frozen 1.10, acoR 1.03, Bymas 0.93, dexter 0.86.

*FaZe For Event (3 Maps): coldzera 1.15 Rating, Twistzz 1.15, broky 1.15, Karrigan 0.95, rain 0.95.

*FaZe For Last Month of Play (17 Maps): Twistzz 1.08 Rating, coldzera 0.96, broky 0.96, rain 0.95. Karrigan 0.79.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played twice dating back to September of 2020, however, both matches played had at least 2 or more new faces for each squad, so taking the historical head-to-head data with a grain of salt as these two teams have different make-ups now. Mouse did win both matches played however, and both were via the 2-0 sweep.

MAPS:

*The first likely two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for FaZe and Overpass for Mouse. Mouse has been going with Nuke nearly 40% lately, while FaZe continues to play Mirage.

*FaZe on Mirage (6 Maps): Twistzz 1.02 Rating, 0.67 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 73.8 ADR. coldzera 1.00, broky 0.97, Karrigan 0.91, rain 0.88. On Nuke (5 Maps): Twistzz 1.06 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 0.86 IMP, 74.4 ADR. Karrigan 1.02, broky 1.01, rain 1.01, coldzera 0.93.

*Mouse on Nuke (3 Maps): ropz 1.42 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.58 IMP, 93.7 ADR. frozen 1.12, acoR 1.06, Bymas 1.05, dexter 1.02. On Mirage (2 Maps): frozen 1.41 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 96.7 ADR. ropz 1.05, Bymas 1.03, acoR 0.89, dexter 0.59.

Analysis: I really don’t believe FaZe should be favored in this match up. I honestly think Mouse will win this match, it could very well go three maps, but I believe the bigger star power is on the side of Mouse. They let one slip in their opening match against ENCE, despite ropz being +25 K-D Diff, frozen +11, and acoR +8 with NO ENCE players recording a positive stat-line. FaZe could come out a bit flat after a deflating loss against Vitality in their opener. I like Mouse here.

 

Vitality (Ranked 5th in World) @ G2 (Ranked 11th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -165/G2 +125

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Vitality escaped a three-mapper against FaZe on Saturday in a 2-1 result, while G2 routed NiP in a 2-0 sweep for their opening match of Group B play.

*Vitality For Event (3 Maps): ZywOo 1.53 Rating, misutaaa 1.07, shox 1.02, RpK 0.86, apEX 0.77.

*Vitality For Last Month of Play (10 Maps): ZywOo 1.22 Rating, misutaaa 0.97, shox 0.95, apEX 0.94, RpK 0.93.

*G2 For Event (2 Maps): huNter 1.15 Rating, AmaNEk 1.08, JaCkz 1.07, nexa 1.07, NiKo 0.92.

*G2 For Last Month of Play (12 Maps): JaCkz 1.18 Rating (Has only played one match with G2 since returning), huNter 1.15, NiKo 1.11, AmaNEk 1.00, nexa 1.00.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played twice in recent memory back in 2020, however, NiKo was not on G2 for either and KennyS was there for both. Also, Vitality is no longer using a 6-man rotation where Nivera played a few maps. Feel the team dynamics also for this match are very much changed since the last time these two teams played.

MAPS:

*The first likely two ban maps for this match should include Train for Vitality and Overpass for G2. I believe we likely see Vitality go with Dust2, while G2 likely go with Mirage.

*G2 on Mirage (6 Maps): NiKo 1.21 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 85.5 ADR. JaCkz (2 Maps) 1.07, huNter 1.06, nexa 0.98, AmaNEk 0.84. On Dust2 (4 Maps): NiKo 1.28 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 85.5 ADR. huNter 0.98, AmaNEk 0.97, nexa 0.87.

*Vitality on Dust2 (8 Maps): ZywOo 1.49 Rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.61 IMP, 95.3 ADR. apEX 1.12, shox 1.02, misutaaa 1.02, RpK 0.92. On Mirage (4 Maps): ZywOo 1.14 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 72.9 ADR. misutaaa 0.99, RpK 0.95, apEX 0.84, shox 0.83.

Analysis: I believe with NiKo only playing his 2nd match in the new hybrid rifler/AWP role, this is not the time to not have a great AWPer against a guy like ZywOo on the other side. Feel like ZywOo will have another field day here against G2 and the maps will play into his favor as well. Think we see the Fighting ZywOo’s take this match 2-0 after their rusty scare against FaZe on Saturday.

 

*TOP STACKS: Mousesports, Vitality ENCE

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: ENCE

*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, ropz, dycha, frozen, shox, acoR

*TOP VALUES: allu, Bymas, RpK, nawwk, apEX