CS:GO DFS Playbook – ESL Pro League Season 13 3.9.2021 (3-Match)
FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 19th in World) @ Renegades (Ranked 48th in World)
Betting Odds: FPX -330/Renegades +240
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -155
*This is a best of three for Group A play in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*These two teams found defeat in their first rounds of play for Group A. Renegades ran into Heroic and were dealt a 0-2 sweeping loss with a result of 19-16 on Inferno and 16-5 on Train. FPX was also dealt a similar fate in their opening match of Group A play as they were mangled at the hands of Complexity in a 0-2 sweep with results of 16-6 on Nuke and 16-10 on Dust2.
*FPX For Event: STYKO 0.94, Maden 0.82, suNny 0.81, Farlig 0.78, zehN 0.73.
*FPX For Last Month of Play (10 Maps): Maden 1.08 Rating, zehN 1.06, Farlig 0.97, STYKO 0.93, suNny 0.81.
*FPX For the Last Three Months of Play (22 Maps): zehN 1.06 Rating, Farlig 1.05, Maden 1.04, STYKO 0.98, suNny 0.81.
*Renegades For Event: INS 0.98, Hatz 0.97, Sico 0.90, malta 0.88, aliStair 0.58.
*Renegades For Last Three Months of Play (8 Maps): INS 1.06 Rating, Sico 0.92, Hatz 0.92, malta 0.84, aliStair 0.83.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have no prior head-to-head matches played.
MAPS:
*The first two likely bans for this match include Mirage for FPX and Train for Renegades. FPX has chosen Nuke nearly 80% of their last 23 or so maps played, while Renegades are sticking to Inferno roughly 70% of their first maps chosen lately.
*FunPlus Phoenix on Nuke (7 Maps): Maden 1.26 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 88.7 ADR. Farlig 1.12, zehN 1.15 Rating, SYTKO 0.92, suNny 0.86. On Inferno (4 Maps): SYTKO 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 85.7 ADR. zehN 1.19 Rating, Farlig 1.15, Maden 1.02, suNny has not played Inferno over L3 Months.
*Renegades on Inferno (3 Maps): INS 0.95, Hatz 0.94, malta 0.92, Sico 0.90, aliStari 0.64. On Nuke (0 Maps) – They have not played Nuke over the last three months.
Analysis: I think it is a bit clear to see who the favorite is in this match, and it is not solely based on the oddsmaker’s listing FPX as -330 faves either. Renegades did push Heroic into OT on Inferno before losing in three-straight rounds in OT and were trashed by Heroic on Train. I feel that we could likely see a similar scenario here, as we see that FPX actually has really good numbers for both projected maps here. I am going FPX, and I don’t think we see a third map.
Complexity (Ranked 9th in World) @ OG (Ranked 18th in World):
Betting Odds: Complexity -215/OG +160
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +100/Under -135
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Complexity took care of business against Renegades as mentioned above in their opener for Pro League play, while OG also (likely surprisingly to most, except FANation, right?) took home a win in their opener over BIG in a 2-1 result.
*Complexity For Event: poizon 1.42 Rating, blameF 1.31, k0nfig 1.12, RUSH 1.09, jks 1.06.
*Complexity For the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): blameF 1.33 Rating, k0nfig 1.14, poizon 1.13, jks 1.03, RUSH 0.90.
*Complexity For the Last Three Months of Play (33 Maps): blameF 1.16 Rating, poizon 1.14, k0nfig 1.06, jks 0.97, RUSH 0.94.
*OG For Event: niko 1.31 Rating, Aleksib 1.19, mantuu 1.18, valde 1.14, ISSAA 0.97.
*OG For the Last Month of Play (21 Maps): mantuu 1.13, niko 1.11, valde 1.11, ISSAA 1.04, Aleksib 0.99.
*OG For the Last Three Months of Play (44 Maps): valde 1.13 Rating, mantuu 1.09, niko 1.09, Aleksib 1.02, ISSAA 1.02.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played three total matches over the last calendar year with Complexity winning all three, including the last two played by the 2-0 sweep.
*Complexity vs OG (7 Maps): blameF +57 K-D Diff, 1.65 K-D, 1.36 Rating (lahwd). K0nfig +38 K-D Diff, 1.39 K-D, 1.22 Rating. Poizon +37 K-D Diff, 1.38 K-D, 1.26 Rating.
*OG vs Complexity (7 Maps): No OG players were positive for this span.
MAPS:
*The first two likely ban maps for this match include Vertigo for OG and Inferno for Complexity. For the two maps likely chosen, I believe we see Mirage for Complexity and Dust2 for OG.
*Complexity on Mirage (10 Maps): k0nfig 1.21 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 85.2 ADR. blameF 1.20, poizon 1.10, jks 1.07, RUSH 0.97. On Dust2 (7 Maps): blameF 1.16 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 81.1 ADR. Poizon 1.10, k0nfig 1.01, RUSH 0.91, jks 0.88.
*OG on Dust2 (11 Maps): niko 1.10 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 74.6 ADR. valde 1.08 Rating, Aleksib 1.05, mantuu 1.02, ISSAA 0.98. On Mirage (6 Maps): valde 1.17 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 80.0 ADR. Mantuu 1.09, niko 1.04, ISSAA 0.99, Aleksib 0.82.
Analysis: I am not going to lie, I am a bit partial to Complexity at this moment. Just seeing the boys back together (blameF/k0nfig/poizon) is a beautiful site. This team was number ONE in the World with this core and oBo before both oBo and poizon had to step away for personal reasons. Either way, I think that OG is a team that is like alligator blood…they just don’t quit and even when it seems like they are going to get beat easily, they just grind, man. I like the trend of Complexity winning in this series to continue here, but I do think we could EASILY see three maps in this match.
BIG (Ranked 7th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 13th in World)
Betting Odds: BIG -135/Heroic +105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -130
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*BIG were handed a defeat at the hands of OG for the opening match of Pro League with a result of 2-1 as mentioned above, while Heroic gained a win over Renegades as also mentioned above.
*BIG For Event: tabseN 1.00 Rating, tiziaN 0.90, syrsoN 0.89, k1to 0.87, XANTARES 0.83.
*BIG For the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): syrsoN 1.08 Rating, tabseN 1.05, k1to 0.99, XANTARES 0.97, tiziaN 0.88.
*BIG For the Last Three Months of Play (50 Maps): syrsoN 1.14 Rating, XANTARES 1.07, tabseN 1.06, k1to 0.97, tiziaN 0.95.
*Heroic For Event: TeSeS 1.35 Rating, cadiaN 1.24, stavn 1.19, sjuush 1.19, refrezh 1.06.
*Heroic For the Last Month of Play (13 Maps): cadiaN 1.19 Rating, sjuush 1.19, stavn 1.11, TeSeS 1.05, refrezh 0.89.
*Heroic For the Last Three Months of Play (29 Maps): cadiaN 1.09 Rating, sjuush 1.19, stavn 1.06, TeSeS 1.04, refrezh 0.89.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played several times over the last calendar year, seven total to be exact, including their most recent at the IEM Katowice 2021 Event that Heroic swept 2-0. Heroic has won four of the seven matches played, including the last two played. Three of the seven did make it to a third map in this series, also.
*BIG vs Heroic (17 Maps): XANTARES +4, 1.01 K-D, 1.04 Rating.
*Heroic vs BIG (17 Maps): cadiaN +56 K-D Diff, 1.21 K-D, 1.17 Rating. stavn +33 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.13 Rating. TeSeS +13 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.16 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two likely ban maps for this match include Train for BIG and Dust2 for Heroic. I believe we see Nuke for Heroic and Vertigo for BIG (they have a 7-map winning streak going here also).
*Heroic on Nuke (5 Maps): cadiaN 1.08 Rating, 0. 75 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 71.9 ADR. TeSeS 0.92, stavn 0.90 (Neither of sjuush or refrezh has played Nuke over the last three months). On Vertigo (6 Maps): stavn 1.25 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 86.6 ADR. cadiaN 1.18, sjuush 1.17, TeSeS 1.06, refrezh 0.92.
Analysis: I believe Heroic got a pretty decently “easy” draw in their first match of the League, and I don’t see this one going the same way that one did. BIG had been playing really well before their lost to OG yesterday, and I think they will be out for blood here in this one. BIG is likely my favorite stack for this slate.
*TOP STACKS: BIG, FunPlus Phoenix, Complexity
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: OG
*TOP CPT PLAYS: syrsoN, XANTARES, tabseN, blameF, Maden, zehN, poizon, STYKO
*TOP VALUE PLAYS: mantuu, valde, tiziaN, niko, Farlig, cadiaN