CS:GO DFS Playbook – ESL Pro League Season 13 3.8.2021 (3-Match)
Complexity (Ranked 11th in World) @ FunPlus Pheonix (Ranked 19th in World)
Betting Odds: Complexity -200/FPX +150
Map Odds: 2.5 Over 100/Under -130
*This is a best of three match for Group A play for ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Complexity punched their ticket into the DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 Event two days ago with a 2-0 sweep over OG with wins of 16-5 on Mirage and 16-3 on Dust2. They have won two-straight over OG and Movistar Riders, but sustained a 1-2 resulting loss to Mouse the match prior to the 2- match win streak. FPX has found themselves on a small winning streak as well, as they have won three straight over Gambit, sAw, and forZe. They had lost a Grand Final to Spirit by a 3-0 result at the DreamHack Open January 2021 Euro Event before the three-match win streak.
*Complexity Over the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): blameF 1.34 Rating, k0nfig 1.18, poizon 1.11, jks 1.06, RUSH 0.90.
*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play (31 Maps): blameF 1.15 Rating, poizon 1.11, k0nfig 1.06, jks 0.96, RUSH 0.93
*FPX Over the Last Month of Play (8 Maps): Maden 1.14 Rating, zehN 1.13, Farlig 1.01, STYKO 0.93, suNny 0.00 (new to team hasn’t played in months).
*FPX Over the Last Three Months of Play (22 Maps): zehN 1.09 Rating, Farlig 1.07, Maden 1.06, STYKO 0.99, suNny 0.00.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not had any recent head-to-head matches lately.
MAPS:
*The first two likely ban maps for this match include Mirage for FPX and Inferno for Complexity. Mirage is the typical first map chosen for Complexity, so they will likely play a secondary map and I believe it will be Overpass. FPX’s first chosen map lately has been Nuke, and I believe Complexity will be more than happy to play Nuke with them.
*Complexity on Overpass (4 Maps): poizon (2 Maps) 1.26 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.61 IMP, 82.1 ADR. blameF 1.25, k0nfig 0.96, jks 0.90, RUSH 0.90. On Nuke (6 Maps): poizon (4 Maps) 1.12 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 83.7 ADR. blameF 1.02, jks 0.89, k0nfig 0.89, RUSH 0.85.
*FPX on Nuke (6 Maps): Maden 1.28 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 90.0ADR. zehN 1.21 Rating, Farlig 1.17, STYKO 0.96. On Overpass (2 Maps): STYKO 0.87, zehN 0.85, Maden 0.61, Farlig 0.51.
Analysis: I feel like Complexity is back to full-strength with poizon making his return and they have been playing well once again. Not only did they just punch their ticket to DreamHack Masters Spring Event, they also beat Vitality, G2, and Evil Geniuses all by the 2-0 sweep prior to. I do have to give props to FPX however, as they have beat Gambit twice in their last five matches played and we saw Gambit win IEM Katwoice 2021. I think they have played some good competition lately, but Complexity is going to be a tough task for them. Nuke is their only chance at getting a third map here and if they can’t win Nuke, it’s a 2-0 sweep for Complexity.
Heroic (Ranked 14th in World) @ Renegades (Ranked 38th in World)
Betting Odds: Heroic -625/Renegades +395
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +150/Under -205
*This is a best of three match for Group A of the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Heroic have two new faces in refrezh and sjuush, two players they picked up and signed from MAD Lions to replace b0RUP and niko. Heroic have played two matches with the new core and have won both beating Cloud9 in a 2-0 sweep, and beating VOYVODA in a 2-0 sweep, as well. Renegades haven’t played in three weeks but were swept by Virtus.Pro and ran TeamOne into a three-map affair winning it 2-1. Before that, they had lost a play-in best of one match of IEM Katowice Event to Mousesports 16-14.
*Heroic Over the Last Month of Play (11 Maps): sjuush (4 Maps) 1.20 Rating, cadiaN 1.18, stavn 1.10, TeSeS 1.00, refrezh 0.80.
*Heroic Over the Last Three Months of Play (27 Maps): sjuush 1.20 Rating, cadiaN 1.08, stavn 1.05, TeSeS 1.02, refrezh 0.80.
*Renegades Over the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): INS 1.09 Rating, Sico 0.92, Hatz 0.91, aliStair 0.93, malta 0.83.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first two likely ban maps for this match should include Train for Renegades and Dust2 for Heroic. Heroic are choosing Nuke as their first map choice, while Renegades are going with Inferno.
*Heroic on Nuke (5 Maps): cadiaN 1.08 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 71.9 ADR. TeSeS 0.92, stavn 0.90. (refrezh and sjuush have not played Nuke lately). On Inferno (8 Maps): cadiaN 1.13 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 74.8 ADR. TeSeS 1.04, stavn 1.03, sjuush 0.98, refrezh 0.89.
*Renegades on Inferno (10 Maps): INS 1.24 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 87.6 ADR. Hatz 1.18, aliStari 1.17, Sico 1.15, malta 0.91. On Nuke (2 Maps): INS 1.36 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.70 IMP, 103.8 ADR. aliStair 1.18, Malta 0.98, Hatz 0.73, Sico 0.69.
Analysis: On paper this looks like a slam-dunk for Heroic, and they have won two matches with the new squad, but I am not exactly sold on Heroic yet. Renegades are a lower-tier CS team, but they did almost beat Mouse to advance in IEM Katowice, beat TeamOne 2-1 (which they really aren’t that good), and were beat pretty badly against V.Pro, but they were runner-ups for the IEM Katowice title, so that’s expected. I don’t have enough faith in saying that Renegades will win this match, but I do think they make it interesting.
BIG (Ranked 7th in World) @ OG (Ranked 17th in World)
Betting Odds: BIG -285/OG +205
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -150
*This is a best of three match for Group A of the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*OG has welcomed a new played to their roster in niko (I believe, but this may not be who it is for this match), who is replacing NBK. niko was originally on Heroic.
*BIG comes into this match on a two-match losing streak and have lost three of their last four. OG also comes in on a losing streak, having lost their last two-straight, and four of their last five matches played.
*BIG Over the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): syrsoN 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 74.9 ADR. tabseN 1.07, k1to 1.04, XANTARES 1.01, tiziaN 0.87.
*BIG Over the Last Three Months of Play (47 Maps): syrsoN 1.15 Rating, XANTARES 1.08, tabseN 1.07, k1to 0.98, tiziaN 0.95.
*OG Over the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): mantuu 1.12 Rating, valde 1.10, ISSAA 1.05, Aleksib 0.95.
*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play (41 Maps): valde 1.13 Rating, mantuu 1.08, ISSAA 1.03, Aleksib 1.01.
H2H Data:
*These two teams are very familiar with each other as they have played nine total times dating back to June of 2020. BIG has won the last two matches played in a 2-0 sweep, and own five wins to OG’s four for the series.
*BIG vs OG (19 Maps): XANTARES +72 K-D Diff, 1.22 K-D, 1.16 Rating. syrsoN +53 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.12 Rating.
*OG vs BIG (19 Maps): mantuu +32 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.04 Rating. valde +23 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.09 Rating. ISSAA +12 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.03 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two likely ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for OG and Train for BIG. Believe we see Inferno chosen by OG and Nuke by BIG.
*BIG on Nuke (9 Maps): tabseN 1.18 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 89.2 ADR. XANTARES 1.16, syrsoN 1.08, k1to 0.94, tiziaN 0.86. On Inferno (13 Maps): syrsoN 1.15 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 71.6 ADR. XANTARES 1.09, k1to 0.97, tiziaN 0.94, tabseN 0.92.
*OG on Inferno (10 Maps): valde 1.14 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 76.2 ADR. ISSAA 1.03, mantuu 1.02, Aleksib 0.98. On Nuke (5 Maps): Aleksib 1.21 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 85.3 ADR. Mantuu 1.14, valde 1.13, ISSAA 1.04.
Analysis: Neither of these two teams have been playing all that well as of late, and considering OG had to make a roster change, doesnt exaclty bode well for the. The odds are pretty large here on BIG, but I don’t feel they should likely be close to a 3-to-1 favorite. They have won the last two matches head-to-head, so this does bring a little bit of a revenge narrative for OG, as well. Value in this match is on OG.
*TOP STACKS: Complexity, Heroic, OG
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: OG
*TOP CPT PLAYS: blameF, syrsoN, mantuu, valde, poizon, INS, XANTARES, cadiaN
*TOP VALUE PLAYS: tabseN, jks, sjuush, ISSAA, aliStair, k1to, Aleksib, k0nfig